Could DeMar DeRozan be playing for his third team in three years? If one Eastern Conference pretender has their way, he might…and a trade could influence how those free NBA expert picks evaluate both franchises going forward.
In his recent story about the San Antonio Spurs, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer writes that the Orlando Magic have been “scouring the trade market for scoring help” and have already expressed interest in DeRozan.
To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest that the Spurs are even shopping the All-Star shooting guard, nor is there any definitive reports that the Spurs and Magic have talked trade logistics. However, O’Connor does note that DeRozan and the Spurs haven’t seen eye-to-eye when it comes to extension talks, and rival executives wouldn’t be shocked if San Antonio dealt the 30-year-old. DeRozan is a pseudo impending free agent, as the guard will likely opt out of the final year of his contract and hit free agency this summer.
With that caveat aside, how much of an impact would a potential trade have on the rest of the NBA?
Let’s start with the Spurs. San Antonio has been lingering around +6000 odds to win the NBA Championship, tied for the eighth-best mark in their conference. These odds could be partly attributed to the organization’s winning pedigree, as their roster certainly doesn’t look the part of a legitimate contender. Trading DeRozan, who is arguably their best player, would certainly reduce their chances. Putting together trade packages is easier said than done, but even in the unlikely scenario where Orlando is willing to ship Aaron Gordon to San Antonio, the Spurs’ chances of winning it all would still take a massive hit.
What about the Magic? Orlando was already a long-shot to win the Finals, as their odds were around +15000. Adding a talented player like DeRozan would surely make them better, although the guard doesn’t really solve their outside-shooting woes. Further, the Magic would likely be trading away members of their rotation, thus reducing their depth. DeRozan has plenty of playoff experience, so maybe his hypothetical acquisition would have a bigger influence on their Eastern Conference-winning odds (around +7000) and (especially) their division-winning odds. The Magic are currently sitting with the second-best odds (around +500, behind the Heat) to win the Southeast Division.
Perhaps the most notable betting impact would be in regards to All-Star selections. DeRozan has around +500 odds to make the West squad in a very deep conference. Getting traded back to the East would surely help his chances; while Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, and perhaps Ben Simmons seem like locks, DeRozan could surely have an argument against the likes of Kyle Lowry, Trae Young, Khris Middleton, and Jaylen Brown. If you believe that a Derozan-Magic trade is imminent, it may be a good time to capitalize on those +500 All-Star odds.