Discussing shot quality and the Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes and head coach Dave Tippett have the reputation of being a defense first team. A key for any defensive scheme is to limit the amount of quality scoring chances the opponent gets and rely on your goaltender to stop the “routine” shots. In this article we will look mostly at the Arizona Coyotes.

A great deal of work has been done by various members of the media and analytics community regarding shot quality. Corsi has become the most common advanced statistic, however simply out shooting your opponent is not enough. Quality of shots is essential to scoring goals. This has long been the argument against the value of Corsi being that it does not take into account shot quality.

Currently one of the simplest forms of measuring shot quality is through the save percentage while a defender is on the ice and the difference to when they are off the ice. In theory a higher save percentage means that the goaltender is facing a lower quality of shots against. While a lower save percentage indicates that the opposition is getting into the higher percentage scoring areas around the net.

This basic statistic is called “Sv% rel”, or relative save percentage. Commonly a defensive defender placed in a “shutdown” role against a high quality of competition and higher percentage of defensive zone starts will have a Corsi below 50%. This is a function of playing against top end offensive talent and an inherent flaw in Corsi.

This is where Sv% rel can shed some light on the quality of a defensive defenseman. A player like the Montreal Canadiens Mike Weaver or the New Jersey Devils Bryce Salvador have been used as a prime example of this.

On a consistent basis their teams have a better save percentage with them on the ice. While traditional advanced metrics like Corsi show Mike Weaver to be a drain on possession for his teams. Regardless of puck possession if your team saves a higher percentage of shots with a certain defender on the ice that is surely a good sign as to that defenders skill in suppressing shot quality.

The best three Coyotes defenders at suppressing shot quality last season where Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Zbynek Michalek and Chris Summers. However over the course of the past five seasons Keith Yandle has been the best on the Coyotes in terms of this skill. He has had a better on ice save percentage in three of the past five seasons. However in the two of the past three years it has been negative.

One has to be careful to not rely solely on the mythical idea of shot quality . Teams such as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche have fallen into this trap. Good possession ratings and shot quality needs to be considered when creating a successful team.

About Mike Burse

Mike will make the numbers make sense in the NHL for Puck Drunk Love.

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