Dollars and sense: The Jason Spezza contract extension

Formerly with the Ottawa Senators and now a fixture for the Dallas Stars, Jason Spezza is now taking a four year extension to the bank. The contract extension will see Spezza have a $7.5 million salary cap hit until the age of 35. Did the Dallas Stars overpay for his services, or is the money good value?

Over his 12 year NHL career spent mostly with the Ottawa Senators Jason Spezza has been a point per game player with 705 points in 706 games played. He also boasts a plus 40 rating over the course of those 706 career games played.

Only twice in his career has he played less than 60 games in a season. The first time was his first year in the league and the second time was when he missed the majority of the lockout shortened 2012-13 season with a back injury.

In general Jason Spezza has been around a 50% puck possession/shot attempt player. He will never be mistaken for a stalwart defensive center, however if placed in a primarily offensive role he is a very effective player. For the most part he has started less than 30% of his shifts in the defensive zone over the past few seasons. These are the types of minutes a play maker of his caliber needs.

So what the Dallas Stars have is a 6’3″ center that is 31 years old and scores in and around a point per game. did they get good value for signing Jason Spezza at a cap hit of $7.5 million starting next season?

His closest comparable players based on salary and age are Zach Parise of the Minnesota Wild and Rick Nash of the New York Rangers.

Zach Parise is a 30 year old winger that has scored over 0.8 points per game through his NHL career with 516 points in 630 games. Parise has posted a better plus-minus rating than Spezza, currently sitting at plus 77 over the course of his NHL career.

Parise also exceeded Jason Spezza in terms of his puck possession rates with most of his NHL years exceeding 52% shot attempts for. His average rests in the 55% shot attempts for range. Zach Parise’s cap hit is just over $7.5 million per season.

Rick Nash is a 30 year old winger with the New York Rangers and has 648 points in 802 career NHL games, which is good for 0.8 points per game as well. Nash appears to have greater defensive issues than Spezza with a minus 38 rating through his career thus far.

Nash’s puck possession rates have varied greatly. Since 2007 he has three seasons below 50% and five seasons above 50%. This indicates to me that his line mates more than himself drive his possession ratings. Rick Nash’s cap hit is $7.8 million per season.

Overall I would say that Jason Spezza and his salary cap hit of $7.5 million appears to be good value. He is a big play making center which every team is looking for in the NHL these days. His puck possession numbers are not the best of the three, however his scoring prowess exceeds both.

What needs to be remembered is that Jason Spezza’s value comes at the offensive end of the ice. To receive anything more than that is nothing more than a welcome surprise. He is not terrible defensively but he should be in an almost exclusive offensive role with Dallas in order to get a good rate of return on the dollars they have invested in him.

Currently Jason Spezza is by no means one of the faster skaters in the NHL. This indicates that even as he ages and slows down some he will not need to adapt his game to a great extent.

Overall the Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars have a top line point per game NHL center signed for the next four years at a reasonable rate. As long as Star’s fans remember that Spezza is there to provide offensive mainly they will not be disappointed even if there is some regression to his game as he ages.

 

About Mike Burse

Mike will make the numbers make sense in the NHL for Puck Drunk Love.

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