Scoring more goals for than against is key to making the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the NHL, which is definitely not a revolutionary statement by any means. Intuitively, if you score more than your opposition you win games. But can a team make the Stanley Cup Playoffs when they get scored on more than they score? Let’s take a look…
Only 12 teams with a negative goal differential have made the playoffs since the 2004-05 NHL Lockout, which is a sample size (key hockey analytics buzz words!) of nine seasons. Over that time 144 playoff spots were available, therefore a team with a negative goal differential made the playoffs only eight percent of the time. To answer the question, it is possible to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs but I wouldn’t bet your first born on it!
Here is a list of the teams that qualified for the playoffs with negative goal differentials since 2005-06:
- 2005-06 Tampa Bay Lightning -8 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2005-06 Montreal Canadiens -4 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2006-07 Tampa Bay Lightning -8 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2007-08 Boston Bruins -10 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2008-09 Columbus Blue Jackets -4 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2008-09 New York Rangers -8 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2009-10 Montreal Canadiens -6 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2009-10 Ottawa Senators -13 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2011-12 Washington Capitals -8 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2011-12 Florida Panthers -24 Lost in Quarterfinals,
- 2012-13 Minnesota Wild -5 Lost in Quarterfinals, and
- 2013-14 Detroit Red Wings -8 Lost in Quarterfinals.
As you can see among these teams none of them were able to advance past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So even among those teams that defy they odds and make the playoffs, they still don’t go anywhere. Currently the NHL standings have 21 teams with a positive goal differential.
The nine teams on the outside looking in are San Jose, Winnipeg, Dallas, Carolina, Edmonton, Arizona, Colorado, Columbus and Buffalo. Both San Jose and Dallas appear most likely to pull out of this and compete for a playoff spot.
Regardless, it appears we are in for a tight playoff race once again this season with only 16 spots and 21 teams sporting a positive goal differential right now. Great news for any hockey fan!
