Here are five players who I think are bound for regression in 2015-16 following great seasons in 2014-15. Disagree? Sound off in the comments or add players you think we missed.
Dennis Wideman – Calgary Flames
UNIONDALE, NY – FEBRUARY 6: Dennis Wideman #6 of the Calgary Flames in action against the New York Islanders at Nassau Coliseum on February 6, 2014 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
Wideman had an excellent 2014-15 for the Calgary Flames. The 32-year-old defenseman played top-pairing minutes (24:39 TOI) while putting up a career-high 15 goals and 56 points last year. While his possession numbers were poor, he played a very big role when Flames captain Mark Giordano was on the DL.
With the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton on draft day, it’s very unlikely Wideman will have a similar role to the one he held last year. If everyone is healthy, Wideman is at best a second pair defenseman and may even be best suited to slot in with the third pair. It would be very surprising if he put up 21 power play points considering his role will likely be diminished. That’s no indictment on Wideman, but he’s got three studs in front of him in T.J. Brodie, Hamilton and Giordano. There’s just not as big of a need for him. The Flames are reportedly shopping him, and should he go to a team with a need for an offensive D-man, he could possibly maintain his numbers. If he stays with Calgary, it’s going to be very hard to do.
Trevor Daley – Chicago Blackhawks
Daley, like Wideman, is another poor possession player who was forced to play top-pair minutes, scored in double digit goals (16) and seemingly had a very good 2014-15 with the Dallas Stars.
https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/619700893777313794
Daley should be more sheltered in Chicago and won’t be playing top-pair minutes thanks to the talented group the Blackhawks have. While I don’t expect him to be unproductive, there’s almost no way he will post a similar goal total to the one he did last year. The thing that’s really going to bring down Daley’s numbers is the fact he shot a ridiculously lucky shooting percentage at 14.2% in 2014-15. Just how crazy is that number? Daley’s previous career high was 8.4% and his career rate is 6.5%. So considering he almost doubled his career high, that’s bound to drop.
Nick Foligno – Columbus Blue Jackets
BOSTON, MA – JANUARY 17: Nick Foligno #71 of the Columbus Blue Jackets looks on during the game against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on January 17, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Foligno had a breakout year last season, posting 31 goals and 72 points in his third season with Columbus. His strong play earned him a six-year $33 million deal, which was well deserved. He’s a valuable player, and should be an important piece for the Blue Jackets for years to come. With that said, it’s unlikely he puts up the same impressive numbers.
Foligno’s biggest goal total before the season started was 18. His breakout season was brought on by shooting the puck more than ever (182 shots) which led to a career high shooting percentage (17.0%). He got a bigger role last year, playing legitimate top line minutes both at even strength and on the power play. Of course, playing with Ryan Johansen and Scott Hartnell will help boost a player’s numbers.
The X-factor to his regression, aside from a likely dropping shooting percentage, is the acquisition of fellow left-winger (who can also play on the right side) Brandon Saad and how they plan to deploy him. If Saad gets top-line minutes, that could bump Foligno slightly down the lineup. While the drop won’t be cataclysmic, it, plus the fact it’shard to predict if he can repeat his success at last year’s level, suggests he may not be a 30-goal guy next year. I hope I’m wrong. The captain is still going to be a key factor no matter if his numbers dip or not.
Matt Beleskey – Boston Bruins
CHICAGO, IL – MAY 23: Matt Beleskey #39 of the Anaheim Ducks takes a shot against Corey Crawford #50 of the Chicago Blackhawks in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center on May 23, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
This one’s a bit of a gimme, given Beleskey is probably not going to score at a 30-goal pace again next season. He posted a robust 15.2 shooting percentage and his underwhelming track record suggests that’s more of a fluke than a sign of things to come. That doesn’t mean Beleskey isn’t a valuable player. While many were pegging him as the next David Clarkson based on the contract he was rumored to get, the Bruins signed him at a reasonable 5-year $19.8 million contract. The hard-working Beleskey will likely be around the 15 goal mark, topping out around 20, which is by no means bad. He’s just not going to score at last season’s pace – and that’s OK.
Tyler Bozak – Toronto Maple Leafs
TORONTO, ON – APRIL 1: Tyler Bozak #42 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against the Calgary Flames during an NHL game at the Air Canada Centre on April 1, 2014 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Leafs defeated the Flames 3-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
This is going to be an interesting season for the Leafs center. He’s entering his first season without former linemate Phil Kessel, who was a big factor in why Bozak has posted solid goal and point totals in his career.
He quietly posted a career-high 23 goals last season, but it would be frankly shocking if he produced similar numbers without Kessel. With Nazem Kadri moving ahead of him on the depth chart, and the addition of Shawn Matthias, he’s likely going to see his role decreased.
Bozak has been given first line center minutes for a large majority of his Leafs career, and has not come close to producing at the 1C level – never having 50+ points in his career. Now it’s not all Bozak’s fault, he was miscast by the Leafs. He’s a poor possession player who’s best suited as a third line center. That doesn’t exactly scream breakout.
