As the postseason continues to chug along, the other teams in the league have turned their eyes elsewhere to a place where hopes and dreams seem just as grand as the Stanley Cup. I am of course talking about the NHL offseason. A player who is improving his stock much more than anyone else with each game played is Anaheim Ducks winger Matt Beleskey. While having a strong regular season will most certainly help his case, this postseason may just end up putting him over the top as the slam dunk free agent this summer. While the summer of analytics has come and gone this may be the first summer we see teams actually utilize them and pass on the flash in pan player and try to find a player that can be had at a much more reasonable cap hit. Which camp does Beleskey fall under? Is he bound to be the next David Clarkson?
People have been worried about the proper value of Beleskey after he broke out with 22 goals and 10 assists this regular season but as a regular listener of the Steve Dangle Podcast, I have heard multiple times from their host Adam Wylde about how he believes Beleskey is only a player having a career year and will have a path similar to David Clarkson after his signing with the Leafs. Delving a little deeper we can see just how similar they are almost to a startling degree at times.
The starting point in our comparison has to be their career years and both are very, very close when delving into the numbers. This year Beleskey had 2.0 p/60 in all situations, a good rate that plants him in a top six role on many teams in the NHL. Clarkson in his 30 goal season (11-12′) scored at a 2.1 p/60 pace which oddly enough is not the best year he had in that category. Clarkson also found success during the 09-10′ season averaging 2.2 p/60 but that along with his breakout season found him starting a bunch in the offensive zone. Comparing it to Beleskey, they both seem to find great success in limited minutes with high offensive zone starts. Beleskey in 13-14′ had similar p/60 but his personal shooting percentage has nearly doubled this year which explains his high goal totals.
Beleskey is having career high shooting percentage numbers this year and is nearly doubling the league average. He is bound to see some regression on a team that isn’t nearly as good as the Ducks. Beleskey’s CF% in all situations is also extremely high at 57.2%, this isn’t to discredit what he has done this year but it is unlikely for him to repeat the success he has seen this year. Much like Clarkson who doubled his average career shooting percentage in his career year, Beleskey is going to be staring down contracts with long term and plenty of compensation. What is going to be the best situation for Beleskey to go into if he isn’t resigned by the Ducks?
The market for someone like Beleskey is going to be interesting, he is going to be considered a top six player and with a free agent pool devoid of top end talent, he could see in upwards of 4 million dollars a year. He could see a team trying to reach the cap floor make a run at his services. The Sabres, Coyotes or maybe even a team with plentiful cap space like the New Jersey Devils, who need forwards, could all try to acquire him this offseason to fill up their roster and hit the cap floor. The couple of teams that would be a good fit for him would be spots like the Predators or Hurricanes. Those two teams have a need at the forward position but also have enough depth that he wouldn’t have to be the prominent player that his salary could command. Do the Ducks have enough room to bring him back? Sheldon Souray is coming off the books and won’t be occupying the LTIR any longer but their young defense will need to be paid within the next two years, a thought that surely has crossed the Ducks front office more than once. His value isn’t going to improve by resigning with the Ducks and will more than likely not be able to give him the term he desires, so unless he gives them a hometown discount I see his chances of ending back in Anaheim at less than ten percent.
If anything Beleskey can use Clarkson’s signing as a guide how NOT to go about free agency. Clarkson allowed his emotions to get in the way of his possible destination. He wanted to return home to Toronto and actually took less money to go to the Leafs. Clarkson will get playing time with the Blue Jackets but who knows how long that relationship will last and if the money he is being given becomes a contentious point around the locker room. Beleskey will want to find a spot where he is able to be a complimentary player on a team that has room to grow, his value will remain high and could see a long, fruitful NHL career. The money may call for him but if his agent has any sense, he will show Beleskey stardom isn’t always what it seems.
