Leafs and Red Wings trending in two different directions post Babcock decision

When Mike Babcock made the decision to leave Detroit and come to Toronto, it dramatically changed the trajectory of both franchises.

The Maple Leafs would go from having a pair bumbling coaches whose decisions were constantly second-guessed, providing ample fodder to the Toronto media, to one of the best coaches in the game who was respected league wide. The Red Wings went from a man who led them to 10 straight playoff appearances to Jeff Blashill, who was never a head coach at the NHL level.

So far, the two clubs are experiencing completely different results under their new head coach.

The Leafs have come out of the gate with a 6-9-4 record in 19 games. While on the surface the record doesn’t seem like an improvement, they’ve played much more structured hockey under Babcock.

From this year to last, the Leafs have improved their possession game, despite a less talented roster with a 49.4 Corsi for percent, which is up from the 46.4 percent rate they posted in 2014-15. The Leafs have generated more high-danger scoring chances (52.9 percent vs 44.5 percent), allowed fewer shots (30.3 vs 32.5) and goals against (2.0 vs 2.7) per 60 minutes at even strength. The club’s goal total is down, but the team has been snake bitten with a low 6.5 shooting percentage.

While Babcock puts too much trust into depth players (Nick Spaling is playing 17 minutes per game!!), his handling of Toronto’s younger franchise players has been fabulous. Morgan Rielly’s growth has continued under Babcock’s reign, and he’s being rewarded with a career high 22 minutes per game. Nazem Kadri has had more TOI per game out of any Leafs forward, and despite scoring only once this season, he’s not getting benched because he’s getting quality scoring chances and giving the Leafs hard minutes. The team is rewarding players who perform regardless of results. Who would have thought James Reimer would overtake Jonathan Bernier as the starting goalie this early in the season? But the Leafs are riding the hot hand and Bernier, who’s 0-7-1 with a .895 save percentage, isn’t handed opportunities just because his contract suggests he should.

The results aren’t there yet for the Leafs, but with Babcock behind the bench, you have to think when the Leafs roster has anything resembling talent on it, that the Leafs mediocrity will soon dry up.

The Red Wings have experienced some bumps this season, with a 9-8-2 record under Blashill.

The Wings have posted lower numbers in almost every single offensive category this season from last. At even strength, scoring is down (2.0 vs 1.7 GF60), so is possession (53.2 percent vs 48.8 percent) and they’ve allowed more shots for (51.1 percent vs 46.3 shots for percent).

Wings

 

With a 100.5 PDO, due largely in part to excellent goaltending, the team hasn’t been unlucky. Peter Mrazek has posted a great 94.58 even strength save percentage while Howard’s 92.78 mark is solid. Detroit has only stayed slightly above .500 with those numbers, and what’s worrisome. If either struggle, the Wings could be toast. 

While possession was expected to drop off following the loss of Babcock, I don’t think things are dire in Detroit. The Red Wings have been blitzed with injuries, as Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Kyle Quincey, Brad Richards, Danny DeKeyser and Mike Green have all missed time with injuries. Datsyuk, one of best possession players in the game, has only appeared in four games. In those four games, the Wings have out-possessed their opponents. The Red Wings scoring has suffered this season and with Datsyuk, the catalyst of the offense, missing time it’s somewhat unfair to judge them.

The Wings are in the midst of a transition and it would be silly to assume they’d continue to produce the same numbers under Blashill. The numbers aren’t promising, but I think there’s room for improvement given health.

It certainly feels like a bizzaro world with the Leafs making strides towards improvement while the Wings are figuring things out post-Babcock, but here we are.

About Liam McGuire

Social +Staff writer for The Comeback & Awful Announcing. Liammcguirejournalism@gmail.com

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