The calendar has flipped to November and that means it’s still entirely too early to make any rash generalizations in the NHL. That being said, there are some historical trends to point out which may leave a few teams who got off to poor starts sweating.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet keeps an eye on the league’s standings when November arrives and he has some pretty interesting data which suggests teams removed from the playoff picture by five points or more rarely make the playoffs.
Starting in 2005-06, only five teams out of 44 have recovered to make the playoffs when at least five points out of the playoffs after games played on that date. Last year’s group went 0-for-4.
This season’s contenders are Anaheim, Colorado, Columbus and Toronto. (Buffalo, Calgary and Edmonton were all within four points of third place in their division.) In the Pacific, Anaheim is your best wager to beat the odds.
It’s fascinating that a margin seemingly as small as five points can prove to be a decent measuring stick for a team’s playoff chances. Just over 11% of teams dating back to 2005-06 made it into the second season after facing a five-point (or greater) gap from playoff contention on November 1st. That’s remarkable.
The Ducks are the safe bet of the four teams to defy the odds, but maybe this means that the first month of the season might offer more to base an opinion off of than originally thought.
