With the NHL season currently underway, many players have gotten off to unexpected starts. The first 15 games of the season usually aren’t representative of a player’s season-long performance, however, as hot starts usually fade. Here are three players who are off to great starts and a quick debate whether their performance is sustainable.
Dale Weise
With the Canadiens off to a strong 12-2-1 start, Weise surprisingly has a team-leading eight goals. He’s found real chemistry on the third-line with Tomas Fleischmann and David Desharnais, who lead all NHL line combinations with 13 goals. He’s earned time on the power play and has the trust of head coach Michel Therrien.
Weise’s hot start has positioned him well for unrestricted free agency, but don’t expect his production to last at least at this rate. Weise is on pace for 44 goals, which is about twice as much as he should top out with. That’s 13 more than he has in his entire career. He’s getting more opportunities, shooting the puck at a career-high rate, but he’s also scoring at a 22.2 shooting percentage and averaging just under 14 minutes a night. He can’t continue to score at those rates. He’s not a great possession player and while he’s a valuable piece to the Montreal Canadiens, he’s not suddenly going to become a 30-goal scorer. Twenty goals? It’s possible, but there’s no way he continues close to this pace for much longer.
Tobias Rieder
Rieder was an afterthought by the Edmonton Oilers organization when they traded his rights to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for enforcer Kale Kessy. It was a baffling trade, and one the Oilers wish they could redo.
He scored 13 goals in his rookie season in 2014-15, but this season he’s taken a step forward with five goals and seven points in his first 12 games. The Coyotes are giving him every chance to succeed, using him on the top line with Martin Hanzal and Anthony Duclair, along with time on special teams.
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The 22-year-old’s start seems sustainable. He’s been given top-six minutes, logging over 17 minutes a game, playing on the power play, and getting time with some of the few talented forwards the Coyotes have. He’s generating three shots per game, but scoring at a healthy 13.9% clip. As long as he continues to be put in spots to succeed, I don’t see why Rieder isn’t being set up for a breakthrough season.
Colton Parayko
Armed with a hard shot, Parayko has come out of nowhere this season to become an offensive weapon for the Blues.
The 22-year-old sports a huge 6’5″ frame, and has already earned second-pairing minutes with the Blues, earning the trust of head coach Ken Hitchcock. In 13 games, the rookie already has four goals and nine points with a healthy +7 rating. He’s potted two game-winning goals for the Blues. He’s not afraid to shoot the puck either, ranking third among defensemen with 27 shots at even strength.
"He's going to be a special player in this league for a long time; shoots like Al MacInnis."- Pierre McGuire on @StLouisBlues Colton Parayko
— NBC Sports PR (@NBCSportsPR) November 5, 2015
Parayko posting great possession numbers with a 65.0 CF% and has given a boost to teammate Carl Gunnarsson. He’s on pace for 25 goals and just under 60 points, which is a bit high for the rookie. It’s not far-fetched to believe he can hit double-digit goals for St. Louis, and somewhere between 30-40 points. Payarko’s got a chance to be the first Calder Trophy winner for the Blues since Barrett Jackman took home the trophy in 2002-03. The Al MacInnis comparisons may be a tad early, but the rookie is already making a big impact early in his NHL career.
