With the young season now a month old, things are starting to take shape in the Big Ten. While Ohio State has done nothing to suggest they aren’t still a heavy favorite to with the conference title, there have definitely been some surprises amongst the teams behind the Buckeyes.
In case you (or a managing editor who shall remain nameless) need a reminder, the Big Ten recently won the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and is the top-rated league in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy.
So without further adieu, here is my first crack at the Big Ten Power Rankings for this season (through the games of December 5th):
1. Ohio State (8-0)
Best Win: Duke
Worst Loss: N/A
The Buckyes already have marquee wins over Duke and Florida, and they boast adjusted efficiency ratings in the Top 5 for both offense and defense. Without Jon Diebler, OSU’s three-point shooting has dropped off from last season, but they rank seventh in two-point shooting and 10th in turnover rate. Defensively, the Buckeyes are among the top teams at forcing turnovers, thanks in large part to the pressure defense of Aaron Craft, and they have consistently controlled the defensive glass. DeShaun Thomas has had the breakout season many predicted, and the team will be bolstered with the addition of LaQuinton Ross later this month. The only potential issue is Jared Sullinger’s back, which caused him to miss the last game. Ohio State heads to Kansas for a showdown on Saturday.
2. Wisconsin (6-2)
Best Win: BYU
Worst Loss: Marquette
Bo Ryan’s team is coming off of a rough week which saw them lose by three at North Carolina and by seven at home to Marquette. Outside of those two games, the Badgers haven’t challenged themselves, which is part of the explanation for their gaudy defensive efficiency numbers. They rank first in the country in opponents’ eFG% and adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, they have been extremely reliant on the three-point shot, and so far it has worked with the team shooting over 42 percent from beyond the arc. Led by Jordan Taylor, they have posted a miniscule turnover rate, but they have rarely found their way to the free throw line. Wisconsin’s defense will keep them in most games, but they need more consistency on the offensive end to close what has become a wide gap between themselves and the Buckeyes.
3. Illinois (8-0)
Best Win: Gonzaga
Worst Loss: N/A
While I don’t expect the Illini to finish this high, they have a decent road win at Maryland and are coming off of a home victory over Gonzaga. Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco has come up big for this team, not only with his impressive 125.9 ORtg and 68.9 TS%, but also with his leadership and toughness. Sophomore big man Meyers Leonard has had a breakout year as well and rules the lane with a 22.9 DReb% and 13.4 block percentage. He’s also hitting over 80 percent from the stripe, so even a modest increase in his free throw rate could pay dividends. The Illini are still a young team outside of their backcourt, but they are off to a solid start.
4. Michigan (6-2)
Best Win: Memphis
Worst Loss: Virginia
There’s no shame in losing to Duke or even Virginia for that matter, but the Wolverines really let the game get away from them as their defensive liabilities were exposed over the last 10 minutes against the Cavaliers. Michigan’s win in Maui over Memphis will pay dividends in March, and they should be heavy favorites in their final four non-conference games. Freshman Trey Burke has been an adequate replacement for Darius Morris, and Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing some of his best basketball over the last five games. The Wolverines are still taking 41.7 percent of their field goal attempts from three-point range, but they somehow rank first in the country in two-point shooting. There are still some question marks for this team defensively, which won’t be answered definitively until conference play begins.
5. Michigan State (6-2)
Best Win: Florida State
Worst Loss: Duke
I was tempted to rank the Spartans higher since their losses have come against Duke and North Carolina, but ongoing concerns about their offense are lingering in my mind. They are shooting just 29.3 percent from beyond the arc and have frequently struggled with turnovers as they try to sort out their point guard situation. Keith Appling has flourished while playing off the ball more in the last few games, and Draymond Green has cut down on his turnovers as well. Defensively, MSU is allowing the lowest OReb% in the nation and rank sixth overall in adjusted efficiency. If Izzo’s squad can continue to improve offensively, they could work their way up to second in the conference before it’s all said and done.
6. Purdue (7-2)
Best Win: Iona
Worst Loss: Xavier
These next two teams were close, but Purdue deserves credit for beating Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico. Still, the second half collapse against Xavier is cause for concern. Offensively, the Boilers rarely turn the ball over, and solid shooting (particularly from three-point land) is their calling card. Sharpshooter Ryne Smith is hitting over 50 percent from downtown, while Robbie Hummel has made over 42 percent of his triples. Since 39 percent of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, I suppose that’s a good thing, but it’s also out of necessity with no real inside presence on the team. On the defense side, Purdue’s numbers have been solid but not spectacular. That has to change for Purdue to consistently win games against conference foes.
7. Indiana (8-0)
Best Win: North Carolina State
Worst Loss: N/A
We’ll have a much better idea of just how good the Hoosiers are after they face Kentucky on Saturday. That said, this year’s team is significantly better defensively than any year of the Tom Crean era (which admittedly isn’t saying much). They are generating a ton of deflections, which they have parlayed into a terrific turnover rate, but they need to do a better job on the defensive glass. The Hoosiers are hitting 44.0 percent of their three-pointers and 55.2 percent on two-pointers, which is good for the fifth-ranked eFG%. They are taking good care of the basketball and have become adept at getting to the stripe as well. Freshman big man Cody Zeller has been the real deal, as evidenced by his 131.1 ORtg, which isn’t even the best mark on the team. That honor belongs to Jordan Hulls who ranks 10th nationally in TS% at 73.5. Sophomores Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey have also played key roles early on and actually have the two highest usage rates on the team.
8. Northwestern (7-1)
Best Win: Seton Hall
Worst Loss: Baylor
The Wildcats played miserably in their biggest test of the season against Baylor on Sunday. Even with freshman Dave Sobolewski running the point, Northwestern has one of the lowest turnover rates in the country. They have also shot the ball well, which is good news for a team that rarely grabs offensive rebounds and struggles to get to the line. John Shurna and Drew Crawford have been terrific, but they need a third consistent scorer to emerge at some point. Outside of not putting their opponents on the free throw line, there are some serious concerns on defense, particularly because the schedule hasn’t exactly been challenging. They have really struggled to prevent offensive rebounds, which partly explains why they have allowed opponents to shoot 52.1 percent from two-point range.
9. Minnesota (8-1)
Best Win: Virginia Tech
Worst Loss: Dayton
The Gophers have won both games since star forward Trevor Mbakwe tore his ACL, but it’s hard to see them keeping it up without their best player once conference play begins. Tubby Smith really needs Rodney Williams to step up in Mbakwe’s absence, which he has done so far. Backcourt play is the biggest question mark with this team, as they struggle with turnovers as well as making and defending three-pointers. Finishing .500 in the conference would surprise me given how much Mbakwe meant to the Gophers.
10. Nebraska (4-3)
Best Win: South Dakota State
Worst Loss: Wake Forest
Losing at home to Wake Forest on what amounted to an uncontested layup is a pretty big indictment of this team. The Huskers rank eighth nationally in free throw shooting, but unfortunately, they rarely get to the line. Outside of decent shooting, there isn’t a lot to love offensively, particularly once they start to face better competition. Nebraska has been solid on the defensive glass, but they have struggled to force turnovers. It’s tough to see this team finishing any higher than this in the league.
11. Penn State (6-3)
Best Win: South Florida
Worst Loss: Saint Joseph’s
Point guard Tim Frazier has been the lone bright spot for the Nittany Lions, ranking first in the nation in assist rate and drawing nearly eight fouls per 40 minutes. That being said, the offensive efficiency numbers are abysmal in virtually every category except for OReb%. Penn State has done a decent job of forcing turnovers, but they are allowing opponents to hit nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc and are putting them at the line with regularity. It’s going to be a long season in Happy Valley.
12. Iowa (5-3)
Best Win: IPFW
Worst Loss: Campbell
The Hawkeyes lost by 16 at home to Campbell and have yet to beat anyone ranked higher than 240th in the Pomeroy Ratings. On the bright side, Matt Gatens has posted a superb 131.3 ORtg, and the team is rarely turning the ball over. The bad news is they don’t get to the line, struggle to make two-point shots, and allow their opponents to get far too many open looks.
Follow me on Twitter (@AndyBottoms) for more of my thoughts on college basketball.
