Another season, another one bid for the Horizon League. That means, as always, that the league’s conference tournament will be the ticket to the NCAA tournament. Most important, however, is that the race is as wide open as ever. Every category of contender is outlined below.
The lazy-man’s choice: No. 1 Valparaiso
Beside the fact that it’s just not acceptable for bloggers to choose the No. 1 seed (we have to write about something), the Crusaders aren’t all that they’re cracked up to be. Let me show you why.
Ken Pomeroy has a metric that, for lack of a better term is called “luck.” This column essentially shows the deviation between a team’s expected record (found using the correlated gaussian formula) and their actual record. In short, it shows us how many games a team won but shouldn’t have. Among the 345 D-I teams, Valparaiso (+0.108) is ninth on this list. What that means is that while Valpo’s actual record is 21-10, it should really be more like 18-13 or 17-14.
While first-year head coach Bryce Drew is doing yeoman’s work (he just was honored as the league’s COTY), and while his team features the league’s most imposing frontcourt duo in Kevin Van Wijk and Ryan Broekhoff (who both were honored as All-Horizon First Teamers yesterday), the Crusaders are eminently beatable under the right conditions. They are far from a sure thing.
How about some anecdotal evidence. In their penultimate game of the regular season, last-place Loyola (7-22, 1-17 Horizon League) took the fully healthy Crusaders (Van Wijk had been having knee troubles) to overtime before Valpo eeked out the 66-62 win.
So what’s their sticking point? Back court defense. Broekhoff just can’t do everything. Valpo is last in league play at creating turnovers with one in 16.7 percent of their chances and eighth in 3-point shot defense (27.1 percent). Further, the backcourt is downright hopeless when it comes to coming up with offensive boards that sail past Broekhoff and Van Wijk. They’re 291st at grabbing offensive boards despite their dominant forwards.
Valpo benefits hugely in the tournament from a double-bye and home-court advantage throughout, but could check out early afterall.
If history is any indication: No. 5 Butler
You just can’t count Brad Stevens out — ever. Last season the Bulldogs were 14-9 on Feb. 3, after they had just lost 4 of their last 5 games. Then they went on to win 14 straight. You may recall their last loss on April 4. And that was after they lost Gordon Hayward to the NBA after their previous season’s Championship-game run.
Fast forward to this season. The Bulldogs no longer have superhero Matt Howard in the frontcourt, but have received an unexpected boost from their freshman. Roosevelt Jones, who has worked his way into the starting lineup, is second in rebounding rate only to freshman Kameron Woods, who grabs more boards per chance than all but two players in the entire Horizon League (11.4% OR%, 23.1% DR%). The Bulldogs were 13-12 on Feb. 4 with some impressive road wins over Stanford and Purdue. Then they won five straight before ruining my entire premise by losing at Valpo.
Butler will have to struggle through four games in seven days to win the tournament, but they can do it mostly on the back of their league-leading defense that has allowed just 0.93 ppp in league play. Their seriously struggling offense has started to come around as of late, scoring better than a point per trip in 4 of their last 6 games. The Bulldogs are just bad at shooting the ball. They should consider stopping, even. Currently Butler is second-worst in the nation at shooting from behind the arc (27.1 percent) and 309th best overall with an ugly 45.0 percent eFG%.
Still, people like Myron Medcalf like Butler. I think people just like picking No. 5 seeds.
Nothing to lose: No. 3 Detroit
The Titans (18-13, 11-7) exude confidence. Google “Doug Anderson dunk,” and see what I have seen.
They just have nothing to lose. They were picked second in the league’s own preseason poll before starting the season 5-8, three seniors form the core of the team and they’ve now won 6 of their last 7. They’re hungry to take back their season from the dredges and it’s showing.
Detroit’s high-powered offense is the second-most efficient in the league (1.06 ppp), despite backing off on their high-tempo play in favor of more patient look-finding. They lead the league in grabbing offensive boards (37.1 percent), getting to the free throw line (45.5 percent) and getting around blocks (6.2 percent), but are hindered by their ineffective shot-defense. They’ve scored better than a point per possession in 14 of their last 16 games, and they won both of those rogue two games.
If I were No. 10 Loyola I would wet my shorts a little walking into Calihan Hall tonight, where the Titans haven’t lost since January 6 — against Valparaiso.
What’s up with: No. 2 Cleveland State
The Vikings (22-9, 12-6) have the first three-quarters of their season to thank for their double-bye in the conference tournament. They started out 20-4 before dropping five straight.
Despite the fact that they’re one of the worst foul-management teams in the nation (I’ve never seen a team without at least one player ranked among the top 500 in EITHER FC/40 or FD/40), Cleveland State has managed to remain the most efficient offense in the Horizon (1.08 ppp) and second among defenses (0.94). Recently, though, their defense has faltered completely, allowing 1.04 ppp in their final seven games.
Working in CSU’s favor is two season-capping wins, and the hugely advantageous double-bye. Another experienced team with nothing to lose.
The college hoops ultra-hipster choice: No. 6 Youngstown St.
The Penguins (15-14, 10-8) are just begging for a storyline. The team — which has never done anything especially notable in the history of the Horizon — has already taken down Valparaiso, Detroit, Cleveland State and Milwaukee (twice!) this season.
Sophomore PG Kendrick Perry (an All-Horizon First Team selection as of yesterday) efficiently feeds an offense that gets 1.05 ppp on average, and Jerry Slocum needs post-season wins in order to keep his job.
The problem with YSU? Their short bench. Most of the talent is in the starting five, and it shows most when teams turn up the pace on the ‘Guins. Among their 15 wins, YSU averaged 64.6 possessions/game, and among their 14 losses they averaged 71 possessions/game.
Your friend that attends either Emerson College in Boston or Columbia College in Chicago or is a barista at a small independent farm-owned organo-coffee shop and rides a single-geared bike to work with cutoffs and suspenders would pick Youngstown State, and maybe be quasi-right.
Meh: No. 4 Milwaukee
The Panthers (19-12, 11-7) have slid from dominance to unsatisfying meh-hood. They were 6-1 in league play before losing 6 of 8, but capped off the regular season with four straight victories.
Tough to see them stringing four wins in a row against quality competition, but Milwaukee has taken Butler down twice already this season, and they’ll likely meet again in the second round.
