Breakout players for 2012: an update

Prior to the season I predicted 15 breakout players for high majors, and another 15 for mid majors. How'd I do?

Here's how I defined who qualified for breakout status:

To predict breakout players, I first have to define what qualifies someone as a 'breakout player' candidate. I've seen several breakout player type stories, and most include players like Duke's Seth Curry. But to me, Curry (and players like him) has already proved himself to be a stud, and just needed other players to move on so that he could get the ball more. That is more of a list of potential All-Conference Players, and that's not what I'm interested in. I want to know which players are going to step up from role player to feature player. So for this list I'm limiting it to players who played less than 50% of their team's minutes, and not due to an injury which caused them to miss a bunch of games. Here goes. 

Richard Howell, Junior, NC State (2010-11 stats: 7.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 11.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG)

I've written a bunch about Richard Howell since last March – so I won't rehash everything - but he's my Breakout Player of the Year. Why Sidney Lowe kept him bottled up is beyond me: his offensive rating (112.8) was 2nd on the team, and he might be the best rebounder in the ACC. He grabbed almost 17% of his own team's missed shots when he was on the floor (tops in the conference), 21.8% of the opponents'. Mark Gottfried won't make Lowe's mistake.

My prediction as Howell for the Breakout Player of the Year won't be coming true. He has bumped his minutes up to 26.9. He's scoring 11.0 ppg and grabbing 9.3 boards. He's also the only player in the top-4 in the ACC in both offensive rebounding % and defensive rebounding %.

Deshaun Thomas, Sophomore, Ohio State (7.5, 3.5 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 14.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG)

Deshaun Thomas's best college game was also his first one. He scored 24 against NC A&T, and then never matched that performance again. It's tough to run an offense with two black holes on the floor (he and Jared Sullinger both used over 27% of OSU's possessions) unless both of those black holes are elite scorers. Thomas's offensive rating was 115.0, he's a solid rebounder, he doesn't turn the ball over, and he converted over 54% of his 2s. If OSU gives him the ball, he'll score.

Last year he and Sullinger each used over 27% of OSU's possessions. Now that Thomas is a starter his number is down to 21.9. Thomas's turnover rate is almost non-existent (6th in the Big Ten) and he makes over 60% of his 2s. 30% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, and he's only made 32.6% of them. As a team Ohio State shoots 33.2% (222nd nationally).

Victor Oladipo, Sophomore, Indiana (7.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 11.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG)

As a freshman, Oladipo survived on pure athleticism. Now he's added 15 pounds of good weight and improved his handle. His offensive rating wasn't great (106.9), but at 6'5 he's already the best offensive rebounder on the team, has the potential to be a future Defensive Player of the Year in the Big 10, and made nearly 60% of his 2s. All the tools are there – he just needs a better understanding of the game, and a better grasp on fundamentals.

Oladipo's numbers haven't really improved. He's just getting more minutes. His turnover rate has dropped slightly, and he's a better FT shooter. These two things have caused his offensive rating to budge from 106.9 to 108.4.

Dante Taylor, Junior, Pitt (5.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 5.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG)

Taylor is more than two years removed from being a McDonald's All-American, and he's found little success in college since then. But he's poised for a big junior season. On a team full of efficient offensive players, Taylor had the 2nd highest offensive rating at 124.9 (only behind Ashton Gibbs). He doesn't do much when he has the ball, but on the occasions he gets aggressive he shoots 61.6% on his 2s. He's also an excellent rebounder, and is one of the best in the Big East on the offensive boards. Pitt lives on extending possessions, and Taylor should extend a lot for them this year.

Swing and a miss. Just as Pitt's season has been a huge disappointment, so has the play of Dante Taylor.

CJ Fair, Sophomore, Syracuse (6.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 9.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG)

Fair's weakness has been that he's just not a very good shooter. But in terms of understanding the game, I'll take Fair over any sophomore in the country. He does everything well. He gets 10% of the offensive rebounds, doesn't turn the ball over, blocks almost 5% of his opponents' shots, steals the ball on 2.6% of the possessions, and manages to play solid defense while only committing 2.6 fouls per 40 minutes. A lot of National Title teams have guys like this playing off the ball.

CJ Fair continues to do everything well for the Orangemen. His turnover rate is 4th in the Big East, his free throw rate is the best on the team, he makes half his 2s and 74% of his free throws. His one weakness is that he still is not a very good shooter. His offensive rating (116.0) is 2nd amongst Syracuse starters.

Davante Gardner, Sophomore, Marquette (4.6 PPG, 2.2 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 9.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)

Gardner arrived at Marquette weighing more than 300 pounds, which is why he wasn't a more highly regarded recruit. But an off-season program trimmed him down, and now he's ready to blossom into the Big East's version of Reggie Johnson. During the rare minutes that he was on the court, he drew more fouls than any Marquette player (and shot over 75% from the line) and was the best offensive rebounder – and 2nd place wasn't even close. Miami's Reggie Johnson makes a living grabbing his teammates misses, and then scoring or getting fouled – which is what Gardner did last year, except he only played 9 minutes a game.

Gardner was having a solid season before he injured his knee at the end of January. It didn't appear to be serious, but he hasn't played since. The Marquette staff is being tight lipped about the injury, but it's never good when someone who's pushing 300 pounds injures his legs.

James Bell, Sophomore, Villanova (2.4 PPG, 1.3 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 7.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG)

Bell had preseason surgery last year to repair stress fractures in both tibias, which is a large part to why he didn't play a larger roll. He only played more than 20 minutes twice all year, and in one of those game he dropped 21 on Seton Hall (one of two double-digit scoring games for him). Like a lot of guys on this list he converted 2s at a high level (59%) and was a solid FT shooter (78.6%).

Bell uses the fewest possessions of any of the starters, but that's no surprise. He's continued to be a steady role player who's job it is to knock down the occasional three pointer. He recently had a 14 point, 13 rebound game against Lousiville, but like most Nova games that one ended in a loss.

Shaun Noriega, Junior, USF (6.4 PPG, 0.9 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 3.8 PPG, 0.5 RPG)

In pickup games someone shoots a 3-pointer to determine which team starts with the ball. If Noriega is the one shooting, you may as well just forgo the process and give his team the ball. Unfortunately, when the clock is actually running, he was less effective. He did manage 37.6% on his 3s (which is good), and 84% of his shot attempts were from beyond the arc. His direction for the summer was to learn how to put the ball on the floor, a skill he supposedly picked up. Now we'll have to wait and see if he can duplicate these skills in in live-game situations.

The answer to the question I asked in the original article is "no." He was removed from the starting lineup after their January 10th game with Notre Dame and hasn't played more than six minutes since. Despite assurances that his game would expand, he still takes more than 80% of his shots from beyond the arc.

Thomas Robinson, Junior, Kansas (7.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 17.5 PPG, 11.7 RPG)

Robinson has been the classic bench guy at Kansas – go into the game, play like hell, let the starters rest. This year he’ll need to do more. His offensive rating is solid (108.7) for a guy who barely makes half his free throws. But where he really excels is on the boards. Had he played more minutes, his 31.1% defensive rebound percentage would have been 2nd in the country, while his 18.8% offensive rebound percentage would have been 3rd. If he plays 25 minutes a game he’s pretty much guaranteed to average a double-double.

Now to the actual Breakout Player of the Year (and potential Naismith Award winner). I wrote in November that he'd average a double-double as long as he played 25 minutes a game. Well, he's playing 31. He's somehow become even a better defensive rebounder (32%) and this time leads the nation. And his free throw % has gone from 51% to 68%.

Kourtney Roberson, Sophomore, Texas A&M (5.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 4.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG)

Roberson isn't going to blow away the Big 12 with his offensive skills, but A&M doesn't need that from him. His job is to bang and be physical. He made 58.2% of his 2s, struggled from the line (56.6%) and never attempted a three. He did post team-best rebounding rates on both ends of the floor.

Roberson broke his ankle in December, contributing to what has been a very disappointing first season for head coach Billy Kennedy.

Kevin Parrom, Junior, Arizona (7.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 4.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG)

Parrom started last year with a stress fracture, and finished with a injured foot. This season he began by getting shot. If that doesn't say 'breakout player' then I don't know what does. On a team which lost Derrick Williams there are suddenly an awful lot of possessions to go around. Williams was on the court for 75% of Arizona’s possessions, and used nearly 30% of them himself. Parrom is a sharpshooter who can also convert 2s. His 122.5 offensive rating was among the 50 best in the country. His problem is that he’s the anti-Derrick Williams: he doesn’t shoot enough.

In the last year and a half Parrom has lost his mother to cancer, lost his grandmother, broken two bones and been shot twice. Right now he's out with a broken foot. Man, life can be cruel.

CJ Wilcox, Sophomore, Washington (8.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 13.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG)

With Isaiah Thomas in control last year, Wilcox's job was to spot up beyond the arc and knock it down when his turn came. 73% of his shots came from beyond the arc, and he converted 40% of them. Now he’ll be called on to put the ball on the floor, and if he can bump up his % on 2s (46.6% last year) then he’ll truly be difficult to contain.

The Huskies have now won 11 of 13, and a large part of that is the play of CJ Wilcox. He now takes 'only' half his shots from beyond the arc, and he makes 41% of them. He has the highest offensive rating and the lowest turnover rate on the team, while still managing to use 20.3% of Washington's possessions.

Richard Solomon, Sophomore, Cal (5.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 5.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG)

Markhuri Sanders-Frison was the man inside for Cal in 2010-11, and now it's Richard Solomon's turn. Solomon shot nearly 58% on 2s, and does a great job getting to the line. Unfortunately for Cal fans, he only made 52% of his freebies. He’s an excellent rebounder, especially clearing the defensive glass, where his 22.3 DR% would have placed him in the nation’s top-100 had he played more minutes.

The bottom end of this list is beginning to look as if there's a curse associated with being chosen. Solomon was ruled academically ineligible after the first semester and his day's at Cal may be done.

Patric Young, Sophomore, Florida (3.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 10.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

At one point Young was uncoachable. But Billy Donovan took him anyway, and now he's about the reap the fruit of that decision. Turn on a Gator game this year and you'll hear announcers fawning over his physique, though by year's end they might be fawning over his game. Young’s freshman game was hampered primarily by his inability to get to the line. He only drew 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes, which is less than half of what it needs to be. He also needs to become a better rebounder. But he certainly has the tools.

Young is making 62% of his 2s and is a solid rebounder on both ends. He's also been known to send announcer Jimmy Dykes into a homo-erotic tizzy.

Damontre Harris, Sophomore, South Carolina (3.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG) (2011-12 stats: 7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG)

Harris started 19 games as a freshman, but still didn't accumulate many minutes. He just never quite knew how to position himself on the interior, and when he did get the ball he didn't know what to do with it. He also got pushed around, weighing in barely north of 200 pounds at 6’9. Now that he’s stronger he should be able to improve his rates across the board. Even undersized, he had a 110.4 offensive rating, primarily due to 58.8% shooting on the inside. His defensive rebounding was pedestrian (12.9%), but a 10% offensive rebounding rate shows that he should able to increase his work after opponents misses.

Harris is roughly the same player who's now just getting more minutes. Encouraging is that his block rate has doubled and he's making 82% of his free throws. If his body will let him put on weight, he's a player to watch.