The always-interesting Colonial Athletic Association is about as interesting a conference race as there is this year. Since VCU went on their First-Four to Final-Four run last year, the conference lost 9 of it’s top-10 scorers, it’s al-time winningest coach (Jim Larranaga), and Blaine Taylor’s mustache. But this is a new season, and these are new teams. This won’t be another year when the CAA gets three teams into the NCAA Tourney and so the conference race is as important as ever. How important? In the past 10 seasons the #1 seed has won the conference tournament 8 times.
Atop the conference standing are four teams with a chance:
Drexel (19-5, 11-2). The Dragons were picked to finish 5th by the Blue Ribbon Yearbook, and 3rd by Basketball Prospectus (the only two season preview guides worth purchasing). From last year’s team they returned their one-two punch of Samme Givens and Chris Fouch, each of whom used over 24% of their team’s possessions. This year’s team spreads the ball more and there are four guys using more than 21%. The oft injured Fouch takes 31% of the shots when he’s on the floor, but has missed several games and is playing shorter minutes. Now a junior, his 3-pt% has declined every season due to injuries. That has cleared the way for PG Frantz Massenat to become the go-to Dragon. He leads the team in scoring (13.0 ppg), assists, steals and is making a remarkable 47.1% of his 3s. The other double-figure scorers are freshman Damion Lee (12.1) and the senior Givens (12.0). Drexel, who had the 11th ranked offense in conference play last year, have surprising lept into 1st, averaging a strength-adjusted 1.06 points per possession. And they’ve won eleven straight.
But this is still a Bruiser Flint team, which means they play defense. The Dragons are 35th nationally in defensive efficiency, but only 3rd in the conference after leading the CAA last season. They have the best 3-pt defense in the nation (25.9%) and are the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the nation, allowing opponents to only grab 24% of their own misses. The one thing they don’t do is force turnovers (266th). Still, not allowing teams to extend possessions with offensive rebounds, and not allowing scoring outbursts from beyond the arc is a good recipe for winning. The Dragons only have one remaining game against a team tied atop the standings, a season ending trip to Old Dominion.
Prediction: 15-3
George Mason (19-6, 11-2). The Patriots were the pre-season pick for the CAA. They brought in a new coach (Paul Hewitt) but also returned three seniors who had been mainstays in a lineup that had both the most efficient offense and most efficient defense in the conference last season. Unfortunately, one of those seniors – Andre Cornelius – missed the first 10 games after pleading guilty to credit card fraud (he used a card he found on campus to purchase gas). Last year George Mason had the 27th best offense in the nation and advanced past Villanova in the NCAA Tournament. This year they have the 164th ranked offense and are going to need every bit of it just to get to the Tourney. The offense is the Ryan Pearson show. When he’s on the floor the senior takes over 30% of the team’s shots. He’s converting 54% of his 2s, 35% of his 3s and 71% of his FTs. He’s also an elite rebounder, and is the 2nd best player in the conference at getting to the line.
George Mason’s defense has slipped as well, from 48th to 64th. They’re one of the best at pressuring the interior, and only allow teams to make 42.2% of their 2s (11th nationally). Their main weakness is that they give up too many offensive boards (213th).
They still have both their games remaining with Virginia Commonwealth, and have to go on the road to Northeastern.
Prediction: 14-4
Virginia Commonwealth (20-5, 11-2). Last year’s mid-major darling is at nearly the identical spot they were this time last season (19-6, 11-2). Of course last year’s team fell apart down the stretch, dropping four of five. But that team had better out of conference wins and they sneaked into the Tourney. This year’s signature ooc win is Akron. But last year’s team had four seniors who are now gone, which makes what Shaka Smart has done pretty impressive.
Smart uses an 8-man rotation who all average more than 15 minutes. The Rams have three players averaging double-figures, and five averaging at least 8.6 points. What’s missing is the 3-point shot. The Final Four team made 37% of their attempts, while this team makes 33.4%. That’s the difference between 55th in the nation and 212th. The wildcard is Treveon Graham. The freshman has made 7 of his last 18 3-pt attempts (39%). He doesn’t play many minutes (16+) but he has the 2nd best offensive rebounding rate on the team and he takes care of the ball. He also draws more fouls than any other CAA player. A little better shot selection and this kid is going to be a star.
The defense is a better version of last season’s defense. They’ve gone from 86th to 37th and have improved nearly every metric. They’re the 4th best team in the nation at forcing turnovers (and freshman Briante Weber has the best steal % in the country). The one area where they’ve slipped is putting opponents on the line. Last year: 93rd, this year: 208th.
VCU has a tough remaining schedule, with two against George Mason and a road game at Old Dominion.
Prediction: 14-4
Old Dominion (15-10, 10-3). Last year ODU was a possession away from thwarting Butler’s Final Four run before it ever began. This year, they’re struggling. They lost 7 games out of conference and have their worst record since 2007-08. Still, they’re only a game back in the conference race with five to play.
With the loss of four seniors who played significant minutes, the offense has crashed. Last year they extended 45.3% of their own possessions with offensive boards (1st nationally) and this year that number has slipped to 38.9% (16th). But the problems run much deeper than that. They’re 286th at making 2s, 287th at making 3s, 328th at FTs and 251st turning the ball over. They’ve played 5 top-100 teams (via Ken Pomeroy) and have only scored more than a point per possession once. The schedule wraps up with four of five top-100 teams.
Defensively, this one rivals the 2009-10 squad as Blaine Taylor’s best. They’ve only given up more than a point per possession once in conference play. In the CAA they’re in the top-5 in every meaningful defensive metric. If they hope to somehow pull out a #1 seed in the conference Tourney, they’re resting their hopes on defense. They still have games against VCU and Drexel, and have a road trip to Georgia State.
Prediction: 13-5
