Another Parity Party in the Horizon League

Brad Stevens

For the first time in 31 seasons, three teams finished the Horizon League regular season tied for first place last February. Milwaukee, Butler and Cleveland State all finished 13-5 (Milwaukee got the nod, however, for sweeping Butler during the season), and Valparaiso, at 12-6, was just a step behind.

Two of those four teams were each taken down by a team that finished among the league’s bottom three during the regular season (2-16 Youngstown State took down Butler and 7-11 Loyola Chicago beat Milwaukee). That’s a lot of parity.

This season it’s more of the same, and perhaps, to an even greater extent. The league’s 18 games played so far have been decided by an average of 5.8 points, and seven games of those have been decided by three points or less. Nine of the ten teams have at least one win, and no team is undefeated. Six teams are either 3-1 or 2-1.

So, who’s in it to win it? This isn’t the 2009-2010 season; there are at least four contenders for the Horizon League title. Here’s a look at them.

The (former) tempo-free favorite: Cleveland State (12-3, 2-1 Horizon League)

Upside: When Ken Pomeroy simulated the Horizon League’s regular season 10,000 times on Dec. 29, Cleveland State won the title in 49.8 percent of the sims, ahead of Milwaukee’s 36.1 percent. Afterall, the Vikings have taken down a few quality mid and high majors in the non-con season: Vanderbilt, Kent State, Akron and Robert Morris.

They’ve done it with backcourt defense, which hasn’t missed much of a beat since losing Norris Cole to the NBA. Half of the top eight ball-stealers in the Horizon League play for the Vikings, and D’Aundray Brown (with a steal in 5.43 percent of his opponents’ possessions) leads the league, and is eighth nationally. The Vikings’ backcourt creates a nation-best turnover in 29.1 percent of their opponents’ possessions.

Downside: Of course, CSU lost to 7-6 Youngstown State at home two days after Pomeroy’s simulations, 73-67. The Vikings’ defense seriously faltered when pressed hard in the paint, and allowed 1.16 points per possession. CSU now ranks third in the Horizon in defensive efficiency (0.94 ppp), and was never very strong offensively, especially when they can’t post-up. The Vikings are the fourth-most efficient offensively (1.01 ppp).

The Vikings aren’t playing smart basketball right now. They have league-worst free throw rates on both sides of the floor. That amounted to a lop-sided 23-12 free throw attempt margin in the recent YSU loss.

Just to add insult to injury (yep, there’s a pun coming), one half of that brash backcourt, Horizon first-teamer and starter Trevon Harmon, suffered a concussion in the YSU loss, and his return is questionable for the time being.

Defensive powerhouse: Milwaukee (10-5, 3-1)

Upside: The Panthers are finally healthy and playing with a full roster, and they’re playing the best defense in the league (0.91 ppp). Milwaukee held Butler to 0.87 ppp in their recent loss.

Senior point guard Kaylon Williams is leaving his mark on the league, and his 40.7 percent assist rate is ranked in the top 10 in the country. No other team in the nation defends the three better.

Evansville-transfer James Haarma has been solid on the boards, and gives Milwaukee dangerous balance.

Downside: It’s a common theme in the Horizon League this season: lack of offense. The Panthers are scoring 0.99 ppp, and are incredibly mediocre in every offensive category.

Three of the players with the top four offensive ratings (Ryan Allen, James Haarsma, and Kyle Kelm) all receive fewer than 18 percent of Milwaukee’s possessions under Rob Jeter’s guard-heavy style.

The late bloomer: Butler (8-7, 2-1)

Upside: This section is probably going to continue to grow based on Brad Stevens’ traditional slow starts and the current momentum powering the Bulldogs. They’ve now won four of their last five including wins on the road to Purdue and Stanford in addition to their final-minutes win over Milwaukee and a win over Green Bay. Butler is scoring at a rate of 1.07 points per possession (significantly above their adjusted season average of 0.99), and allowing 0.94 ppp for an efficiency margin over those four games of +0.13.

Clutch freshmen Kameron Woods and Roosevelt Jones are stealing the show as they continue to do the right things at the right time. Both lead their teammates in offensive rebounding rate, and 6-9 Woods has the 78th best defensive rebounding rate in the nation (23.1 percent).

Senior PG Ron Nored seems to be finally settling into a season without Matt Howard ripping heads off in the paint. His assist rate (32.6 percent) is third best in the league.

Brad Stevens’ rotations are finally taking shape, and it’s all coming together again in Indianapolis.

Downside: Perhaps Butler will be the Horizon League team that solves its offensive inequities. As it is the Bulldogs have the 199th most efficient offense in the nation, and have the worst shooting in the Horizon, with a 43.0 percent eFG%.

Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Dunham will be consistently dangerous from range for the Bulldogs next season, but in the meantime Butler is the 328th-worst three-point shooting team in hoops. Fortunately big man Andrew Smith is creating plenty of second-chances with an offensive board in 10.9 percent of his opportunities.

On the bubble: Valparaiso (9-6, 2-1)

Upside: The Crusaders feature one the most overlooked and versatile frontcourt duos in the Horizon League in Ryan Broekhoff (O-Rating 127.5) and Kevin Van Wijk (105.8) powering the league’s most ambitious offense (1.06 ppp). They’re the only conference team that has thus far taken down Butler.

Downside: Terrible defense. Valpo is allowing 1.06 ppp, and gave up 1.28 ppp to Green Bay in their recent 68-possession 90-87 win. It’s hard to sustain a successful season when you’re giving up that many points. The Crusaders are relying on a young backcourt, and it shows.

Valpo’s sole Horizon League loss was to Milwaukee at home.

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