On to Nashville for the early games. These won’t be played at Vanderbilt, but instead will be at the Bridgestone Arena. What have I learned about Bridgestone in the last minute and a half? Well, they’re a Japanese company and the name comes from the word ishibashi, which roughly translates as “stone bridge.” So there’s that.
Alright, on to basketball.
Cincinnati (6) vs Texas (11)
How they got here: The Bearcats (24-10) began the year by laying a complete egg in the out-of-conference portion of their schedule. The only two teams in Pomeroy’s top-100 that they played both beat them, and then Cincy threw in a loss to Presbyterian just for fun. They started Big East play 5-4 and the season outlook wasn’t particularly bright. But Mick Cronin’s squad turned it around, and they won five of the last six in the regular season, and then played their way into the Big East final where they lost to Louisville.
Texas (20-13) has been the team all season that should win more games, but they don’t. Out-of-conference they went 2-3 against top-100 teams in the Pomeroys. They started 3-6 in conference, rallied to finish 9-9, and then got rolled by Mizzou in Big 12 semis.
The travel: Cincinnati to Nashville is a short 276 mile trip. From Austin it is 859 miles.
Pomeroy: 52% in favor of Texas.
Where Cincinnati has the advantage:
1. 3-point defense. Texas is not a good 3-point shooting team (239th nationally). The Bearcats defend it well (54th).
2. 2-point defense. Alright, lets face it. Texas just isn’t a very good shooting team (and neither is Cincinnati). Texas is 141st at making 2s, and Cincy is 78th at stopping 2s.
3. Crashing the boards. Cincinnati doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well (228th in 2s, 166th in 3s), but they’re great at grabbing their own misses. On the season they rebound 36% of their own misses, which is 39th nationally. Texas is 248th in defensive rebounding.
4. Experience. Texas has one of the youngest rosters in the nation, with three freshman starters. Pomeroy has them ranked 326th in experience. The Bearcats are right about the NCAA average (166th).
5. Turnovers. The Bearcats don’t turn the ball over (10th nationally). The Longhorns aren’t that good at forcing turnovers (170th).
Florida State (3) vs St Bonaventure (14)
How they got here: FSU (24-9) stumbled it’s way through the out-of-conference portion of their schedule, going 1-5 against teams ranked in Pomeroy’s top-100. They switched to a 3-guard lineup shortly before conference play, but that didn’t seem to help. Then after getting blown out at Clemson, they figured out what the hell they were doing and went 12-3 the rest of the way, including a 33-point dismantling of North Carolina. In the conference tourney they beat Miami, Duke and North Carolina to win their first ever ACC Title.
St. Bonaventure (20-11) had a similar out-of-conference experience as Florida State, except they tossed in a loss to a horrible Arkansas State team. Over halfway through the Atlantic-10 season things weren’t looking much better, as they were 6-5 in conference. But then – again, like FSU – they figured things out and finished the season 7-1 and won the A-10 tourney.
The travel. Tallahassee to Nashville is 490 miles. From Allegany, NY, it’s 706 miles.
Pomeroy. 67% in favor of Florida State.
Where St. Bonaventure has the advantage:
1. Extending possessions. The Bonnies will likely have a hard time shooting against the Seminole defense. But because FSU fronts everything in the post and is very aggressive with weakside help, they’re not a good defensive rebounding team (206th). And St. Bonaventure is one of the best at getting offensive boards (24th).
2. The line. St. Bonaventure gets to the line a lot (35th) and once there they make them (18th). FSU fouls a decent amount (131st).
3. Turnovers. The Bonnies aren’t that good at forcing turnovers (227th), but the Noles don’t discriminate (324th).
4. Shortness. FSU has been absolutely terrorized by tiny guards this year. And the Bonnies have one who comes off the bench in 5’10 Eric Mosley.
5. The feel-good story. Everyone who is not an FSU fan will be rooting for the Bonnies. This is a tiny school that hasn’t been in the Tournament in 11 years, and is just now finishing rebuilding after an academic scandal.
