The first four? Round 1? Count me out on this field of 68 nonsense. But hey, I don’t make the rules. There are games. They count. Let’s roll.
BYU (14) vs Iona (14)
Brigham Young (25-8): Dave Rose’s first season in the West Coast Conference didn’t go as well as hoped, but it probably went about as well as forecast. After five straight years of finishing first or second in the regular season in the Mountain West, the Cougars changed conferences and were kicked to third. Then BYU got knocked out of the Conference Tourney by runner up Gonzaga. So it goes.
Aside from a season opening loss to Utah State, BYU coasted through the season winning the games they should win, and losing the games they shouldn’t. Following that loss, they only beat one team (Gonzaga) in Ken Pomeroy’s top-50 and only lost to one team that wasn’t (Loyola Marymount). Their offense was the worst it’s been under head coach Dave Rose (101st nationally) and this was due primarily to poor offensive rebounding (233rd nationally) and a pedestrian rate at drawing fouls (165th). Otherwise, they shot the ball well, and finished 25th in 2-pt%. 6’8 senior Noah Hartsock led the way, converting 59% of his 2s on his way to a team best 16.6 ppg.
Iona (25-7): Iona did a lot of things right this season. They knocked off Denver, St Josephs and Nevada in their out-of-conference schedule, and finished the regular season 9-1 to win the MAAC regular season by two games. That was the good news. The bad news was giving up 85 points in 70 possessions to a bad offensive team while getting knocked out of their Conference Tourney. Not many projected them in this Tourney, but here they are.
The talk all season with Iona has been PG Scott Machado. He has the 4th best assist rate (44.2) in the nation, played almost 88% of Iona’s minutes, and shoots the ball well. He led the team in minutes and steals, and led the country in assists.
BYU will win if the duo of 6’8 Noah Hartsock and 6’9 Brandon Davies (15.0 ppg) can dominate the interior. Iona is a small team (only two starters over 6’4, both at 6’7) and are 254th in the nation at defending the two. BYU is 25th at making 2s, and Davies and Hartsock both do all their work on the inside.
Iona will win if their transition game enables them to dominate on the inside. Iona likes to get out and run (22nd fastest tempo nationally) and they make a remarkable 55.7% of their 2s, largely off transition buckets. BYU likes to run as well (5th nationally), so the tempo won’t come as a surprise, but consistently containing Scott Machado is no easy task.
Mississippi Valley State (16) vs Western Kentucky (16)
Mississippi Valley State (21-12): Ahhhh, the SWAC. Always a 16 seed. The Delta Devils dominated the conference (17-1) and won the conference Tournament, and what do they get to show for it? They still get a play-in game. Well, at least this way they have a chance at a victory.
Mississippi Valley State is led by 4th year head coach Sean Woods who has improved them from 7-25 his first year, to 21-12 this year. And each season they’ve gotten better. This year they even beat Tennessee State out of conference, and they went 11-5 in the Ohio Valley.
Western Kentucky (15-18): The Hilltoppers didn’t have much to hang their hats on. They finished 3rd in their division and 7th overall in the Sun Belt. They entered the conference Tourney at 11-18 and rattled off four straight wins, none by more than 5 points. Of course they did.
While I watched the final (yes, I watched the Sun Belt Final), I was struck by the names of the Hilltoppers: Jamal Crook, Teeng Akol, O’Karo Akamune, and my favorite: Vinny Zollo.
Mississippi Valley State will win if they force enough turnovers. The Delta Devils turn their opponents over on 23.2% of their possessions, which is 35th nationally. The Hilltoppers are 271st at taking care of the ball.
Western Kentucky will win if they take advantage of MVSU’s aggressive defense and get enough trips to the line. The Hilltoppers are 73rd in the nation at getting to the line, and MVSU is 277th at keeping opponents off it.
