On to the Columbus pod. This will be hosted at the Nationwide Arena, which, according to Wikipedia, hosted a New Kids on the Block concert in 2009. Which is odd, as I didn’t know they survived the 80s.
Michigan State (1) vs Long Island University (16)
How they got here: Michigan State (27-7) began their season on a boat, and ended it cutting down the nets in the Big 10 tournament. In that time they had three two-game losing streaks and a fifteen game winning streak. They played 23 teams ranked in Pomeroy’s top-100 and went 16-7.
LIU (25-8) finished first in the Northeast Conference, and then won the conference tourney. They played two Pomeroy top-100 teams during the season and lost both.
The travel: It’s 255 miles from East Lansing to Columbus. For the Blackbirds it’s 583 miles.
Pomeroy: 96% in favor of Michigan State.
Where LIU has the advantage:
1. They don’t, but we’ll move forward as if they can win.
2. They still don’t.
3. The line. LIU is the 2nd best team in the nation at getting to the line. Perhaps they’ll shoot 70 FTs.
4. The line, part two. LIU is also the 2nd best team in the nation at keeping teams off the line.
5. 2s. LIU forces teams to score a higher percentage of their points on 2s than any other team in the nation. How is that an advantage? Not sure, but it’s cool anyway.
Memphis (8) vs St Louis (9)
How they got here: Memphis (26-8) played a lot of really good teams in out of conference play, but lost most of them. Then they rolled Conference USA in the regular season and in the conference tourney.
St Louis (25-7) went the entire season only once losing by double digits. They beat a bunch of good teams. They lost to a bunch of good teams. And they lost to Rhode Island (who still fired their coach).
The travel: The higher seeded Memphis fans have to travel 591 miles. St. Louis fans get 417. But everyone is flying anyway so who cares?
Pomeroy: 59% in favor of Memphis.
Where St Louis has the advantage:
1. Ball control. Rick Majerus’s team rarely turns the ball over. They’re 43rd nationally. Memphis isn’t particularly good at forcing them (159th).
2. Hidden possessions. Memphis has a good shooting team, making 54% of their 2s and almost 37% of their 3s. But when they do miss, don’t expect them to extend a lot of possessions with offensive boards. Memphis is 232nd at grabbing offensive rebounds, and the Billikens are 48th at preventing them.
3. Statistical oddities. Mempis scores 57% of their points on 2s, which is 54th nationally. St. Louis opponents score 55.6% of their points on 2s, which is 54th nationally. Why do I have this listed as an advantage for St. Louis? You tell me.
4. Preventing assists. Memphis has decent ball movement, and generates an assist at a slightly higher rate than the national average (133rd). Meanwhile, St. Louis is really really good at preventing those types of baskets (14th).
5. Coaching. Rick Majerus has won NCAA tournament games. Josh Pastner hasn’t.
