I already covered why NC State won’t win the ACC. Folllowing that article one of the most common questions I got was, “well, if not the Wolfpack, then who will it be?” In answer to that, here’s my way-too-early top-5.
The reason it is “way-too-early” is because the rosters aren’t settled, and neither are the schedules. In a conference like the ACC which is unbalanced, scheduling plays a huge role. Just like at NC State who played the softest schedule in the conference, and still finished behind Florida State (SOS No. 2) and tied with Virginia (SOS No. 3). Yes, NC State made a run to the Sweet 16, but anyone who predicts future success based on two games in March is someone who shouldn’t be listened to.
Regardless, here goes. My top-5 for the ACC regular season.
1. Duke: The Blue Devils return seven of their top nine players. Miles Plumlee played half the team’s minutes, but is replaceable. The big loss is obviously Austin Rivers. Rivers was the lone player who could create off the dribble, but he also had the lowest offensive rating of any player on the roster not named Josh Hairston. Quinn Cook, now with a year in the system, is capable of stepping in and pushing this team, and people shouldn’t expect Duke’s offense to suffer. They were ranked No. 11 last season, and will be fine this season.
The wildcard is Andre Dawkins. Will he play? If he does, Duke will start four seniors, and three of them made at least 38% of their threes. And Mason Plumlee is back in the middle, giving them a legit inside presence.
Duke’s problem last season was defense, or the lack thereof. They ranked 70th. It was the only non top-20 defense in over a decade for coach Kryzyzewski. And while I don’t expect a return to an elite level (too many issues on the perimeter) I do expect that they’ll be better. Why? Coach K. He’s too good a coach to have that porous of a defense two years running.
2. Miami: The Hurricanes are another team which doesn’t lose a lot. They return nine of their top eleven. More importantly, the biggest of those returnees (Reggie Johnson) will be a year removed from surgery. Once Johnson was inserted into last season’s lineup, Kenny Kadji immediately became a much different player. With Johnson in the lineup Kadji slides out to provide high screens, which is where he’s dangerous. He can pick and pop, and he can slide into space and knock down mid-range shots. At 6-11 he’s a matchup problem, and the perfect compliment to the relatively immobile Johnson.
Though the most important player will be point guard Shane Larkin (oh my gosh! he’s barry’s son! hadn’t heard that). He’s making the all-important jump from freshman to sophomore, which is where players typically make their strongest progression. He runs Miami, and his quickness is elite.
3. North Carolina: Much has been made of losing Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Kendall Marshall. And much of what has been opined has been fair – that’s a ton of talent.
But this is still UNC.
The team next season with the most consensus top-25 recruits on their roster? North Carolina. With Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, James Michael McAdoo and Dexter Strickland in the starting five, UNC still runs out a lineup with four consensus top-25 recruits. Roy Williams still has the most talent in the conference.
The question will be how quickly it gels. But talent certainly isn’t an issue.
4. NC State: see link above
5. Florida State: Florida State loses a lot – on paper. Yes, six seniors are gone. And four of them were starters. Typically, that spells a rebuilding year in the following season. But in this case, typical logic may not apply.
FSU had turnover problems (which is nothing new). Where did the departed seniors rank in terms of turnover rate?: No. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Michael Snaer is the lone returning full-time starter (and according to Leonard Hamilton, he’s the best defensive player he’s ever coached). Terrence Shannon – who had the highest offensive rating on the team at the time of his shoulder injury – returns. Kiel Turpin has spent over a year on campus getting stronger, and will slide into the role left open by Xavier Gibson. Ian Miller will play his first full season as a Seminole. And Leonard Hamilton is adding a very talented and mature recruiting class – one is a JUCO, two are post-grad prep students, and one is coming from a full-time hoops Academy.
FSU might be the hardest team in the ACC to peg, and I would expect a lot of variation in where the pundits predict them to finish.
