Jordan Morgan

1.25: The outer limit of an offense

The Michigan offense has steadily improved since Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jordan Morgan stepped on campus. Prior to their arrival, the Wolverines offense was ranked No. 94 nationally in offensive efficiency. Their freshmen year (playing alongside Zack Novak and Darius Morris) both players posted offensive efficiencies of 109 and John Beilein's offense improved to No. 31. Last year Trey Burke was added to the equation and the offense finished the seasons ranked No. 22. Now, with Glenn Robinson Jr. and Nik Stauskus on board, they have the best offense in the nation.

But how good are they?

There's been a clear trend in college basketball over the past decade The average No. 1 offense each season has scored a strength adjusted 1.24 points per possession. This year? Michigan is at 1.25.

This just seems to be about the limit of an exceptional college offense – every time they get the ball, they average 1 and 1/4 points. That's the standard for the elite of the elite.

To put them into perspective, I listed the top-10 offenses of the past decade (not just each year's No. 1). Here's what that chart looks like:

Seven offenses have finished somewhere north of 1.25, but only one has passed 1.26. That was 2005 North Carolina with five NBA picks in the rotation (including the No. 2, No. 5, No. 13 and No. 14 picks of the lottery).

So can the Michigan offense improve? Sure, but anything more than a point per 100 possessions is probably a stretch.

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