Handicapping the Big East title chase

Georgetown (12-3)

Remaining schedule: Rutgers, at Villanova, Syracuse

The Hoyas have a one game lead over Louisville and Marquette, and hold the tie breaker over the Cardinals. The tie breaker with Marquette is complicated, and ultimately will fall on how the other teams are seeded – but with Georgetown being 1-0 vs Louisville and Marquette being 0-1, it's highly likely that the Hoyas will hold the tie breaker over Marquette as well.

Their remaining schedule, though, is a tough one. Rutgers is almost a lock (92% odds according to Ken Pomeroy), while at Villanova (57%) and Syracuse (54%) are slightly better than coin flips. A sweep obviously gives Georgetown their first conference title since 2008, but if those odds are accurate then there is a 28% chance of that happening. But Georgetown really only needs to win two and this one will pretty much be locked up.

Louisville (11-4)

Remaining schedule: at Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Out of 15 conference teams the Cardinals' conference-only strength of schedule is 15th. Hail the unbalanced schedule! It is about to get tougher, starting with today's trip to the Carrier Dome, where Pomeroy pegs their odds at 51%. Then it's home against Cincinnati (89%) and Notre Dame (90%). The chances of a sweep are significantly better than Georgetown's (41%), but the Cardinals need the Hoyas to go 1-2 while Louisville goes 3-0. A loss today and they are out, practically, if not mathematically.

Marquette (11-4)

Remaining schedule: Notre Dame, at Rutgers, at St. John's

Marquette is another school which needs to sweep their remaining schedule and hope for the best. The remaining schedule, though, is a bookie's dream. They should be 4+ point favorites in all three games, but actually have less of a chance to sweep than Louisville because they don't have anything close to a lock. Pomeroy gives them 72% (Notre Dame), 73% (at Rutgers), and 66% (at St. John's). This gives them a 35% chance of going 3-0. You want that bet? Someone in Vegas is waiting to give it to you.