Oregon (12-4)
Remaining games: at Colorado, at Utah
The last time the Ducks won the Pac 12 it was called the Pac 10 (2002). Prior to that it was the Pacific Coast Conference (1944). It's not exactly a house full of banners at Matthew Knight Arena (1939, woo!) and a shiny new Pac 12 banner would look great in the rafters.
They already had senior night last Thursday, so now the Ducks have to finish on the road against Colorado and Utah. The Utes have been hot garbage, but road wins are still tough to come by. Ken Pomeroy pegs the Ducks odds at 40% and 72% in those two game. This means they have a 29% chance of sweeping the final two, putting the pressure on the teams behind them. Odds are is that they're going to split. Picking up a win on Thursday will obviously change those odds drastically.
UCLA (12-4)
Remaining games: at Washington State, at Washington
For a team with 40 Pac 10 Championships (the conference was under several different names in that time) it's shocking to think they haven't won since 2008.
Like Oregon, the Bruins have already celebrated senior night and will finish on the road. The Pomeroy odds are 63% (at Washington State) and 55% (at Washington), giving them a 35% chance of sweeping. That's slightly better than the Ducks, but UCLA needs better odds because the Ducks hold the tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed in the Pac 12 Tourney.
California (12-5)
Remaining game: Stanford
The Bears are already a half game back of the conference leaders so to have any hope they need to win on Wednesday. That game is against hated Stanford, and Pomeroy gives Cal 65% odds. Cal swept Oregon and split with UCLA, so the tie-breaker permutations get complicated. Based on my read of the rules, Cal would hold the tie-breaker over UCLA as well, as Cal has a better record against the Ducks. The real head splitter will be if UCLA, Oregon and Cal combine to go 0-7, and Arizona wins their game, creating a 4-way tie. But the odd of that happening are just under 1%.
