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Breaking Down the Brackets: East Region

Posted by on Mar 19, 2014 15:19

Welcome to this edition of breaking down the brackets. Up next is the East region. This is another region that features a higher seed than the 1 as it’s favorite. Things like that have made the tournament very unpredictable this year.

If you missed the previews of the South and Midwest, there they are.

Ken Pom

  1. 4 – Virginia
  2. 7 – Villanova
  3. 10 – Michigan State
  4. 23 – Iowa State
  5. 24 – Cincinnati
  6. 25 – Connecticut
  7. 26 – North Carolina
  8. 33 – Harvard
  9. 40 – Memphis
  10. 41 – George Washington
  11. 46 – Providence
  12. 49 – Saint Joseph’s
  13. 73 – North Carolina Central
  14. 103 – Delaware
  15. 168 – Milwaukee
  16. 222 – Coastal Carolina

Ken Pom Offense

  1. 11 – Michigan St
  2. 16 – Iowa St
  3. 17 – Villanova
  4. 22 – Virginia
  5. 28 – Providence
  6. 52 – North Carolina
  7. 53 – Harvard
  8. 59 – Delaware
  9. 66 – Memphis
  10. 68 – St Joe’s
  11. 78 – Connecticut
  12. 80 – George Washington
  13. 112 – Cincinnati
  14. 115 – NC Central
  15. 179 – Milwaukee
  16. 294 – Coastal Carolina

Ken Pom Defense

  1. 3 – Virginia
  2. 9 – Cincinnati
  3. 11 – Connecticut
  4. 16 – Villanova
  5. 19 – North Carolina
  6. 33 – Harvard
  7. 40 – Michigan St
  8. 44 – George Washington
  9. 53 – Memphis
  10. 54 – Iowa St
  11. 56 – St Joe’s
  12. 60 – NC Central
  13. 96 – Providence
  14. 113 – Coastal Carolina
  15. 173 – Milwaukee
  16. 191 – Delaware

Some elite defenses, some very good, some average and some that are not completely awful and then Delaware.

All of the upcoming efficiency numbers are during league play. I ask you to keep in mind that all leagues are not created equal. This is more of a barometer of how these teams have played lately.

Points per Possession – Offense

  1. 1.15 – NCC
  2. 1.15 – Harvard
  3. 1.14 – Villanova
  4. 1.13 – Michigan St
  5. 1.12 – Delaware
  6. 1.12 – Virginia
  7. 1.10 – PC
  8. 1.09 – Iowa St
  9. 1.08 – UNC
  10. 1.07 – Memphis
  11. 1.06 – St Joe’s
  12. 1.06 – UConn
  13. 1.05 – CC
  14. 1.05 – GW
  15. 1.05 – Cincinnati
  16. 1.01 – Milwaukee

Offensive Efficiency

  1. 114.7 – NCC
  2. 114.6 – Harvard
  3. 114.1 – Villanova
  4. 112.5 – Michigan St
  5. 112.1 – Delaware
  6. 111.8 – Virginia
  7. 109.9 – PC
  8. 109.4 – Iowa St
  9. 107.8 – UNC
  10. 106.5 – Memphis
  11. 106.3 – St Joe’s
  12. 106.2 – UConn
  13. 105.5 – CC
  14. 104.9 – GW
  15. 104.7 – Cincinnati
  16. 101.2 – Milwaukee

Points per Possession – Defense

  1. 0.86 – NCC
  2. 0.91 – Harvard
  3. 0.91 – Virginia
  4. 0.95 – Cincinnati
  5. 0.96 – UConn
  6. 0.99 – GW
  7. 1 – CC
  8. 1 – Villanova
  9. 1 – St Joe’s
  10. 1.01 – UNC
  11. 1.02 – Memphis
  12. 1.02 – Michigan St
  13. 1.03 – Delaware
  14. 1.05 – Milwaukee
  15. 1.06 – Iowa St
  16. 1.09 – PC

Defensive Efficiency

  1. 86.4 – NCC
  2. 90.7 – Harvard
  3. 90.9 – Virginia
  4. 94.6 – Cincinnati
  5. 95.9 – UConn
  6. 99.3 – GW
  7. 99.8 – CC
  8. 100.1 – Villanova
  9. 100.3 – St Joe’s
  10. 101.5 – UNC
  11. 102 – Memphis
  12. 102.3 – Michigan St
  13. 103.4 – Delaware
  14. 104.7 – Milwaukee
  15. 106.2 – Iowa St
  16. 108.5 – PC

Looking at these 4 sets of numbers, it’s not too surprising why so many people think Harvard has a good shot at beating Cincinnati. The NCC defense against the Iowa State offense could make for a very interesting 3 / 14 game.

Effective Field Goal % (Weighs 3s)

  1. 55.9 – Harvard
  2. 54.8 – Villanova
  3. 54.3 – Michigan St
  4. 54.3 – St Joe’s
  5. 52.9 – Memphis
  6. 52.1 – Iowa St
  7. 51.5 – GW
  8. 51.5 – NCC
  9. 51.3 – Virginia
  10. 50.1 – Delaware
  11. 49.9 – CC
  12. 49.6 – UConn
  13. 49.4 – UNC
  14. 49.3 – PC
  15. 48.2 – Milwaukee
  16. 48 – Cincinnati

UNC vs Providence could be very good or it could be an ugly game.

Defensive eFG%

  1. 41.7 – NCC
  2. 43.7 – Virginia
  3. 44.4 – UConn
  4. 45 – Cincinnati
  5. 45.4 – Harvard
  6. 46.4 – CC
  7. 46.7 – St Joe’s
  8. 47 – GW
  9. 47.4 – Delaware
  10. 48.3 – Memphis
  11. 48.4 – Villanova
  12. 48.6 – UNC
  13. 48.7 – Michigan St
  14. 49.2 – Iowa St
  15. 49.6 – PC
  16. 49.7 – Milwaukee

Same with Cincinnati vs Harvard if the defenses stay strong. Milwaukee is going to have to be a lot better if they don’t want to get blown out by Villanova.

Free Throw %

  1. 76.6 – UConn
  2. 76.5 – PC
  3. 72.4 – Milwaukee
  4. 71.9 – NCC
  5. 71.5 – Harvard
  6. 70.7 – Cincinnati
  7. 70.7 – Villanova
  8. 70.1 – Delaware
  9. 69.8 – CC
  10. 69.1 – Iowa St
  11. 69 – Michigan St
  12. 67 – Virginia
  13. 64.8 – Memphis
  14. 63.6 – St Joe’s
  15. 63.4 – GW
  16. 62.7 – UNC

There are some bad free throw shooting teams in this region. Goodness. Also some very good ones and a lot of okay ones. But many baby.

Offensive Rebound %

  1. 38 – UNC
  2. 37.4 – NCC
  3. 35.6 – Cincinnati
  4. 34.5 – Memphis
  5. 34 – PC
  6. 34 – Virginia
  7. 33.4 – CC
  8. 33.3 – GW
  9. 32.9 – Michigan St
  10. 31.5 – UConn
  11. 30.7 – Villanova
  12. 29.5 – Milwaukee
  13. 28.1 – Iowa St
  14. 27.9 – Delaware
  15. 27.5 – Harvard
  16. 26.9 – St Joe’s

A lot of teams in this region that don’t hit the glass very hard. That’s going to be interesting to watch.

Defensive Rebound %

  1. 73.7 – Michigan St
  2. 72.9 – Virginia
  3. 72.2 – Villanova
  4. 72.1 – Harvard
  5. 71 – CC
  6. 70.6 – GW
  7. 70.4 – St Joe’s
  8. 70.3 – Iowa St
  9. 69.9 – PC
  10. 69.2 – Milwaukee
  11. 68.8 – UNC
  12. 67.9 – NCC
  13. 67.5 – Cincinnati
  14. 67.1 – Memphis
  15. 66.7 – UConn
  16. 66.4 – Delaware

A handful of teams that murder the defensive glass. Delaware is in trouble if they can’t play above their averages. Memphis as well.

Turnover % – Offense

  1. 11.7 – Delaware
  2. 14.5 – Virginia
  3. 14.9 – Iowa St
  4. 16.6 – Harvard
  5. 16.6 – NCC
  6. 16.9 – UNC
  7. 17 – Villanova
  8. 17.2 – PC
  9. 17.6 – Michigan St
  10. 17.8 – Cincinnati
  11. 17.8 – UConn
  12. 19 – St Joe’s
  13. 19.3 – CC
  14. 19.8 – Memphis
  15. 19.9 – GW
  16. 20 – Milwaukee

A lot of good ball handling teams. A clear divide between the good and the bad.

Turnover % – Defense

  1. 25.2 – NCC
  2. 22.5 – Harvard
  3. 20.8 – Cincinnati
  4. 19.3 – UConn
  5. 19.2 – Villanova
  6. 19.1 – Virginia
  7. 18.6 – Milwaukee
  8. 18.4 – Memphis
  9. 18.3 – UNC
  10. 18 – GW
  11. 17.6 – CC
  12. 17.4 – Michigan St
  13. 17.1 – Delaware
  14. 16.4 – Iowa St
  15. 15.9 – St Joe’s
  16. 14.3 – PC

Three teams that really go after you and the rest are kind of ok to not really pressuring. This should make for some interesting basketball.

Top 16 Scorers

  1. 21.4 – Bryce Cotton, PC
  2. 20.7 – Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati
  3. 20.6 – Jeremy Ingram, NCC
  4. 19.7 – Devon Saddler, Delaware
  5. 19.4 – Davon Usher, Delaware
  6. 18.1 – Melvin Ejim, Iowa St / Jarvis Threatt, Delaware
  7. 17.5 – Langston Galloway, St Joe’s
  8. 17.4 – Marcus Paige, UNC / Shabazz Napier, UConn
  9. 17.1 – Gary Harris, Michigan St
  10. 17 – DeAndre Kane, Iowa St
  11. 16.5 – Georges Niang, Iowa St
  12. 16.1 – Elijah Wilson, CC
  13. 15.8 – Adreian Payne, Michigan St
  14. 15 – Jordan Aaron, Milwaukee
  15. 14.8 – Warren Gillis, CC
  16. 14.5 – James Bell, Nova

Top 10 3 Pointers

  1. 104 – Langston Galloway, St Joe’s
  2. 90 – Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati
  3. 85 – Kyle Anderson, Delaware
  4. 82 – Davon Usher, Delaware
  5. 81 – James Bell, Nova
  6. 79 – Marcus Paige, UNC
  7. 78 – Maurice Creek, GW
  8. 75 – Laurent Rivard, Harvard
  9. 74 – Bryce Cotton, PC
  10. 73 – Gary Harris, Michigan St

Top 10 Rebounders

  1. 291 – Halil Kanacevic, St Joe’s
  2. 284 – Dustin Hogue, Iowa St
  3. 273 – Carl Baptiste, Delaware
  4. 271 – Isaiah Armwood, GW
  5. 265 – Melvin Ejim, Iowa St / LaDontae Henton, PC
  6. 258 – Kadeem Batts, PC
  7. 242 – Akil Mitchell, Virginia
  8. 236 – Justin Jackson, Cincinnati
  9. 228 – Ronald Roberts Jr, St Joe’s
  10. 224 – Kevin Larsen, GW / Matt Tiby, Milwaukee

Top 10 Assists

  1. 210 – Emanuel Chapman, NCC
  2. 197 – Bryce Cotton, PC
  3. 192 – DeAndre Kane, Iowa St
  4. 168 – Shabazz Napier, UConn
  5. 145 – Joe Jackson, Memphis
  6. 144 – Keith Appling, Michigan St / Halil Kanacevic, St Joe’s
  7. 139 – Marcus Paige, UNC / Jarvis Threatt, Delaware
  8. 138 – Siyani Chambers, Harvard
  9. 135 – Steve McWhorter, Milwaukee
  10. 132 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St

Top 5 Steals

  1. 69 – Emanuel Chapman, NCC
  2. 63 – Jarvis Threatt, Delaware
  3. 61 – Davon Usher, Delaware
  4. 60 – Gary Harris, Michigan St
  5. 58 – Shabazz Napier, UConn

Top 5 Blocks

  1. 94 – Justin Jackson, Cincinnati
  2. 85 – Amida Brimah, UConn
  3. 80 – Carson Desrosiers, PC
  4. 57 – Shaq Goodwin, Memphis
  5. 51 – Isaiah Armwood, GW / Halil Kanacevic, St Joe’s

March 20

5) Cincinnati vs 12) Harvard  – 2:10 – TNT

Line: Cincinnati -3

The over under on this game is 122. That’s not a lot of points. This should be an interesting game. Harvard can play seemingly most tempos while Cincinnati likes to go slower. The thing about Harvard is that they have shot very poorly in their losses. With the defense of Cincinnati, I see another one tomorrow.

Cincinnati 63 Harvard 55

4)Michigan State vs 13) Delaware – 4:40 – TNT

Line: Michigan St -14

Delaware is going to have to make 3s to stay in this one. I’m not really liking their chances. Michigan State looked great with everyone healthy in the Big 10 tournament. They should roll.

Michigan St 90 Delaware 71

7)Connecticut vs 10) St Joseph’s – 6:55 – TBS

Line: UConn -4.5

I like this UConn team against anyone who isn’t Louisville. Langston Galloway is a hell of a player and if anyone could will an upset, it’s him. I like UConn maybe a bit too much that I automatically picked them in my brackets. So I’ll pick St Joe’s here because I’m going to be wrong. My brackets are awful.

St Joe’s 62 UConn 59

2) Villanova vs 15) Milwaukee – 9:25 – TBS

Line: Villanova -16.5

This should be a blowout.

Villanova 87 Milwaukee 63

March 21

8) Memphis vs 9) George Washington – 6:55 – TBS

Line: Memphis -3

No feel for this game. At all. I don’t know a lot about George Washington but I do know that Memphis is good enough to win a game and then get floored by Virginia. So that’s my pick.

Memphis 70 GW 69

1) Virginia vs 16) Coastal Carolina

Line: Va -21.5

At least Coastal Carolina got a trip to scenic Raleigh.

Virginia 81 Coastal Carolina 52

6) North Carolina vs 11) Providence – 7:20 – TNT

Line: UNC -4

The numbers have made me think that this could be an uglier game than the up and down fun that it could be. I love Bryce Cotton so I’m going for the upset.

Providence 75 North Carolina 73

3) Iowa State vs 14) North Carolina Central – 9:50 – TNT

Line: ISU -8.5

Watched NC Central against Cincinnati earlier in the year and I came away very impressed. This seems like the type of game they can win. ISU is a jump shooting team. If they miss, they are vulnerable. Ultimately though, I think they have too much talent. Jeremy Ingram will have a hell of a game. He could make One Shining Moment. I don’t think he’ll win though, as much as I want to pick the upset.

Iowa State 70 NC Central 63

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on the Student Section.

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