Now the 2016 NFL draft is ready for prime time.
The Eagles traded up from No. 8 to No. 2 in the first round Wednesday, according to Pro Football Talk, and it’s a virtual certainty that quarterbacks will be taken with the top two picks.
The Rams, who traded from No. 15 to No. 1 last week, are expected to draft either Carson Wentz or Jared Goff with the Eagles taking whichever one of those quarterbacks remains.
If the first two picks of the draft are Wentz-Goff or Goff-Wentz, it would be just the ninth time that quarterbacks have been taken with the first two picks. The Eagles and Rams should beware. When quarterbacks are taken first and second, rarely do both of them pan out in the NFL.
Among the top five 1-2 quarterback draft duos, there’s a prevailing theme of one quarterback’s standout career balancing out the bust. Here’s the top five of a list that should serve as a history lesson for the Eagles and Rams.
No. 5: Jameis Winston-Marcus Mariota (2015)
That’s right. On upside alone Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are good enough to make this list.
Winston, drafted first by the Buccaneers, threw 22 touchdown passes for a 6-10 team as a rookie. He’ll need to do something about those 15 interceptions, but he’s shown a command of the huddle and has the characteristics of a franchise quarterback. Mariota, drafted second by the Titans, went just 3-9 as a starter but twice was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. He completed 62.2 percent of his passes while throwing 19 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.
No. 4: Tim Couch-Donovan McNabb (1999)
We all know the story of Donovan McNabb being booed on draft day. Six Pro Bowls, 37,276 passing yards and one Super Bowl appearance later, those boos seem kind of silly.
The Eagles can’t complain if they get out of the No. 2 pick this year what they got out of the No. 2 pick in 1999. Tim Couch drags down this 1-2 quarterback draft combo, but perhaps he’s been treated almost as unfairly as McNabb was when he was drafted. He’s permanently labeled a bust, but there have been worse busts in NFL history. Yes, Couch was 22-37 as a starter and threw 64 touchdown passes and 67 interceptions. He was the first draft pick the Browns made when the franchise was brought back to Cleveland. He had little talent around him, and that includes the offensive line. He only started 16 games once in an injury-plagued career and he was done in 2003 at age 26.
No. 3: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III (2012)
Andrew Luck brought the Colts one step closer to the Super Bowl in each of his first three years. He led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes in 2014 and led the Colts to the AFC championship game. His career went sideways because of injuries in 2015, but there’s still no doubt the Colts made the right decision in drafting Luck over Robert Griffin III.
As for Griffin, his career fell off a cliff after he was named the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, Griffin isn’t yet a lock for the Bust Hall of Fame. He has a chance to revive his career in Cleveland, and by trading out of the No. 2 spot the Browns are suggesting that he’s going to get that opportunity.
No. 2: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf (1998)
Ryan Leaf? How can Ryan Leaf possibly be No. 2 on any list with the word “best” in the title?
Because of Peyton Manning.
Only five quarterbacks drafted first or second since 1939 are in the Hall of Fame. Manning will be the sixth. He has two Super Bowl rings. He was named league MVP five times and he’s the all-time leader in touchdown passes (539), passing yards (71,940), game-winning drives (56) and comebacks (45).
Leaf, drafted second by the Chargers, threw two touchdown passes and 15 interceptions in nine games as a rookie. A shoulder injury sidelined him for the 1999 season, and he wasn’t any better when he returned to the field in 2000. He played three games for the Cowboys in 2001 before his career ended. That career included a 4-17 record as a starter, a 48.4 completion percentage, 14 touchdowns, 36 interceptions and a 50.0 passer rating.
But for the purpose of this list, Manning bails him out.
No. 1: Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning (1971)
Jim Plunkett, drafted first overall by the Patriots, was 72-72 as a starter and threw 198 interceptions with just 164 touchdown passes. He won two Super Bowls, however, just not for the team that drafted him. Plunkett was the MVP of Super Bowl XV, leading the Oakland Raiders to a 27-10 win over the Eagles. He also completed 16 of 25 passes with a touchdown in the Los Angeles Raiders’ 38-9 decimation of the Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII. Plunkett was 8-2 in the postseason.
Archie Manning never appeared in a playoff game, but he did make two Pro Bowls in a 14-year career. His resumé doesn’t come close to that of Peyton or Eli, but he and Plunkett both had lengthy careers with periods of modest success. That rarely happens to both quarterbacks when they’re drafted first and second overall.
