When the free agency market opens later this afternoon, at 4 p.m. ET, many NFL players will be seeking large contracts, but most of them will have to settle a more practical amount.
While these players may post solid statistics in their tenures in the league, NFL front offices are more interested in the “bigger picture,” looking to stay under the salary cap.
Does Michael Vick and his agent really believe multiple NFL teams are going to come calling with a long-term contract offer? And what about an aging defensive back like Ryan Clark? Unfortunately for these types of veterans and many more, the market will not play out to their likings.
This article will focus on seven players who currently have low stocks and won’t receive much play on the market, which opens later this afternoon.
1. Michael Vick, quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
This soon-to-be 34-year-old signal caller’s best days are behind him. Three years removed from being a viable starting quarterback, the best Vick can hope for this offseason is a short-term contract from a rebuilding team looking to add a veteran as a stopgap measure. The veteran has thrown 27 interceptions and has tallied 12 lost fumbles over the course of his last 29 starts. He also boasts a pedestrian 12-17 record during that span.
It’s the same old issues for Vick. He can’t read defenses, makes horrible decisions throwing into tight windows and possesses below-average pocket awareness. All things we look at when scouting a rookie signal caller. It’s nearly impossible to think that Vick can turn around those aspects of his game at this stage of his career.
Josh McCown and Shaun Hill are both better veteran options than Vick at this time. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about Vick’s value heading into the start of free agency. Sure a team like the Oakland Raiders or Cleveland Browns could show interest in him as competition in training camp, but it’s more likely that the veteran is forced to go to a team as a backup.
Peter King things Michael Vick to 49ers is dark horse possibility. I’m skeptical for now http://t.co/fkFFTKKhuE
— Niners Nation (@NinersNation) March 10, 2014
Vick might fit in well as a No. 2 on a contending team. He could step in for a game or two should the starter go down and give the team a chance to win. In addition, this would enable the veteran to go out on a high note. Either way, the days of Vick earning starter-caliber money are over.
2. Darren McFadden, running back, Oakland Raiders
When on the field, McFadden is among the most electric running backs in the NFL. He’s averaging five yards per carry and about 70 all-purpose yards per game thus far in his NFL career. The former No. 4 overall pick put up a career-high 1,664 total yards and 10 touchdowns back in 2010. With all this said, it’s the injuries that have led many to believe McFadden will have to settle for a short-term deal.
Since that 2010 season, McFadden has missed 40 percent of Raiders regular season games. And overall, he’s missed about 30 percent of all the possible games he could have suited up for since joining the league back in 2008.
Despite this red flag, there are some reports out there that teams are showing early interest in the talented but injury-prone running back.
Report: “Significant interest” for RB Darren McFadden; but will that lead to a significant offer? http://t.co/dUWr2vERsB
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) March 11, 2014
Mike Florio actually raises a good point here. What type of interest is McFadden drawing as we hit the start of the new league year? Are teams looking at him as a decent one-year stopgap option or is there a team out there willing to dole out $4-$5 million on a longer-term deal? All indications are that the interest is likely on a shorter-term contract. In reality, this might be McFadden’s best option right now.
Why not go to a team like the Miami Dolphins or Cleveland Browns for a season and build up your value? This is what I expect McFadden to do on a deal that likely won’t surpass $1 million in guarantees.
3. Richie Incognito, guard, Miami Dolphins
Back in 2012, Pro Football Focus graded Incognito out among the top-25 guards in the NFL. In the end, Incognito earned his first trip to the Pro Bowl that season. That wrapped up a three-year span that saw Incognito start 47 of a possible 48 games. In terms of his style of play, the guard has always been considered one of the dirtiest and toughest players in the entire league.
In fact, a poll conducted by CNNSI during Incognito’s St. Louis Rams’ days indicated that he was the seventh-dirtiest player in the NFL according to opposing players around the league. At that time, he was considered nothing short of a throwback offensive lineman that most NFL teams would drool over.
Well, times have changed.
Ted Wells’ report on the Incognito-Jonathan Martin scandal doesn’t necessarily paint either of them in the best light, but Incognito comes across as nothing more than a unstable individual, per the report.
This scandal coupled with Incognito’s reputation around the league isn’t going to help his value as the second-tier of free agency picks up before the draft in May. As it stands, the market may not be kind to the former Pro Bowl guard until then.
4. Brandon Browner, cornerback, Seattle Seahawks
Even if we decide not to focus on the four-game suspension that Browner faces to start the 2014 season, just how much play should Browner get on the free agent market? According to Pro Football Focus, Browner was Seattle’s fourth-best cornerback in 2012, the last full season he suited up during. In reality, he had one career year back in 2011 and has done nothing since. At 29 years old and with a ton of off-field questions, it’s hard to imagine Browner getting a ton of play on the free agent market.
No. 96 on @CBSSports‘ free agent tracker –> RT @EyeOnNFL: Brandon Browner to be suspended for first 4 games of ’14 – http://t.co/5euls0xL57
— CBSSports.com (@CBSSports) March 5, 2014
The former Pro Bowl cornerback is likely looking at a one-year deal with very little guaranteed money, similar to the deal that Nnamdi Asomugha took with the 49ers last offseason. This doesn’t mean that Browner can’t be a difference maker in 2014. It’s only an indication that his value as a starting cornerback is a thing of the recent past.
5. Anthony Spencer, defensive end, Dallas Cowboys
A year ago, Spencer was guaranteed to be a top-five paid defensive end after Dallas placed the franchise tag on him. The former first-round pick decided to hedge his bets on the 2013 season rather than sign a long-term deal. Unfortunately for the former Pro Bowl performer, he missed all but one game after injuring his knee in Week 1. In a market flush will solid pass-rush options, it’s hard to imagine a seven-year veteran with just one great season under his belt getting a ton of play.
It’s also important to note that Spencer wasn’t a natural fit in the Cowboys 4-3 scheme, even before he went down with injury. This will pretty much limit his market to teams who operate out of 4-3 defensive fronts.
Anthony Spencer has nearly 7 teams interested in him.
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) March 9, 2014
Teams like the San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers may show some interest in Spencer. But that would be solely as a backup or No.3 option. Look for the veteran to possibly sign a one-year prove-it deal.
6. Michael Oher, offensive tackle, Baltimore Ravens
The guy who inspired the movie “Blindside” isn’t a starter-caliber left tackle in the NFL. Imagine that. Oher, who came to the Ravens as a first-round pick back in 2009, has been utterly disastrous protecting Joe Flacco’s blindside in his career. Where Oher has succeeded to a certain extent is at right tackle, a position that he seems more naturally suited to play moving forward.
Oher finished with a -12.6 overall grade in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus. For comparison’s sake, that ranked him behind the likes of Charles Brown and Jonathan Martin. In fact, only eight of a qualified 76 offensive tackles graded out lower than Oher.
Photo courtesy of Pro Football Focus
If we are going off popularity and reputation alone, Oher would be a highly sought-after free agent option for a team in need of an upgrade. However, that’s not how it works around NFL front offices. It is, and will forever be a “what have you done for me recently league?” In this, Oher is barely a starter-caliber tackle in the NFL. While other top-tier free agents may see a nice payday at this position, Oher is likely to get a rude awakening when the new league year starts this afternoon.
7. Ryan Clark, Safety, Pittsburgh Steelers
Clark has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh’s defense over the years. He’s started 109 games since joining the team back in 2007 and has acted as a great running partner with future Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu. Much like everything outside of fine wine, success in the NFL has a short shelf life. Now 12 years into his NFL career, Clark has finally begun to lose a few steps on the field.
Clark finished with a negative overall grade in 2013 for the first time since 2007, according to Pro Football Focus. In fact, his drop from +11.8 in 2012 to -1.5 last year was among the steepest in the entire league.
We could be looking at a drop in production similar to what we saw from Ed Reed with the Houston Texans and New York Jets last season. While he used to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player, his age is catching up to him, and he’s moving more like a below-average safety at the current time.
