8 Overvalued Free Agents Who Aren’t Worth Hefty Price Tags

Donte Whitner, Brian Quick

With the NFL salary cap set at $133 million, there will be many impending free agents expecting big paydays over the next few weeks. While certain top-tier players will receive exorbitant amounts of money, others will be left with sad faces after the market doesn’t meet their demands.

For the most part, this cycle has been happening since the advent of the salary cap back in 1994. Whether it’s agents overvaluing their clients, or players expecting more than what they should realistically be looking at, it’s a broken record.

Will veteran running backs such as Maurice Jones-Drew, Ben Tate and Darren McFadden be met with weak markets? What about a Pro Bowl-caliber player at a position of lesser importance? Only time will tell, but we won’t have to wait long to find out.

This article will focus on eight impending free agents with high price tags who may be let down once the free agency market opens.

1. Brandon Spikes (linebacker, New England Patriots)

New England isn’t going to even make an effort to bring Spikes back, according to the Boston Herald. They cite a lack of professionalism during his four-year run with the team as one of the primary reasons for this. If these concerns weren’t enough, Spikes only averaged a tad over 46 snaps per game last season. He’s not a three-down linebacker at this stage and according to Pro Football Focus, put up a -3.6 grade against the pass.  He did rank first among inside linebackers against the run, but this split is what suggests he’s not a three-down backer at this point.

These aren’t the type of free agents that usually break the bank. Rotoworld grades Spikes out as the second-best free agent inside linebacker behind Karlos Dansby. He was ranked third prior to Donald Butler agreeing to an long-term deal with the San Diego Chargers. While this might give the former second-round pick some leverage, don’t expect him to receive a deal for more than $3.5 million per year.

2. Walter Thurmond III (cornerback, Seattle Seahawks)

Just how many teams are going to line up to give a player who has a suspension under his belt a long-term deal? That’s the major question that faces Thurmond in a free agent market that would otherwise likely draw out a bidding war for his services. While Thurmond has started only eight games in his four-year career, he has taken on more of a role in Seattle recently. The cornerback did not allow a single touchdown pass when targeted last season and was solid in the Seahawks coverage scheme. It’s now all about him proving that the suspension is behind him.

Unfortunately, it’s a buyers market at the cornerback position with the likes of Aqib Talib, Alterraun Verner, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tarell Brown, Vontae Davis and Sam Shields all slated to get bigger deals than Thurmond. Even as the best of the second-tier options, he’s not going to see a contract that averages south of $5 million per season.

3. Ben Tate (running Back, Houston Texans)

Running backs tend to find rather quiet free agent markets, as teams look to draft young ones with low milage. One of the primary reasons is that teams tend to believe they can get younger and cheaper at that position in the draft. Tate may have been waiting a long time for his opportunity to be a three-down running back at this level, but it’s not going to net him a huge payday on the open market.

Tate has indicated that he doesn’t plan to return to Houston. This makes a ton of sense considering that the team already owes Arian Foster $24 million over the next three seasons and isn’t in the best of salary cap situation.

First off, the Auburn product is averaging barely over 10 rush attempts per game in his NFL career. Second, he’s never played a full 16-game season and missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury. Finally, there aren’t a whole lot of teams out there that need a high-priced running back. The Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders are likely to be among Tate’s most interested suitors.

All these factors listed above coupled with a less-than-stellar 2013 campaign leads me to believe that Tate is looking at a deal that will average him a little less than $5 million per season. Something to the tune of the four-year, $16 million contract that Reggie Bush signed with the Detroit Lions last season is likely what’s in the cards for Tate.

4. Donte Whitner (safety, San Francisco 49ers)

I won’t go so far as to say that strong safeties are a dime a dozen in the NFL, but that’s how teams around the league feel about this position. Take Bernard Pollard for example. The veteran signed a two-year contract that could be worth up to $6.4 million with incentives.

Despite putting up a solid 2013 campaign, the 29-year-old safety didn’t even attempt to test the free agent market. While Whitner promises to be a bigger prize than Pollard on the open market, if the Pro Bowler thinks he’s going to break the bank, he’s sadly mistaken. Prior to emerging in coverage over the past two seasons, Whitner was seen as a liability in that category throughout his NFL career. He also made some huge mistakes in the back end of the 49ers secondary late in the 2013 season, including two specific plays in the NFC Championship game that led to big plays for the Seahawks.

It’s also important to note that the 2014 NFL draft is stacked with solid strong safeties. The likes of Deone Bucannon, Dion Bailey, Jimmie Ward and Ahmad Dixon, all of whom could start as rookies. Whitner has turned into a darn good safety in the NFL, but that’s not going to translate to a Dashon Goldson-type free agent deal this spring.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew (running back, Jacksonville Jaguars)

If Tate isn’t going to get the deal that he desires, Jones-Drew is likely going to be in for a rude awakening come next week. He put up just 803 rushing yards and a career-low 3.4 yards per carry average. Neither number suggests that Jones-Drew is anything more than a mediocre veteran running back with a lot of miles on him at this point.

Some will argue that he had no passing game with the Jaguars and had to face seven or eight-men boxes. While this is a legitimate point, Jones-Drew appears to be in the back end of what has been a stellar career. With over 2,100 touches in eight seasons, it’s just a matter of time before Jones-Drew hits that proverbial wall that we’ve seen running backs hit throughout the history of the league.

Michael DiRocco of ESPN suggests that the Jaguars will offer Jones-Drew an incentive-laden two-year contract. He continues in the report indicating that some team will give Jones-Drew the money he seeks. I just don’t see it that way. Why would a team like the Raiders overpay for a veteran running back who won’t be around when their rebuilding process is complete?

6. James Jones (wide receiver, Green Bay Packers)

Jones would like to remain with the Packers but will test the free agent market, according to NFL.com. He’s openly mentioned the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers as possibilities. While the market won’t be thin for  Jones’ services, some will look at his production over the past two seasons (123 receptions, 1,601 yards and 17 touchdowns) as skewed a bit because he was catching balls from Aaron Rodgers in a pass-happy offense.

That being said, he’s still 33 years old, and isn’t getting any younger.

A good comparison to draw is when Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson hit the open market. Neither received the offers that they had expected after performing extremely well with the New Orleans Saints. They were products of a great system.

Rotoworld has Jones listed as its current No. 5 free agent wide receiver after both Jeremy Maclin and Anquan Boldin re-signed with their respective teams. Interestingly enough, some seem to believe that Jones’ market will be pretty strong in terms of length of contract and guaranteed money.

I just don’t see it that way. Teams are going to use Rodgers and the Packers as a negotiating ploy here and they would be dumb not to. Do you envision Jones having the same impact with a team like the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars or even the St. Louis Rams? I didn’t think so. As it is, Jones will likely get a four or five-year deal around $5 million per year, which is comparable to what Riley Cooper received from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this offseason.

7. Hakeem Nicks, (wide receiver, New York Giants)

Nicks accomplished one major feat last season: He was targeted 98 times without scoring a single touchdown.

Outside of that precarious statistic, the former first-round pick dropped seven passes as Eli Manning was intercepted seven times when targeting him. A total of 14 percent of the balls thrown in Nicks’ direction in 2013 were either dropped or intercepted. If we were to look at a baseball statistic such as WAR (wins above replacement), Nicks would be rather low on that list.

After putting up two consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns in 2011 and 2012, Nicks has struggled a great deal. He has racked up just 109 receptions for 1,588 yards and three touchdowns over his last 26 games. Manning also sports a ridiculously low 53.4 quarterback rating when targeting the impending free agent during that span.

Despite this, Rotoworld has Nicks as its second-ranked free agent wide receiver behind Eric Decker.

Not to single them out, others also believe that Nicks is in for a big payday this offseason.

I honestly don’t see it. The best bet for Nicks is to sign a one-year contract with a team that fits his skillset the best and boasts a solid quarterback under center. This will enable him to blow up big time in 2014 and possibly return to 2011 form. If so, he can get that big payday in 2015. If Nicks is confident in his ability, which I am sure he is, that would be the right move for him rather than to accept a longer-term deal with less annual money.

8. Knowshon Moreno (running back, Denver Broncos)

Was Moreno more a product of Peyton Manning than anything else in 2013? This is an important question to answer, especially considering how other marginal running backs have performed with Manning under center, both in Indianapolis and Denver. Joseph Addai, anyone? The statistics (1,586 total yards and 13 touchdowns) are hard to argue against, but NFL front offices don’t utilize fantasy football as a gauge for who they should target in free agency and how much they should offer said targets.

You can pretty much eliminate the Broncos as a potential suitor. They’re sold on Montee Ball as their featured running back and spent a third-round pick in 2012 on Ronnie Hillman. As you might expect, free-agent running backs don’t necessarily do too well on the open market. Reggie Bush received a four-year, $16 million contact from the Detroit Lions while Steven Jackson settled on a three-year, $12 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons last season.

This is the same type of money that Moreno can expect on the open market. Unless, of course, a team like the Oakland Raiders, who have a ton of money to spend, open up their pocket books and overpay the free agent running back.


Vincent Frank is the head editor at eDraft and the managing editor at Sportsnaut. He also writes for Pro Football Focus & Yahoo. Vincent’s favorite quote comes from Rumi: “You were born with wings, why prefer to crawl through life?” Check him out on Twitter: @VincentFrankNFL.

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