NFC Championship Preview: Best of the NFC West to Battle on Big Stage

kap wilson

This is the game NFL fans have all been waiting for. The one analysts predicted would happen in the summer. Two heated division rivals with bitter coaches going up against one another in a football game that may end up being sports’ rival to the Mongol conquests of Baghdad. Blood will be spilled in this epic NFC Championship game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and NFC West-winning Seattle Seahawks come Sunday night at CenturyLink in the Pacific Northwest. Heck, Lewis and Clark may want to stay off the beaten path.

Moving on from weak-handed attempts at historical knowledge, let’s go ahead and actually cover the football game itself. Here is The Sports Daily’s official preview of the 2014 NFC Championship game.

Tale of the Tape

Defenses Readjusting to Russell Wilson’s Tendencies: We will cover the statistical aspect of the game a bit further down the road here, but let’s first take a gander at some game tape, courtesy of the greatest invention in the history of nerdology (NFL’s All-22). Wilson has had a struggle of it over the course of his last five games. During that span Seattle has gone a mediocre 3-2 after starting the season with a robust 11-1 record.

Untitled

Wilson’s height came into question leading up to the 2012 NFL draft. Those who decided to look solely at his frame missed out on one major thing. The 5’11” quarterback, much like Drew Brees in New Orleans, does a great job overcoming this perceived shortcoming. Consider this. The former third-round pick worked behind a rather big offensive line at Wisconsin and still put up one of the best single-seasons in the history of the program. He does a tremendous job finding lanes to throw through between the hashes and NFL defenses really haven’t had an answer for it—until now.

You can see in the screen cap above, taken from San Francisco’s Week 14 victory over Seattle, that NaVorro Bowman spies Wilson from the middle of the field. He has two main responsibilities:

  • Ensure that Wilson doesn’t take off when the pocket collapses.
  • Force the quarterback to throw over the top of the defense from the pocket.

The trajectory of the ball in this specific play is nowhere near where Wilson wants it. The end result is a ridiculously inaccurate down-field incompletion to Doug Baldwin on third and 12 in Seattle’s initial possession of the game. Teams have been not only utilizing spies on Wilson recently, which have been employed since his very first college start, they are now asking those spies to take on an added responsibility. If performed correctly, Wilson has struggled with accuracy down the field form the pocket.

Much like throughout his entire career, even dating back to high school ball, Wilson is among the best at adjusting to what defenses are doing and taking advantage of it.

Untitled

Wilson understands what Bowman’s role is here. The linebacker is, again, tasked with shadowing him. Once the quarterback understands that nothing is going to happen down the middle, he immediately turns his attention to the right hash, where Golden Tate has soft coverage against Eric Wright. Notice how two of Seattle’s offensive linemen engage the pass rushers at the point of contact? This enables Wilson to find a nice lane to throw through. The end result being a 16-yard completion to Tate. While the receiver was called for offensive PI on the play, this is a prime example of Seattle and Wilson being able to adjust to his perceived shortcoming, even within the context of a single game.

How do you combat that?

Stunt at the line with two pass rushers and keep Seattle’s offensive guessing as to which one will attempt to hit the pocket strong and which one will drop back to take away the throwing lane. San Francisco failed miserably in doing that on this one specific play.

One of Wilson’s best attributes is getting outside the pocket and either running or launching the ball down the field. This is something that he has had success with during his short NFL career. Teams may have started to focus on closing off the edges and forcing Wilson in the pocket, but he’s more than capable of causing major issues in that aspect of the game.

66dqn

The most important aspect of stopping Wilson is to keep him inside of the pocket. If a defense is unable to do that, it will struggle big time keeping him from passing the ball down the field and getting consistent yardage through the air.

The GIF to your left shows Wilson scrambling to his right and finding an open receiver in the back of the end zone.

 

Notice how Arizona did a poor job maintaining the edges on that play? Their pass rushers all went upfield, which enabled the talented quarterback to find open room to run to in order to get the throw off.

Now let’s go back to the 49ers game in Week 14 and check to see how their defense handled Wilson in nearly the same situation. Remember, the second-year quarterback has struggled a great deal recently. This touchdown pass depicted above came at a time when he was playing some tremendous football.

Untitled

If this photo expanded any further to the right, you would notice three 49ers’ linebackers in position to take control between the hashes. Two were occupied with maintaining secondary-level coverage, while the third (Bowman) was shadowing Wilson. There is nowhere for Wilson to go outside of the pocket as it relates to throwing on the run. Instead he surveys the field and attempts to find Tate towards the left hash. 49ers’ cornerback Tramaine Brock jumped the route and almost came away with an interception.

This is where defenses can take away Wilson’s athletic ability and make him throw over the top of their defensive line from the pocket. While he can have some success boxed in like that, Wilson is tremendously inconsistent when all other possibilities are taken away from him. This is also what defenses have been focusing on doing over the past five games. Wilson finished Seattle’s Week 14 matchup with San Francisco 15-of-25 passing for less than 200 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Equally as important, he tallied just two yards on a single rush attempt. You can see why.

Sizing up the Quarterbacks

This is one of those storylines that can be overplayed and overhyped to the point where we simply don’t want to hear much more about it. Let’s go ahead and compare Instagram accounts, should we? What about how Kaepernick wears his hat? Has to be an absolute thug from the tough streets of Turlock, California. It’s the mainstream media at its absolute worst. Well, maybe not… 

Untitled

The narrative has played out all season. Wilson was in the midst of continuing an upward spike that actually started to allow him being mentioned as a semi-serious MVP candidate. Meanwhile, Kaepernick was struggling to maintain the high level of play that we had seen during his first half season as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Six weeks later, these two signal callers are much closer than most would like you to believe.  Here are their regular season stats.

  Comp % Passing Yds Rushing Yds Total Yds AVG Comp AVG Att AVG Rush Fum Loss QBR Rating TD INT  Record
Wilson 63.1 3357 539 3896 13.1 8.2 5.6 10 5 58.94 101.2 27 9  13-3
Kaepernick 58.4 3197 524 3721 13.2 7.7 5.7 5 4 68.64 91.6 25 8  12-4

It was a strong start from Wilson that had many believing he was heads and shoulders ahead of his adversary in the NFC West. The talented quarterback tallied 23 total touchdowns compared to six interceptions in his first 12 games of the season, leading Seattle to an 11-1 record in the process.

Meanwhile, Kaepernick struggled after a dazzling performance against the Green Bay Packers out of the gate. He recorded zero touchdowns compared to five interceptions during San Francisco’s two-game losing streak to the Seattle and the Indianapolis Colts. Overall, Kaepernick boasted just eight total touchdowns and five interceptions in his first six games of the seasons.

This lent credence to the idea that once the NFL figured Kaepernick out, he would be in trouble. He struggled finding open windows to throw through between the hashes, had major issues with accuracy and pocket presence was below average. These haven’t been issues for the most part recently. Including both of San Francisco’s postseason outings this year, Kaepernick has tallied 20 touchdowns compared to four interceptions and a 102.4 quarterback rating in his last 12 outings.

The really interesting dynamic here, however, is that Kaepernick has been aces on the road since San Francisco’s Week 2 beatdown at the hands of the Seahawks at CenturyLink. The third-year quarterback has 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last nine road starts. Overall in his career, Kaepernick possesses a 11-4 record with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions away from Candlestick. That’s mighty impressive.

It also doesn’t compare in any way to what Wilson has done in his short career at CenturyLink. He has a career 16-1 record with 33 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions for a 112.8 quarterback rating. Yeah, that’s pretty good.

CenturyLink Field

UntitledThere is no other way to put it, but to say that this stadium has been a house of horrors for Jim Harbaugh’s club since they defeated Seattle back in Week 16 of the 2011 season, his first year with the 49ers. In the two games that have proceeded, San Francisco has been outscored by a total of 56 points and have turned the ball over a ridiculous seven times in the process. To put that into perspective, the 49ers have a combined seven turnovers in their last 12 games. Simply put, the way San Francisco has performed at The Link in these last two games runs contrary to  how it has played in nearly every other game during the Harbaugh regime.

I can go ahead and get into detail about what San Francisco must do here in order to avoid another humiliating loss, but that’s better reserved for a Yahoo! article I wrote earlier in the week. However, here is the basic premise.

1) Don’t Waste Timeouts: San Francisco has had a knack for wasting timeouts early in the game and to start the second half. This will only make Seattle’s loud fan base that much more vocal. The best way to go about avoiding the dreaded “wasted timeout” will be to get the play call in early and communicate the the line prior to the snap.

2) Communication: This goes for both the offense and the defense. San Francisco has had a lot of miscommunication issues at the line with Kaepernick under center. Whether it’s receivers lining up wrong or him not receiving the play in time, this needs to be fixed.

If San Francisco can do these two things, CenturyLink will become a much “easier” place to actually play football for the road team

Key Matchups

Anquan Boldin vs Richard Sherman: Sherman absolutely owned Boldin in Seattle’s  Week 2 beatdown of the 49ers. The veteran Pro Bowl performer went for just one reception and seven yards on three targets in that game. There might be some thought given to the idea that Sherman will be going up against Michael Crabtree in this one, which happened at times back in Week 14. With that said, the obvious matchup has to be Boldin-Sherman in the biggest game of the season for both stars. It is, however, important to note that Boldin did go for six receptions and over 90 yards on seven targets in the last meeting, as Seattle didn’t have the luxury of focusing solely on him with Crabtree on the field.

Justin Smith and Aldon Smith vs Russell Okung: Wilson’s blindside protector has been injury plagued all season long, but when healthy he’s among the best pass-protecting tackles in the game. Where Pro Football Focus did give Okung a negative in pass protection during the regular year, a lot of that had to do with his toe injury. For their part, the Smith Brothers are two of the most dominating players at their position in the entire NFL.

Aldon put up 37 quarterback hurries and nine sacks in an shortened 11-game regular season. Meanwhile, Justin was Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best pass-rushing 3-4 defensive end in the NFL this season. When the elder Smith lines up inside with Aldon lining up next to him on the outside, the former will be going up against left guard Paul McQuistan, who was one of the worst pass-protecting offensive linemen in the entire league this year.

Vernon Davis vs Malcolm Smith/K.J. Wright and Earl Thomas: If anyone can shut down the ridiculous playoff performer that VD has become over the past three seasons, it has to be the safety that boasts the best range from that position that I have ever seen. Not only is Thomas the best safety in the NFL, he should be mentioned among the top Defensive Player of the Year candidates in the league. Davis accumulated five receptions for 81 yards on just seven targets in two games against Seattle during the regular season. San Francisco will need to see more production from him if its going to move the ball consistently on offense.

The issue here for the road-tripping 49ers is that Thomas has been targeted just 33 times in 17 games this year and is yielding just 15.2 receiving yards per outing. Thomas’ worst outing of the season came at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and rookie tight end Tim Wright, who recorded two touchdowns against the All-Pro free safety. At the very least, that might give Davis some sense of confidence heading into this one. The Pro Bowl tight end is averaging 3.6 receptions for 86 yards and one touchdown per game during his postseason career.

49ers Defensive Front vs Marshawn Lynch: Not many running backs give San Francisco a lot of trouble on the ground. It hasn’t yielded a 1oo-yard rusher in 22 games, dating back to Lynch’s performance back in Week 16 of the 2012 season. Lynch also put up the best single-game rushing performance against the 49ers this season, going for 98 yards back in Week 2. Overall, Beast Mode has been a tremendous thorn in the 49ers’ side for some time now. He’s averaging nearly 100 rushing yards per game in his last five outings against the 49ers.

With Ian Williams suffering a broken ankle in the first matchup between these two teams back in September, Glenn Dorsey took over along the interior of the 49ers defensive line. He’s going to have to have a big game up front if the 49ers are going to be able to contain Lynch. If that happens, it will put more pressure on Wilson to make plays in the passing game, which hasn’t happened as of late.

Biggest Mismatch

Ray McDonald and Ahmad Brooks vs Breno Giacomini: This is one tremendous mismatch in favor of the road team. While Giacomini has improved in pass protection, Seattle will have to push blocking assignments to his side in this one. Ahmad Brooks, coming off his first Pro Bowl campaign, is playing the best ball of any remaining defender in the NFL right now. He has tallied a total of seven quarterback hits and five sacks in the postseason thus far, dominating opposing offensive lines in the process.

Brooks wouldn’t be performing at this high level if it wasn’t for the vastly underrated McDonald in front of him on San Francisco’s front seven. The veteran defensive end does a tremendous job clogging up blocking lanes, which enables Brooks to come through the outside untouched. For his part, Giacomini has allowed just 16 quarterback hurries and one sack in six games since returning from injury. With that said, if Okung struggles on the other side of the line, he my find himself out on an island at right tackle.

By the Numbers (via ESPN’s SportsCenter)

BeB7BV8CYAArW-u

* Jim Harbaugh’s .746 winning percentage is the third-highest mark in NFL history for a coach with a minimum of 50 games under his belt. Only Guy Chamberlin and John Madden rank ahead of him, with Vince Lombardi coming in fourth.

* San Francisco and Seattle outscored their opponents by total of 320 points during the regular season. That’s an average of 11.4 points per game. The highest such total for two teams meeting in the playoffs in NFL history.

* Russell Wilson’s 24 regular season victories are the most in NFL history for a quarterback in his first two seasons. Ben Roethlisberger previously held that record with 22.

* Colin Kaepernick now has more road postseason wins (three) in his career than the 49ers franchise had from 1949-2011.

* San Francisco is averaging 32.1 points per game in its last nine road games, while the Seahawks are giving up just 12 points per game at home in their last four outings.

* Wilson and Kaepernick boast a combined 47-16 career record as starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Their .746 combined winning percentage is the best in the history of the NFL for two quarterbacks starting against one another in the history of the league. Manning and Brady are No. 2 on that list at .731, though the sample size is much larger there.

* Vernon Davis now has seven career postseason touchdowns, all of them coming in the last three years. He’s now tied for the most in playoff history among tight ends and is only second behind Jerry Rice on the 49ers’ all-time list.

Final Prediction

San Francisco 49ers 23, Seattle Seahawks 17

It’s important to ask yourself who the best team is RIGHT NOW. While Seattle was a better unit for the vast majority of the regular season, San Francisco’s current eight-game winning streak coupled with the Seahawks recent struggles on offense leads me to believe that Kaepernick and Co. will go into CenturyLink and come out with a rather historic victory.

While Kaepernick has struggled in two games in the Pacific Northwest, he’s playing much better overall football than his counterpart right now. Even if the third-year quarterback only duplicates the performances we have seen in the first two postseason games this year, San Francisco will likely come out on top.

You can expect the 49ers defense to focus on stopping Lynch on the ground. This could give Wilson one-on-one situations on the outside, but his receivers have struggled a great deal gaining separation in recent weeks. In addition, Wilson has has some major issues getting in rhythm through the air. Remember, we focused on that earlier.

By virtue of having to play in the tough conditions in the wild card round against the Packers, San Francisco is battle tested. While they going up against recent trends, the 49ers are simply a better team than the Seahawks right now. It should result in a return trip to the Super Bowl.

Quantcast