Week 4 will confirm or confuse our notions about which NFL teams can be trusted to handle business as favorites against ostensibly lesser competition.
Here are five underdogs that could, very well, win straight up in Week 4.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Jay Cutler is feeling extremely confident in his receivers right now, and they are rewarding his faith in key situations. There are usually at least one or two poor decisions made by the Bears QB in each game, but he also has the ability and willingness to let monster targets like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett make plays for big gains.
Cutler’s well-placed throws to Marshall in Week 2 and to Jeffery in crunch time on Monday night are extremely difficult to defend. He and his receivers have executed them to perfection in game-defining moments over the past few weeks.
In the play shown below, Cutler correctly assumes Rex Ryan will bring seven on an all-out blitz and leave each of Cutler’s targets in single coverage. Cutler makes this 3rd-and-9 situation look quite simple by rolling right and throwing a jump ball to where only the 6’3″ Jeffery can go up and grab it. And he did.
Meanwhile, on Green Bay’s side, Aaron Rodgers remains a great quarterback, yet was startlingly ineffective against Detroit in Week 3. The offensive line has not done a good job opening up running lanes, and it raises questions as to whether Eddie Lacy, currently averaging less than 40 yards rushing per game, can produce like he did last season.
The Bears appear to have hit free agency jackpot with their defensive line additions and Lance Briggs is making 2013 a distant memory with a great start to this season.
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Houston Texans
“Fitzmagic” can’t be said with a straight face even when he is limiting turnovers and getting heavy support from the run game. New York ran Rashad Jennings away from J.J. Watt last week to the tune of 176 yards and steamrolled Houston, putting the Texans in a trailing position for which they seemed woefully unequipped, evidenced by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s four interceptions. It’s hard to feel great about Arian Foster shaking his hamstring issues and saving the day at current time.
Buffalo is also limited by some of the poorest quarterback play in the league with E.J. Manuel under center. So the tie-breaker here becomes the offensive weapons and defense. Jim Schwartz oversees arguably the league’s most terrifying defensive line in the NFL right now—with sublime talents like Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and edge rusher Mario Williams. San Diego was determined to run but could only muster about 2 yards per carry.
Manuel seems to excel (most) when hitting Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and Sammy Watkins on short to intermediate routes with space to run through, and they could utilize this strategy to muster up enough offense to attain a low-scoring road win on Sunday.
New York Jets (+1.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Jon Gruden was critical of Geno Smith during Monday night’s two-interception performance, even though he threw for 316 yards and had a 60.5 percent completion percentage. With calls for Michael Vick raining down Tuesday morning, the Monday Night Football color commentator changed his tune a bit and stuck up for the sophomore passer.
“I’m staying with Geno Smith. I’ve seen enough good things to stay with him. He’s 23 years old” – Jon Gruden on @MikeandMike
— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) September 24, 2014
Smith deserves plenty of criticism for the big mistakes he’s made in each game. However, at this stage in his career, he probably presents a better option than the 34-year-old Michael Vick. Smith commands the league’s 18th-ranked pass offense. And he’s held a lead for most of the first two contests—despite his top three healthy targets being Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson and Jeff Cumberland. And Marty Mornhinweg’s bizarre play calls in the red zone certainly don’t help matters.
Detroit managed to grind out Green Bay to close the fourth quarter, physically breaking their will on the ground. The Jets possesses the most immovable front in Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Sheldon Richardson, ranking first in run defense. It will come down largely to a battle of wits between Rex Ryan and Matthew Stafford, who has seen his QB rating drop dramatically since an impressive opening night.
Philadelphia Eagles (+5) at San Francisco 49ers
Kirk Cousins burned Philly’s defense deep on a startling number of occasions last week. Colin Kaepernick boasts the arm talent to accomplish the same but his downfield exploits did cost San Francisco in Week 2 against Chicago, spurring nightmares of Kyle Fuller for Niners fans. Jim Harbaugh then reeled Kaepernick in a bit against the Cardinals, as his 29 completions averaged less than five yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus.
The major “X” factor is whether Kaepernick can offset a regressed run game by consistently ripping off deep chunks for all four quarters, utilizing a stacked group of aerial weapons in Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson. The passing attack has waned late in games, and that’s something they certainly need to work on if they want to turn things around.
The Eagles hold a league-best 74-24 advantage in points scored in the second halves of games this season, while the Niners rank last with a 52-3 deficit. Philly’s penchant for gaining steam and San Fran’s tendency to lose it has me leaning toward the Eagles winning straight up in Levi’s Stadium.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The last time Atlanta left the Georgia Dome to face a team with the talent to dominate in the trenches, the Falcons mustered just three points for most of a 24-3 loss in Cincy. Minnesota, guided by former Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, has the defensive unit to make things difficult on Matt Ryan and Co.
Top pick Jake Matthews sat injured in the Week 2 loss and having him protect Matt Ryan’s blindside is absolutely critical. Trotting out a healthy Roddy White is also huge, though it didn’t really matter against a depleted Bucs team on Thursday Night Football last week.
Zimmer can cook up an attack that overwhelms Atlanta up front with the young, talented group of Brian Robison, Everson Griffen, Sharrif Floyd and Linval Joseph. And top pick Anthony Barr ranks fifth in PFF’s pass-rush productivity metric at 4-3 OLB, just ahead of Von Miller. They managed to severely limit Sean Payton’s offense in New Orleans’ home opener—a rather impressive feat.
This contest could go right down to the wire. It will give us a chance to see what kind of poise Teddy Bridgewater shows in his first regular season start in the NFL—replacing the league’s lowest-rated passer in Matt Cassel.
