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How each remaining NFL team can make a Super Bowl run

Posted by on Jan 8, 2015 02:59

The 2001 Patriots, 2007 Giants and 2012 Ravens were dark horses when they entered the divisional round in their respective seasons. Those blazing paths to glory all seem predictable in retrospect, as do the favorites that have pulled through over the years.

Let’s take a look at each remaining team, specifically the scenario in which each can make a Super Bowl run.

New England Patriots

No Patriots fan wants to think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady hit their ceiling in the  years leading up to 2007. New England rattled off three Super Bowl title wins between 2001 and 2004 before embarking on a 10-season streak of playoff berths (minus the Matt Cassel year), yet have “just” three AFC championship losses and two Super Bowl heartbreaks to show for it.

The pedigree is there for another run to February and Bovada sensibly lists them as AFC favorites at 10-to-11 odds. Josh McDaniels-led offenses have been the franchise’s most potent and the defense is as stout as it’s been in years. Darrelle Revis gives Belichick a “take your weapon away” component.

Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins complement this unit as versatile three-down backers. The Ravens and Colts were forced by injury to move their best guard outside. Belichick can exploit these line shuffles with A-gap confusion and penetration. If we get another Brady-Manning AFC title, Peyton will be challenged underneath in the short-to-intermediate game and on C.J. Anderson dump offs. The Super Bowl hump looms as large as ever.

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore has become a trendy underdog this weekend, instantly bet down from a 7.5- to 7-point dog Sunday night in Las Vegas. They have all the makings of the ideal sleeper pick. The problem is Baltimore now plays New England, who despite losing two home playoff games to Baltimore since 2009, do present more matchup problems to the Ravens than in the past. Not to mention the Pats were head-and-shoulders above the AFC this year in regular season play. Still, we know the Ravens are up for any road upset when Joe Flacco’s red-hot, which happens to be the case now.

The Ravens’ No. 3 run defense is well-equipped to force teams into third-and-long. Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee and Timmy Jernigan (questionable to play) each rank top-10 at their respective position in pass-rush productivity by Pro Football Focus. Haloti Ngata recorded a sack and four QB hurries in his return last week, and Terrell Suggs remains integral in every down-and-distance situation.

In obvious pass situations, Baltimore can mitigate their flawed secondary with a peaking pass rush. Just ask the 2007 Giants. Lardarius Webb has gradually improved since coming off two seasons lost to injury, while the late-season emergence of young players like Will Hill and Rashaan Melvin has been critical.

Carolina Panthers

Well, this is bad.


Star Lotulelei has wreaked interior havoc and this made life easier for Charles Johnson along with linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. Carolina’s ability to throw a nickel at teams with two otherworldly LBs gives them a unique advantage that particularly frustrates the Seahawks offense. The loss of Lotulelei puts a little more focus on everyone else in the front-seven.

More importantly, Carolina needs more of the “good” Cam Newton—an acceptable accuracy percentage of 70.7 percent since returning from a car accident Week 16—and less of the one beforehand who ranked 27th among 28 qualifying passers in accuracy percentage at 66.5.

The mistakes against Arizona can not happen again. Given how many balls his receivers dropped—four on Saturday—those 3-5 off-target passes will bury them in Seattle. That and straying from the offensive recipe: Lean on Jonathan Stewart and Newton’s legs; Rely on passing targets not named Greg Olsen as little as possible; Don’t fall behind.

Seattle Seahawks

Envision Marshawn Lynch rumbling up the middle and breaking wills over four quarters, while Russell Wilson hits deep a couple times after scrambling. And the Seahawks’ defense being the Seahawks’ defense. This has not been stopped since the divisional round two years ago.


Sure, Seattle has lost seven regular season games in two years and endured an injury-fueled struggle early this fall, but the now-full strength Hawks have won their last six games in dominant fashion. A healthy Kam Chancellor, Byron Maxwell and Bobby Wagner makes a colossal difference.

Pete Carroll’s squad hasn’t shown any fatal flaw in their bid to repeat. It should take a season-best performance from any comer to knock off the crown.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys can shorten any game and brawl with any team in the offensive trenches—perfect for miserable outdoor conditions in Green Bay and Seattle. Dallas ranks top-five in average time of possession and first in time between snaps, as the New York Times‘ Chase Stuart noted.

Rod Marinelli has done wonders with a defense that lacks quality depth, but they can’t be left on the field too long. See: Thanksgiving vs. Chip Kelly. Linebackers Rolando McClain (concussion, neck) and Anthony Hitchens (ankle) sat out Wednesday’s practice and the Cowboys will need them to aid their already-thin LB corps. McClain was limited to just 20 snaps in the win over Detroit but is needed to slow Eddie Lacy. Fellow backer Bruce Carter has re-emerged as a crucial element in Dallas’ pass defense.

Green Bay Packers

Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers have fared well against Cover-2 concepts similar to what Dallas figures to employ. They also master the art of using two great route-runners, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, to challenge defenses between the hashes and up the seam.

Throw in budding tight end Richard Rodgers, the versatility of Lacy and (what looks to be) a young James Jones in rookie Davante Adams. Green Bay can challenge opposing defenses at every inch of the field in a way no other team matches. Green Bay is now also stronger in the trenches, ranking first in PFF pass-block grading. It’s helped them find balance, opening up holes for the league’s 11th-ranked run attack.

The addition of Julius Peppers to the front-seven has paid major dividends and the Packers have not allowed a rusher to hit 100 yards since the Week 9 bye. This is probably the most well-rounded Packers squad since the 2010-2011 Super Bowl run.

Denver Broncos

The play of Peyton Manning down the stretch is concerning but one would hope the first-round bye will do the Broncos a lot of good. All 53 players on the active roster practiced for the first time since Oct. 3. Manning boasts not only the best WR/TE trio of his career in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas, but also by far the best supporting defense thanks to a free-agency spending spree.


Last year’s injury-hampered, Von Miller-suspended defense sputtered to 15th in FO’s defensive efficiency ratings compared to No. 4 this year, behind only Seattle, Buffalo and Detroit. C.J. Anderson gives Peyton his best running back in a Broncos uniform.

If the extra week of rest returns Manning to midseason form then the Broncos don’t deserve to be more than three-point underdogs against anyone—especially the Colts. Just go back and watch what Chris Harris Jr. did to T.Y. Hilton in a game Denver thoroughly dominated in Week 1, outside of handing the ball off to Montee Ball.

Indianapolis Colts

The scary-good Andrew Luck showed up for all four quarters against the Bengals’ pass rush. When Cincy did blitz, it still couldn’t get there quick enough and Luck torched the secondary. Luck’s average time to attempt a pass (2.81 seconds) stood well ahead of the pack in wild-card weekend—followed by Joe Flacco (2.71) and Tony Romo (2.7).

The usual mind-blowing throws were there without the forced attempts that have cost Indy at times this season. Luck can’t give opposing defenses three touchdowns in two weeks as he did against Cleveland and Houston a month ago. Indy still won those games, which is a testament to the steadily-improving defense under Chuck Pagano.


Indy also boasts a sneaky advantage in special teams as displayed in stellar wild-card performances by first-team All-Pros Adam Vinatieri and Pat McAfee, heading a top-10 unit. This oft-overlooked phase of the game has been underrated in the past but has been the “x factor'” for past championship teams. Think about the 2001 Patriots with Adam Vinatieri and Troy Brown, and the 2012 Ravens with Justin Tucker and Jacoby Jones. Teams win games by making kicks and creating turning points with boosts from special teams.

About Thomas Emerick

Merry freelancer. NFL Lead Writer at The Sports Daily, Contributor to Sporting News. May have also seen my work at USA Today, Bleacher Report, Pro Football Focus and the late AOL FanHouse. VT grad. I am also an avid diabetic.

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