Week 3 approaches and the past two feel like one big whirlwind. It’s tough to make definitive statements about most teams at this point, but there are plenty of known quantities when it comes to individual players or groups set to clash this Sunday and Monday.
Let’s break down each upcoming game on the Week 3 slate.
Detroit (favored by 2) vs. Green Bay: RB Eddie Lacy vs. Lions front-seven
Lacy’s 25 rushing attempts tie for 20th in the league with the likes of Chris Johnson, Toby Gerhart, Joique Bell and Knowshon Moreno, and Moreno played only two snaps in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have fallen behind early, so Lacy’s lack of use is somewhat logical.
However, if the first two weeks are any indication, the Packers’ D needs a run game that can keep them off the field more, and Green Bay ranks 24th in time of possession entering Week 3. The Packers possess the ideal weapon to combat this in Lacy, who finished sixth in yards after contact last season and capped it by forcing six missed tackles against San Fran in the wild-card round.
Buffalo favored by 2.5 vs. San Diego: WR Keenan Allen vs. Bills secondary
Allen hasn’t maintained last year’s pace in part thanks to a couple brutal matchups to start the year, and in the coming weeks the sophomore receiver will obliterate his current average of 46 receiving yards per game. Even if Rivers is undergoing quick pressure from Kyle Williams and Co., Allen knows out to create space right off the line.
Converted third down. MT @LobShots: Here’s Keenan Allen vs. Richard Sherman https://t.co/j564He2adp
— Michael Gehlken (@UTgehlken) September 14, 2014
However, a Bills secondary that was expected to take a huge step back sans Jairus Byrd now looks its best in several years. Corey Graham proved an underrated addition, Stephon Gilmore continues to develop and the safety tandem of Aaron Williams and Da’Norris Searcy is making fans forget Byrd.
Allen’s 15 targets rank a modest 23rd in the league and I’d bet Mike McCoy and his QB want to get him on track.
Carolina (favored by 3.5) vs. Pittsburgh: RB Le’Veon Bell vs. Panthers LBs
The Steelers severely disappointed on Thursday night against the Ravens but one bright spot shined through the 6-point performance: Le’Veon Bell. Bell also made the most of his touches four days prior against Cleveland, leading the NFL in forced missed tackles Week 1. Bell dropped 20 pounds this offseason and complements a devastating level of shiftiness — a notch just below LeSean McCoy in that regard — with enough speed to trouble defenders at the second level. Bleacher Report’s Chris Gazze notes that the Steelers are 6-0 when they feed Bell at least 20 carries.
Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis will monitor him both with the ball and out of the backfield and are perhaps the best duo in the league for such a task. Outside of a broken tackle against Lions fullback Jed Collins at the goal line, Kuechly has elevated his play from the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year campaign.
Seattle (favored by 5) vs. Denver: S Kam Chancellor vs. Broncos short and intermediate routes
We all know Peyton loves his short crossers. And that Chancellor loves to crash them.
Kam Chancellor hits Demaryius Thomas #superBam #whyIloveBamBam http://t.co/VkADCe6rxD
— Chanos (@cbolakewood) August 19, 2014
The Super Bowl was a definitive win for the should’ve-been game MVP wearing No. 31. Chancellor and the Hawks D will look to bounce back with anger after Rivers had his way in the short-to-intermediate range this past Sunday.
Cincinnati (favored by 7) vs. Tennessee: DL Jurrell Casey vs. Bengals’ OL
Fresh off letting Dallas run the ball down their throats to the tune of 43-for-220, Tennessee faces a Cincy squad that just pounded 45 carries for 170 yards in Week 2. These are very high attempt totals in today’s NFL, but Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is happy to carry on if his team mounts a lead and the Titans can’t stop it.
Tennessee’ front-seven has responded relatively well for the most part under defensive coordinator Ray Horton, but their chances of holding up practically vanish when Casey, one of the league’s most dangerous and versatile lineman, isn’t finding his way into the backfield. He is the rudder. Casey’s Pro Football Focus 34 DE grade currently ties him for second with JJ Watt, though he’ll feature in different avenues of attack.
Ray Horton stood Jurrell Casey up on the left side on third down. Result? Romo sack. Great combo of coaching and elite player.
— SI_DougFarrar (@SI_DougFarrar) September 14, 2014
New Orleans (favored by 10.5) vs. Minnesota: Rob Ryan’s D vs. Cordarrelle Patterson
The Saints struggled with Andrew Hawkins last week and Patterson offers an amplified version, plus a greater threat on deep routes and from the backfield. Kenny Vaccaro rebounding from a slow start is key to slowing Patterson in this AP-less Vikes attack.
Baltimore (favored by 1.5) @ Cleveland: TE Dennis Pitta vs. Browns LBs/DBs
This matchup could be as much about Ravens OC Gary Kubiak vs. Browns Coach Mike Pettine. In Week 2, Sean Payton found ways to repeatedly match Jimmy Graham against LBs Karlos Dansby and Chris Kirksey along with 5-11 CB Joe Haden and 5-9 Buster Skrine, for all of Graham’s 10 catches, 118 yards and two scores. Enter Pitta.
Houston (favored by 2.5) @ NY Giants: JJ Watt vs. Giants OL
Watt can cause havoc anywhere and Romeo Crennel would be wise to utilize him plenty between Giants LT Will Beatty and rookie LG Weston Richburg.
Weston Richburg said that going up against good defensive linemen in practice is helping him prepare for Watt.
— GiantInsider (@GiantInsider) September 18, 2014
Words don’t really describe that sinking feeling, so this will have to do….
To be fair, every Giants fan has been making this same face for about the last 20 minutes. pic.twitter.com/7ReybWojDr
— Jesse Spector (@jessespector) September 14, 2014
San Francisco (favored by 3) @ Arizona: WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. DB Jimmie Ward
Fitzgerald has run 66 routes out of the slot this year and the Bears’ Brandon Marshall, a veteran receiver of similar stature and ball skills, gave the Niners rookie fits out of this alignment on Sunday night.
Dallas (favored by 1) @ St. Louis: DE Robert Quinn vs. LT Tyron Smith
Smith is one of the league’s most athletic and well-equipped left tackles for the modern edge rusher, and held up well enough against the sack title-holder last season.
Robert Quinn was a beast last night, has been for much of the season..He had four tackles and no sacks against Tyron Smith and Cowboys, FYI
— Clarence Hill (@clarencehilljr) October 29, 2013
Philadelphia (favored by 6.5) vs. Washington: RBs in pass game vs. Redskins LBs/DBs
The Redskins start ILBs ranked 14th and 41st at their position in PFF coverage grading. They did cut Bacarri Rambo (68th PFF coverage grade among safeties) and welcome back Brandon Meriweather (63rd last season) from suspension, so their prospects of containing LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles out of the backfield go from “screwed” to “still probably not well.”
Indianapolis (favored by 7) @ Jacksonville: Pep Hamilton vs. Himself
Offensive play-calling on the Colts’ final two drives Monday night was….interesting. Up seven and well within FG range late in the fourth quarter, the Colts dialed up a pass that was intercepted when TY Hilton fell/was arguably held. Then tied with under five minutes in their own end, Indy decides it’s now a good time to take the ball back out of Andrew Luck’s hands, running inside on first and second down to little gain. They lost would lose, and it would be painful.
On fateful third-and-9 call that led to INT, #Colts‘ Pep Hamilton says, in hindsight, he would have liked to have called a better play.
— Phillip B Wilson (@pwilson24) September 18, 2014
New England (favored by 14.5) vs. Oakland: DE/OLB Chandler Jones vs. LT Donald Penn
The Pats moved Jones from 5-technique Week 1 to a more OLB edge-rush role Week 2, resulting in two sacks and five hurries. Over in Oakland, Penn gave up just one QB pressure against Houston that day.
Miami (favored by 4) vs. Kansas City: TE Travis Kelce vs. Dolphins LBs/DBs
The loss of Jamaal Charles means Andy Reid should keep cranking up the Kelce targets.
Tight end with the most yards per route run so far? Niles Paul with 3.85, just ahead of Travis Kelce (3.82) and Julius Thomas (3.31).
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) September 16, 2014
New York Jets (favored by 3) vs. Chicago: Bears WR duo vs. Jets maligned CBs
I believe Dee Milliner will prove a huge boost when healthier and that Darrin Walls, Antonio Allen and Kyle Wilson have not been quite the disaster many expected. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery will line up from a variety of spots split out, giving this unit it’s second brutal test in a row.
[All lines via FootballLOCKS unless otherwise mentioned.]
