An NFL draft bust, especially one in the early rounds, can really set a franchise back and cost team personnel their jobs.
Scouts, coaches and general managers do all they can to avoid drafting a potential bust. They crunch numbers from the Scouting Combine. They travel to see prospects work out at their pro days. They bring many of them into their facilities to get a closer look.
No matter how much homework is done, however, luck can’t be completely removed from the art of drafting. Each draft will include at least one player who falls far short of expectations and doesn’t last long in the NFL.
These six players in the 2014 NFL draft class—all of whom likely to be taken in the first or second rounds—are the most likely candidates to be branded with bust labels.
Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
(Sr., 6’6″, 310 pounds)
Ra’Shede Hageman is more of a physical specimen than a proven talent.
He’s likely to be drafted late in the first round or early in the second round for his length and versatility which allow him to play anywhere on the defensive line, but his tape shows he lacks the ability to consistently produce big, game-changing plays.
Blockers not only can neutralize Hageman, they often can turn and steer him. Hageman might bust through the line of scrimmage and make a tackle for negative yardage from time to time, but the rest of the time he disappears.
Hageman had only 10 sacks and two forced fumbles in four years at Minnesota. He had six sacks as a junior, but followed that up with two last season. He made a career-best 13 tackles for loss in 2013, but that was only 10th in the Big Ten. He still has a lot of room for improvement if he wants to succeed at the next level.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
(So., 6’0″, 207 pounds)
In this so-so quarterback class, at least one player among the Big Three of Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater, is likely going to be a bust.
Manziel carries the highest bust potential of the three.
The holes in Manziel’s game can be fixed. He actually has the intangibles to be a winner. The biggest problem with Manziel is that he’s already tasted the celebrity lifestyle, and he might not be hungry enough to do the dirty work it takes to succeed in the NFL.
Manziel’s climb to stardom parallels that of fellow Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, even if Tebow was famous for different reasons. The former Florida quarterback ultimately didn’t make it in the NFL, and he walked the straight and narrow.
The same can’t be said for Manziel.
Because he lacks ideal size for an NFL quarterback, Manziel will have to work harder than most other quarterbacks at the next level. Johnny Football will need to become Johnny Playbook.
Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
(Sr., 5’11”, 199 pounds)
If Darqueze Dennard stays healthy, he likely won’t be a bust.
But that’s a big if.
Dennard is almost certain to be drafted somewhere in the first round, and he could be the first cornerback taken off the board. He won the 2013 Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back, intercepting four passes and breaking up 10. Dennard picked off three passes and broke up 10 in 2012.
However, Dennard has a lengthy medical history. He’s had knee, ankle and shoulder injuries at one time or another, and he played most of his junior season with a sports hernia that needed surgical repair last spring. He also skipped the broad jump and the vertical leap at the Scouting Combine because of a hamstring injury, although he performed both tests at his pro day, according to NFL Draft Scout.
Dennard’s technique could get him flagged for pass interference at the next level, but that’s more correctable than his durability. If he can’t stay on the field in the pros, he’ll be a bust even if he possesses an NFL-level skill set.
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
(Jr., 6’4″, 273 pounds)
Michael Sam, Kony Ealy’s teammate, is the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
On the surface, then, it would seem that Ealy isn’t as good as a player who’s projected to fall into the middle rounds. But there is deeper evidence of his bust potential.
Although he was fifth in the SEC in 2013 with eight sacks and third with 14 tackles for loss, Ealy was knocked to the ground a lot by blockers and swallowed up too easily when he was double-teamed. He also has to improve against the run.
Ealy is expected to be drafted in the second round. He would be chosen more for his upside than what he’s shown so far. Because he, too, has a lot of room for improvement, as far as his technique is concerned.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson
(Jr., 6’4″, 211 pounds)
Martavis Bryant wore No. 1 at Clemson while teammate Sammy Watkins wore No. 2.
The equipment manager got it backwards.
Watkins, projected to be drafted in the top five, was the Tigers’ go-to receiver. Bryant was second on the team with 42 receptions. He’s never been the primary target in college and will struggle if he goes to a team where too much is expected of him right away. That could be the case if he’s taken in the second round, as expected.
Even though he’s a decent blocker, Bryant needs to bulk up to withstand the NFL grind. Not only does his body need beefing up, his body of work is thin as well. He caught just 61 passes in three years at Clemson. Even if he caught all those passes in 2013, it wouldn’t get him anywhere near the top 20 in the nation.
Bryant dropped four passes against Georgia this past season and makes too many body catches. If he doesn’t improve his hands and his catching technique, he’ll flame out in the NFL.
Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado
(Jr., 6’0″, 175 pounds)
Paul Richardson has been moving up a lot of draft boards and is projected to be drafted in the second or third rounds.
He finished second in the Pac-12 with 83 receptions and 1,343 receiving yards and is a solid home-run threat. He ran a 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine. If football were gymnastics, he’d get degree-of-difficulty points for some of his catches.
The problem with Richardson is that he doesn’t win enough one-on-one battles with defensive backs. He missed the 2012 season with a torn ACL and needs more meat on his bones to stay healthy and become a useful blocker in the NFL.
