Storylines such as Pete Carroll vs. Bill Belichick will likely garner most of the headlines leading up to Super Bowl XLIX, but this year’s title game will likely be determined by whether or not the Seattle Seahawks can shut down—or at least contain—New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Gronkowski has been a superstar since he first entered the league in 2010, but his impact on the Patriots’ offense has never been more pronounced than it has been this year. His team’s success has correlated with his health and availability.
Back to full health in 2014, Gronkowski caught 82 passes for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games to earn All-Pro honors from the PFWA.
— Pro Football Writers (@PFWAwriters) January 16, 2015
After all, the Patriots did not get off to a slow start to the 2014 season because quarterback Tom Brady suddenly aged 10 years, or because Belichick lost his ability to coach. They simply were without their most dangerous offensive threat, and looked like an average team because of it.
Since Gronkowski has returned to full health, few teams can even say they have been able to compete with the AFC champions—losers of just two games since their 2-2 start. After starting the season on a bad note, Brady has attained a 111.7 passer rating since October. Stopping the Patriots’ offense is difficult, but it starts and ends with limiting Gronkowski. Luckily for the Seahawks, they happen to have 6’3″, 232-pound safety Kam Chancellor in their defensive backfield.
Chancellor has shut down opposing tight ends throughout the season, regardless of where they line up. Just two weeks ago, the Seahawks held Greg Olsen—a 1,000-yard receiving tight end on the season—to a mere 58 yards in their wild-card win. At times, Chancellor lined up directly over Olsen in man-to-man coverage, playing more like a linebacker than a defensive back. 
When the Panthers tried to get cute and move Olsen around the formation—in the backfield in this particular instance—the Seahawks held their ground and kept Chancellor in coverage, following the tight end into the flat after the snap without showing their hand of man coverage. 
When the ball was snapped, Chancellor was able to find Olsen and cover him in the flat—taking away Cam Newton’s safety valve to force the incompletion. And while Olsen is not even in the same stratosphere as Gronkowski in terms of physical ability, the fact remains that there are few players in the league that can handle Chancellor’s physicality. Most fullbacks would relish the opportunity to take on a defensive back in the hole—as long as said DB isn’t Chancellor.
Chancellor is not just a hard hitter—he can run and explode off the ball as quickly as a cornerback 40 pounds lighter than he is.
He will be most valuable in Super Bowl XLIX in the red zone, where size and strength are magnified. The Indianapolis Colts had no answer for Gronkowski in the AFC Championship game, especially when he was split out wide in this area of the field.
Chancellor is one of the few players in the NFL that can match Gronkowski’s relative strength, which will allow him to play Gronk up near the line of scrimmage when they match up. Gronkowski may be able to outmuscle a 190-pound cornerback, but few athletes can toss around Chancellor with such ease.
The impending matchup features an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object, and something has to give. As dominant as Gronkowski is as a player, he has been contained before by lesser safeties. Just last season, New York Jets safety Antonio Allen was able to keep Gronkowski in check—mostly on his own—even coming away with a pick-six in the process.
Having Chancellor at their disposal gives the Seahawks a chance to stop Gronkowski, but whether or not they can keep him at bay throughout the game will depend on how well coverage elsewhere holds up. After all, the Seahawks will be making a schematic compromise by keeping Chancellor in coverage against one player, as good as he is.
If Chancellor focuses on covering Gronkowski, free safety Earl Thomas will be forced to play a lot of Cover 1 as a result. Thomas usually excels in deep coverage, but it remains to be seen just how much a separated shoulder will affect his play. If the Seahawks elect to give Thomas extra help by dropping Chancellor back into more traditional two-deep coverage concepts, then Brady will likely exploit it by utilizing Gronk.
Generating interior pressure would make life more difficult on Brady (just as it would for any quarterback), but the Seahawks cannot enter the Super Bowl simply banking on their defensive front having a productive day.
The Patriots have not run into a team more equipped to deal with the most dangerous playmaker in their offense this season. If the Seahawks can overcome their injury woes and play up to their potential on defense, they stand a good chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
