With just over two-thirds of the 2016 MLB season in the books, we now have a better understanding of which teams will be in the playoff picture heading into September.
However, some of these teams that appear to be legitimate contenders are simply illusions, with their glaring weaknesses likely to be exposed down the stretch. Here are the clubs that are for real, along with the ones that will soon fade away.
Contenders
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays’ run to the 2015 AL East title (and subsequent trip to the ALCS) was built on a strong offense — led by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and MVP Josh Donaldson. Fast forward a year, and the hitting is still pretty solid. However, it’s the pitching — boasting the best staff ERA in the American League — that deserves the attention as Toronto ascends into first once again. J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez collectively have 28 victories, with Marco Estrada leading all starters with a 1.04 WHIP and 8.49 strikeouts per nine innings.
Detroit Tigers
Despite a recent string of losses, the Tigers are hanging with the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central race. It wasn’t long ago when manager Brad Ausmus’ job was in serious jeopardy. But when Detroit heated up to the tune of eight straight victories from July 25 to August 3, his seat has gotten significantly cooler. The Justin Verlander of the present looks much like the Verlander of old: 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA since the All-Star break. Another familiar face coming into form is Miguel Cabrera, who has raised his batting average to .310 and his home run total to 26.
St. Louis Cardinals
For a perennial World Series threat, the Cards have flown under the radar. A good reason is because the dominant Chicago Cubs have left the NL Central competition — including St. Louis and the Pittsburgh Pirates — in the dust. Once again, this lineup veterans and newcomers is fourth in runs scored and seventh in on-base percentage. Sunday’s eleventh-hour victory at Wrigley Field showcased the resourcefulness the Cardinals are capable of going forward.
Los Angeles Dodgers
No Clayton Kershaw, no problem? It’s hard to believe that a team without its most valuable contributor and dominant ace can not only remain in the NL West race, but close the gap for first. Of course, the Giants — with the worst second half record — are strongly responsible for forging the Dodgers’ confidence. Corey Seager is a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year (.310, 21 HRs, 140 hits), while the pitching staff maintains the fourth-best team ERA. The Dodgers haven’t ruled out a Kershaw return. If that happens, L.A.’s optimistic thoughts only get stronger.
Pretenders
Miami Marlins
Sometimes a team’s staying power in the playoff race is determined by uncontrollable forces. Don Mattingly’s first year in Miami is a success — better than anyone anticipated. Jose Fernandez is among the league’s best starters (2.81 ERA, 198 strikeouts). Martin Prado (.321 batting average) and Christian Yelich (.387 OBP) are enjoying fine seasons at the plate. All that said, Giancarlo Stanton’s presence in the lineup is essential if the Marlins want to be playing through the end of the regular season. And since he’ll miss the rest of it, Miami’s chances have taken a major hit.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Contrary to where this franchise stood from 1993-2012, the Bucs are now expected to be a playoff team on a regular basis. The hopes for a fourth consecutive postseason berth are in doubt due to their difficulty to consistent produce runs. Pittsburgh is fifth from the bottom in terms of homers, 18th in OPS, and 19th in runs scored. Pirate relievers are among the best in the National League. But after closer Mark Melancon departed for Washington at the trade deadline, who knows if the Pirates will be able to close games effectively.
Houston Astros
Houston ended June with 12 victories in 14 games to get back up above .500 — erasing a dreadful start to the 2016 campaign. The gap between themselves and the AL West-leading Texas Rangers got as close as 2.5 on July 27 only to go up to 7.5 at the start of play on Sunday. With the Rangers adding Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline, the task for the Astros to win the division became more daunting. Even the likes of MVP candidate Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa can’t completely reform a batting order that’s hitting .246.
New York Yankees
The trading of veterans Carlos Beltran, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman gave everyone a clear indication that the Yankees were mortgaging present talent for future success. But following a successful last week — including series victories over the Indians and Red Sox — there’s now a fantasy among New York fans that this team can jump the four teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings and sneak its way into the postseason anyway. Here’s a reality check: they won’t.
