Just three teams have survived the first four weeks of the 2016 NFL season without a loss: the Denver Broncos (4-0), Minnesota Vikings (4-0) and Philadelphia Eagles (3-0).
Who is the best of the unbeaten?
Looking at a few of the most important team metrics could help provide an answer.
Point Differential
Nothing is more fundamentally important to winning games than scoring points and preventing your opponent from scoring. Combine the two, and you get a nice little statistic known as point differential. You might be surprised by which team is leading the metric after four games. It’s not the Vikings, who—despite giving up only 50 points—have a differential of plus-38. And it’s not the Broncos, who are plus-47.
With three blowouts in three games, the Eagles are pacing the NFL in point differential at plus-65. Philadelphia followed up double-digit wins over the Browns and Bears to start the season with a 31-point shellacking of the Steelers in Week 3. The Eagles became just the 11th team since 1990 to begin a season with three-straight wins of at least 14 points.
Advantage: Eagles
Turnover Margin
The Eagles still don’t have a turnover in 2016, largely thanks to the mature play of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. But Philadelphia still doesn’t possess the league’s best turnover margin. That title goes to the Vikings, who have 11 takeaways and just one turnover over the first four games.
Minnesota has six interceptions and five defensive fumble recoveries, and the team’s only turnover came when safety Andrew Sendejo lost a fumble shortly after recovering a fumble against the Packers. While much has been made about the turnover-free start for Wentz, Vikings quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill have thrown 128 passes without an interception in 2016.
The Eagles are plus-6 in turnovers, while the Broncos—who have eight takeaways and five giveaways—are plus-3.
Advantage: Vikings
Passer Rating Differential
There’s more to winning a football game than just winning the quarterback battle, but few stats better predict wins and losses than passer rating differential. The premise is simple: Play quarterback efficiently and disrupt the opposing quarterback, and you have a good chance of winning a game.
All three undefeated teams have been very good in passer rating differential to start 2016. The Vikings are actually the worst of the three teams at plus-30.6 (Minnesota: 98.3, opponents: 67.7), although they’d be first if only counting Sam Bradford’s 105.5 passer rating. Somewhat surprisingly, the Broncos are second at plus-37.2 (98.5, 61.3)—leaving the Eagles at No. 1. Philadelphia has a plus-37.7 mark, which is aided by Carson Wentz’s 103.8 passer rating and a defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass.
Advantage: Eagles
Verdict
The Eagles have the obvious advantage of only playing three games, which provides a smaller sample size to work with. But the numbers still provide a compelling argument for Philadelphia’s claim to being the NFL’s top undefeated team. The Eagles have three wins by an average of 21.7 points, an offense that hasn’t committed a turnover and the league’s best passer rating differential. All three teams are very close in the most important numbers, but for now, Philadelphia appears to have the slightest edge over Minnesota and Denver after four weeks.
