The regular season will come to a close this weekend, and life for teams on the bubble is very fragile. Key developments this week within mid-major conferences have shrunk the number of bubble spots, and at this point in the season, one game can make or break a team’s NCAA hopes.
Teams in all caps are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 25 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just 11 spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Thursday, March 5. Our next projection will be between the end of the regular season and the start of major conference tournaments.
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Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field, or any projected conference champion with a top-100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams currently not even on the bubble, or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
Projected conference champions in CAPS
ACC
There were no changes this week with the ACC bubble.
Solidly In: VIRGINIA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville
On the Bubble:
Miami (19-11, 9-8 ACC)
RPI: 65
Key Wins: Duke
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: In. After losing to North Carolina, Miami picked up a big road win over fellow ACC bubble team, Pittsburgh. Miami’s 16-point win at Duke is one of the best for any of the teams currently on the bubble. The Hurricanes are currently the last team in.
N.C. State (18-12, 9-8 ACC)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
Bad Losses: Wake Forest, Clemson, Boston College
As of Now: In. The Wolfpack suffered a bad loss to Boston College this past week, but have a respectable RPI and four really good victories.
Pittsburgh (19-12, 8-9 ACC)
RPI: 60
Key Wins: North Carolina, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Hawaii, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest
As of Now: Out. With the season on the line, the Panthers laid an egg this week.
AAC
There were no changes this week in the bubble in the AAC.
Solidly In: SMU
On the Bubble:
Cincinnati (21-9, 12-5 AAC)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: San Diego State, SMU (twice)
Bad Losses: Nebraska, East Carolina, Tulane
As of Now: In. The Bearcats seem pretty safe at this point.
Connecticut (17-12, 10-7 AAC)
RPI: 76
Key Wins: Dayton, SMU
Bad Losses: Yale, Houston
As of Now: Out. UCONN followed up a big victory with a home loss to Memphis it could not afford.
Memphis (18-12, 10-7 AAC)
RPI: 80
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Tulane, East Carolina
As of Now: Out. The Tigers still lack a quality win.
Temple (21-9, 12-5 AAC)
RPI: 37
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Kansas
Bad Losses: St. Joe’s, UNLV
As of Now: In. Like Cincinnati, Temple should feel pretty good about itself.
Tulsa (21-8, 14-3 AAC)
RPI: 47
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: Out. Tulsa’s horrible non-conference losses and its lack of a signature win are still too much to overcome at this time.
Atlantic 10
Davidson moves from the bubble to the projected A-10 champion. Dayton falls from the projected A-10 champion to solidly in.
Solidly In: DAVIDSON, Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Bubble:
George Washington (19-11, 9-8 A-10)
RPI: 84
Key Wins: Wichita State, Dayton
Bad Losses: La Salle, Duquesne
As of Now: Out. A low RPI and mediocre record have the Colonials thinking NIT.
UMASS (17-13, 10-7 A-10)
RPI: 72
Key Wins: Northeastern, Dayton
Bad Losses: St. Joseph’s (twice), St. Bonaventure
As of Now: Out. UMASS needs to do major damage in the A-10 tournament to get an at-large bid.
Rhode Island (20-8, 12-5 A-10)
RPI: 68
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. The Rams still have plenty of work to do.
Richmond (18-12, 11-6 A-10)
RPI: 54
Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth (twice), Davidson
Bad Losses: James Madison, Wake Forest, George Mason
As of Now: Out. Richmond has work to do, but looks like a dangerous team in the A-10 tournament.
Big 12
TCU falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: KANSAS, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor
On the Bubble:
Texas (18-12, 7-10 Big 12)
RPI: 43
Key Wins: West Virginia, Baylor
Bad Losses: None
As of Now: In. Texas picked up a big overtime win this week against Baylor and still has yet to suffer a bad loss.
Big East
St. John’s moves from the bubble to solidly in.
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s
On the Bubble:
VILLANOVA, PA – JANUARY 14: Josh Hart #3 of the Villanova Wildcats shoots a fade away jump shot over Trevon Bluiett #5 of the Xavier Musketeers at The Pavilion on January 14, 2015 in Villanova, Pennsylvania. Villanova won 88-75. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
Xavier (18-12, 8-9 Big East)
RPI: 42
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Providence, Murray State, Butler
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Auburn, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. Despite five bad losses, Xavier has five quality wins and a better RPI than some on the bubble.
Big Ten
Indiana falls from solidly in to the bubble. Iowa moves from the bubble to solidly in.
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue
On the Bubble:
Illinois (19-11, 9-8 Big Ten)
RPI: 58
Key Wins: Baylor, Maryland, Michigan State
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska
As of Now: In. The Fighting Illini have a winning record and more good wins than bad losses in arguably the deepest conference in America.
Indiana (19-11, 9-8 Big Ten)
RPI: 53
Key Wins: SMU, Butler, Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses: Northwestern
As of Now: In. A win over Michigan State on Saturday and the Hoosiers will be in the tournament.
Minnesota (17-13, 6-11 Big Ten)
RPI: 81
Key Wins: Michigan State, Iowa
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern
As of Now: Out. Minnesota’s RPI and bad losses are currently working against it.
Mountain West
Boise State moves from the bubble to the projected Mountain West champion. San Diego State falls from the projected Mountain West champion to solidly in.
Solidly In: BOISE STATE, San Diego State, Colorado State
On the Bubble:
Wyoming (22-8, 11-6 MW)
RPI: 90
Key Wins: Colorado State (twice)
Bad Losses: Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV
As of Now: Out. Wyoming needs to reach at least the conference tournament final to have a real shot at landing an at-large bid.
Pac-12
Oregon moves from the bubble to solidly in. Oregon State falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah, Oregon
On the Bubble:
Stanford (18-11, 9-8 Pac-12)
RPI: 64
Key Wins: Wofford
Bad Losses: DePaul, Washington State, Colorado, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. The Cardinal are in a free-fall.
UCLA (19-12, 11-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 51
Key Wins: Utah, Oregon
Bad Losses: Alabama, Colorado, Arizona State, California
As of Now: Out. The Bruins are the first team out. UCLA has more bad losses than good wins, but could get in by making just a little bit of noise in the Pac-12 tourney.
SEC
Ole Miss falls from solidly in to the bubble. Alabama falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas
On the Bubble:
Georgia (19-10, 10-7 SEC)
RPI: 35
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice), Auburn
As of Now: Out. Despite playing Kentucky tough and a stellar RPI, Georgia lacks signature wins and a NCAA resume.
LSU (21-9, 10-7 SEC)
RPI: 56
Key Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn, Clemson, Tennessee
As of Now: Out. LSU’s 15-point home loss to Tennessee could wind up being an absolute killer.
LEXINGTON, KY – JANUARY 6: Stefan Moody #42 of the Mississippi Rebels reacts after cramping up in the second half of the game against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on January 6, 2015 in Lexington, Kentucky. Kentucky defeated Mississippi 89-86 in overtime. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Ole Miss (20-10, 11-6 SEC)
RPI: 44
Key Wins: Oregon, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Charleston Southern, TCU, Western Kentucky
As of Now: In. Ole Miss may have fallen to the bubble, but the Rebels have two very good road wins and a respectable RPI.
Texas A&M (20-9, 11-6 SEC)
RPI: 46
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Kansas State, Florida, Alabama
As of Now: Out. This week’s loss to Florida served as a big hit to the Aggies’ NCAA hopes.
Others
Wichita State moves from solidly in to the projected Missouri Valley Conference champion. Northern Iowa falls from the projected Missouri Valley Conference champion to solidly in.
Solidly In: Northern Iowa
On the Bubble: BYU, Green Bay, Old Dominion, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Bubble Teams Currently In: BYU, Old Dominion
Bubble Teams Currently Out: Green Bay, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, UTEP
Overview: BYU earned a huge road victory this week by knocking off Gonzaga. The Cougars have played a respectable schedule out of conference as well. Old Dominion has a good RPI, two quality wins and two other victories over bubble teams. Green Bay, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s and UTEP all lack huge signature victories out of conference.
Notable Projected Conference Champions: Northeastern (CAA), Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Central Michigan (MAC), Wichita State (MVC), Murray State (OVC), Wofford (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC)
*RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
