There’s a scene in the epic Kevin Smith comedy sequel, Clerks II, when near the end (spoiler alert … if that’s possible with a near decade-old movie), they’re all in a jail cell pondering how they were going to get out of their predicament (go find out on your own). Noted drug dealers and loafers Jay and Silent Bob pipe up that they’ll basically buy a business for the two main characters’ friends if they would just allow Jay and Bob to hang out on the wall all day.
The main characters, Dante and Randall, are stunned that the two do-nothings have that kind of loot and their lives are ostensibly saved. The scene is movie magic because it captures the feeling human beings have when they see something come out of nowhere, from the most unlikely of sources. So …
Here’s the deal: Kentucky isn’t losing.
There’s an anti-climactic feel to this tournament, but it hasn’t taken away from the fact that the action has been riveting almost to the point of insanity. Someone actually asked me if the games were rigged to be this close, because there’s no way it could play out this great in living color.
But “Kentucky isn’t losing” isn’t sage analysis. It’s a prediction, one that could easily be incorrect even though I personally don’t think it is. At any rate, by round, there is a path that can be most arduous for the Wildcats if the Madness continues to live up to its name.
Sweet 16: West Virginia
This is, of course, the one part of the path that’s currently set in stone. #WVU (they prefer that hashtag, I think) plays a relentless, breakneck, speed ’em up, pressing style. The Mountaineers press after everything, including missed shots, which isn’t really anything new, but folks act like it is. Heck, I used it for three years coaching. But it’s unconventional, which means it’s at least mildly difficult to prepare for on short notice. The problem is that WVU can’t shoot from deep with consistency. In 2010, when WVU knocked out John Wall-led Kentucky, they didn’t score a two-point basket in the first half. These aren’t the same Kentucky or WVU teams, obviously, but the sheer differences in style and in depth (the Mountaineers can go 13 deep) makes them a tougher opponent than any of the other options at this level.
Elite Eight: Wichita State
I know, everyone’s projecting an iconic Notre Dame – Kentucky matchup, but honestly, WSU is probably a more difficult foil. The Shockers have Final Four pedigree on their roster, not to mention a serious axe to grind with Kentucky, who knocked off their own personal unbeaten season last year in the round of 32. The only way a taste that bitter can ever leave your mouth is to deliver payback a year later. (Not really — winning is all that matters — but it makes for one hell of a source of added motivation.) The Wheat Shockers have probably the best backcourt left in the tournament, if not the most experienced. Either way, it’ll be a barroom brawl if Kentucky makes it out, especially if WSU gets offense from unlikely sources as it has thus far (think Evan Wessel, who shot down Kansas with four threes on Sunday).
Final Four: Arizona
We’ve seen the Wisconsin act before, and while Whisky is a better team this year, the Badgers are still not really fit for Kentucky, which plays great halfcourt defense and won’t be bothered by the Badgers’ tempo or style. Also, while the narrative is “spread ’em out and shoot,” UK’s range in closing out shooters will make Wisconsin uncomfortable. As for the team I actually picked here, Arizona is the only one left with the physical athletes to bother Kentucky’s. T.J. McConnell is a deft, pass-first point guard who will be able to patiently navigate the Kentucky defense. The tandem of Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is elite at both ends of the floor. Arizona will also scrap for rebounds, so Kentucky better watch out, I reckon.
National Championship Game: Gonzaga
I’m in Gonzaga’s corner every year, but this time they’re hanging out with me longer than usual. The Zags have a devastatingly good collection of passing big men, which against a shot blocking team like Kentucky is a big deal. When you can feel the defense coming and understand where to go with the ball, you can score buckets other teams cannot. The Zags also boast a veteran, tough-to-rattle backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr. UK knows former Wildcat Kyle Wiltjer well.
The Zags can’t match the athleticism of Kentucky, but not many teams have what Wiltjer brings to the court: a combination of size as a 6’10” forward, but also the ability to either finish inside or pull it for three. Gonzaga also has a 7-footer, Przemek Karnowski, who can man the post in the event the 6’10” guy decides to take the ball on the perimeter. This doesn’t even mention Domantas Sabonis, also 6’10” with a varied skill set, so yeah, Gonzaga — solely in terms of a size-and-skill competition — can make UK feel uncomfortable.
