As of Sunday morning — September 27, 2015 — the college football season is still relatively young.
A year ago, a wild September was followed by a stability-bearing October and a not-that-crazy November. The march to the first College Football Playoff certainly wasn’t free of clutter or controversy, but that controversy was mostly the making of the Big 12 and its lack of a clear, coherent approach to an inconvenient situation.
Sure, the first College Football Playoff chase did involve some surprising plot twists. No one foresaw Ohio State annihilating Wisconsin the way it did with Cardale Jones starting at quarterback in place of an injured J.T. Barrett. The Wisconsin backstory with Gary Andersen having a foot already out the door did not emerge until after the Big Ten Championship Game. Yet, on a larger level, the first playoff season in college football history was not that disordered… not in light of how fragile the landscape looked at the beginning of October.
Alabama stabilized itself in the second half of the season, winning the SEC and punching its playoff ticket. Florida State avoided stepping on several landmines, earning its spot in the final four of football. Oregon, carried by Marcus Mariota and a defense which improved in late October and beyond, overcame an early stumble to Arizona to reach the Rose Bowl playoff semifinal game. Ohio State lost earlier than anyone else in the playoff field, but the Buckeyes solidified into something special as the season moved along.
The 2014 season chaotically began, but its raging waters calmed down. The 60-mile-per-hour winds of the first half of that season became gentle breezes by Thanksgiving.
One year later, a stronger storm front is moving through the college football map.
Are we going to get Hurricane 2007 all over again? We don’t know, but it’s not too early to consider the possibility.
*
The 2007 season will remain one of the standards by which college football chaos is measured. Anyone who recalls that season could rattle off several signature events without having to consult Google or any other online reference source.
Teams that were No. 2 simply could not win.
Boston College and South Florida were No. 2 at one point (which relates to the previous statement about No. 2 teams having a hard time winning).
Everybody but Kansas lost at least twice. (That KANSAS was the one major FBS team with fewer than two losses rates as more of a shock than everyone else losing at least twice.)
Pittsburgh 13, West Virginia 9, in Morgantown. Rich Rodriguez will never experience a loss more painful than that one. None of us still know exactly how that happened.
Arkansas 50, LSU 48, in triple overtime.
2007 was “The Season That Sanity Forgot” in major college football. Whenever another month of September turns into one big loony bin, every college football chronicler wonders, “Is this going to be another 2007?”
The first rule of Fight Club: Always let a college football season play out, assuming nothing.
That said, the ingredients of a 2007-style fruit salad of insanity are certainly in the fridge. We’re waiting to see if college football will reach in the fridge, put those ingredients on the counter, and then mix them into bowls — Fiesta, Rose, Sugar, Peach, and then the big ones, the Cotton and Orange in the playoff semifinals.
Utah and UCLA, the winner carrying the banner for the Pac-12? That’s the early read, but will it hold up over the next two months? Neither team has a track record of consistently withstanding Pac-12 pressure. The scrutiny visiting those programs — with more tests awaiting — will be intense.
Ole Miss, representing the SEC’s foremost hopes? The Rebels aren’t used to this dynamic, and it showed in a shaky win over Vanderbilt. Was there a post-Bama hangover effect at work? Sure there was. The Rebels shouldn’t be overly concerned by their performance. Yet, it’s entirely legitimate to wonder if Hugh Freeze’s team is unbeaten primarily because:
A) Nick Saban started the wrong quarterback against Ole Miss;
B) Alabama played what could easily remain its worst and most undisciplined game of the season.
Texas A&M did not look convincing, even though it remained unbeaten. The same applies to LSU. Missouri got knocked off and does not seem ready to defend another SEC East title. If Alabama beats Georgia next week, the SEC won’t have a lot of top-tier stability to present to the rest of the country.
In the Big Ten and Big 12, national contenders are dealing with a tidal wave of injuries. TCU has caught the injury bug full-force on defense, and this past Saturday, Michigan State players were dropping like flies against Central Michigan. These developments could undercut two programs which — if at full strength — have national-title-level talent.
In many ways, the teams which might have the best path to the national title game are Notre Dame and Clemson, who meet this Saturday. The winner of that game will stand on comparatively solid ground when measured against the rest of the field. Yet, Notre Dame barely beat Virginia, and Clemson barely escaped Louisville.
The Group of Five might produce an unbeaten American Athletic Conference champion, but it’s way too early to say — with any degree of confidence — that one team has a good chance. Memphis might be the most high-profile team of that bunch, and given the way the Tigers (don’t) play defense, it’s hard to see how Justin Fuente’s group will remain unblemished over the next two months.
The 2007 season was the wildest ride college football fans endured this century. Perhaps this season will settle down, but if it doesn’t, be intellectually and emotionally ready for more chaos and disruption on a grand scale.
