Bloguin Top 50: No. 22 – LSU

LSU Tigers
2014 Record: 8-5 overall, 4-4 SEC (lost to Notre Dame in Music City Bowl)

1 Burning Question: Can the Tigers find a QB?

After four straight double digit win seasons, LSU struggled to an 8-5 record in 2014. The biggest reason for their decline? They were dead last in the SEC in passing yards.

With Zach Mettenberger at the helm in 2013, the Tigers had a very balanced offense totaling 2600 yards on the ground 3200 through the air. 2014 saw the Tigers complete just 46% of their passes in conference games with a TD to INT ratio of 7:6.

The bad news for Tigers fans is that the same group of QBs, led by Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings, return this season. Jennings played in 13 games last year completing just 48% of his passes and throwing 11 TD against 7 INT. As a freshman, Brandon Harris completed 55% of his passes and tossed 6 TD against 2 INT. Jennings averaged 2.7 ypc while Harris averaged 6.2 and added 6 rushing TD.

LSU has a stud RB in the making, they have a young and talented group of wide receivers that is poised to break out and they have a serviceable offense line. Without a dependable QB though, the offense won’t be good enough to help LSU push back into the upper half of the SEC West.

For LSU to improve this season they will need Brandon Harris to step in the role as their starting QB. Last year was a learning experience for him and in 2015 he must start putting it together or the Tigers are in danger of falling further toward the bottom of the SEC West.

2 Key Stats to Pay Attention to

55.32 — This is the percentage that LSU scored a TD when they were in the red zone. Poor QB play prevented the Tigers from putting points on the board in 2014 in many situations.

396.5 — This is the number of yards per game the Clemson Tigers allowed in 2012, Kevin Steele’s last year as their defensive coordinator. How is this important you ask? Steele is stepping into the shoes of John Chavis. During Chavis’s run with LSU, the Tigers never had to worry about the defense. Will they have to worry this year?

3 Key Games That Will Make or Break the Season

Full 2015 Schedule
9/5 — McNeese State
9/12 — at Mississippi State
9/19 — vs Auburn
9/26 — at Syracuse
10/3 — vs Eastern Michigan
10/10 — at South Carolina
10/17 — vs Florida
10/24– vs WKU
10/31 — Open Date
11/7 — at Alabama
11/14 — vs Arkansas
11/21 — at Ole Miss
11/28 — vs Texas A&M

Saturday, September 12, at Mississippi State
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 4-1
Last Year’s Result: L, 29-34

Why it matters: After owning Dan Mullen, the Tigers finally fell to Mississippi State for the first time during the Mullen era. Les Miles doesn’t want to make a habit of losing to the Bulldogs. This is also an early season game and it’s pivotal for the Tigers to get off to a good start.

Saturday, September 19, vs Auburn
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2
Last Year’s Result: L, 7-41

Why it matters: LSU has had a good run against Auburn of late but last year Auburn rolled over LSU. This is another early season game and the big question is if LSU can keep up with Auburn on the scoreboard.

Saturday, November 14, vs Arkansas
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2
Last Year’s Result: L, 0-17

Why it matters: LSU managed just 126 total yards in this game in 2014. Not only did they get shut out in a conference game but this was Arkansas’s first conference win after 17 straight losses. The Hogs are on the rise and they are a team that LSU must beat this season.

4 Key Players

LSU's win over Wisconsin and Auburn's win over Kansas State did more to shape perceptions (and resumes) in the 2014 college football season than any other non-conference games. This point cannot be forgotten when a full account of the season is ultimately rendered.

Leonard Fournette, RB– Fournette finished last season with just over 1,000 yards and 10 TD. In LSU’s five losses, Fournette was held under 100 yards in four of those games. Fournette is the best weapon this team has and he has to bring it each and every game.

Travin Dural, WR – Fournette is the workhorse but the Tigers have to have others step up and this junior WR is due for a breakout season. He led the team with 37 catches and 7 TD in 2014 and he needs to give the Tigers a steady second option if they are going to move the football on a consistent basis.

Kendall Beckwith, LB – Beckwith really emerged last year and with a full season of starting ahead of him, he should become an all-out star. Beckwith has the speed and athleticism that will make him one of the best players in the country at his position.

Tre’Davious White, CB – White is one of the top cover corners in college football and if he can lock down his guy it will give the LSU defense a chance to do damage in other places.

5 Bold Predictions

5. Brandon Harris will make big strides in 2015.

Increased knowledge of the playbook and better health will aid Harris in taking big steps forward in 2015. He won’t be one of the best QBs in the league but he will put himself into position to take the LSU offense to the next level in 2016.

4. LSU’s talented wide receiver group will start to break through.

Youth was not LSU’s friend last season. They had youth at all of the offensive skill positions and it was a recipe for disaster. This year the young wide receiver group will start to make plays all over the field. Come 2016 this will begin to pay dividends, as the core offensive skill group will be at its peak.

3. The LSU defense will take a step back in 2015.

With John Chavis moving over to Texas A&M, the solidity of LSU’s defense has to be questioned. The LSU defense has consistently been one of the best in the league and a step back doesn’t necessarily mean it will be bad…the Tigers just won’t be as good as they have been in recent years.

2. Leonard Fournette will rush for 1,500 yards.

I’ve already gone on record as saying that Fournette won’t win the Heisman Trophy this season. Even though he won’t win the trophy (this year), he will be one of the best players in the country and he will break the 1,500-yard mark in 2015.

1. LSU will start 7-1, but finish 8-4.

LSU’s schedule is back-loaded. The Tigers play Auburn and Mississippi State early and then South Carolina and Florida in the middle. The tough part is the four weeks at the end of the season which feature road games against Bama and Ole Miss and home dates against Arkansas and A&M. LSU’s offense will improve but with the defense taking a step back, I see the Tigers ending in a similar place as they finished in 2014.

 

About Kevin Causey

Dry humorist, craft beer enthusiast, occasionally unbiased SEC fan, UGA alumni, contributor for The Comeback.

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