Yes, playoffs haven’t started. No, the June Draft hasn’t happened, nor July’s free agency period but that won’t stop us from taking a gander at the possible depth chart in Sunrise come the 2016-2017 season. As it stands now, the Florida Panthers are making a strong push towards the playoffs and that will only enhance expectations for next year.
Depth Chart Key:
Red = RFA at year’s end
Green = UFA at year’s end
“?” = Possibly joining Pro ranks from NCAA/Junior
Recommended: Click the image to open in new window.
Let’s break it down:
NHL
Like most NHL teams, let’s go from the back out. Bobby Lu mans the crease again next year but his backup is in question. Al Montoya had a redemption season, which greatly benefits him as he may head to the open market July 1st. Al stood tall this season but his past numbers, age (turning 32 in Feb. 2017), and GM Dale Tallon’s (fairly) recent search into the back up goalie market make it unlikely he would return. But never say never. My money is that a goalie is moved up, or a trade is made to acquire a backup goalie.
The defense should remain mostly intact. Deadline acquisition Jakub Kindl luckily has another year on his deal, and Michael Matheson should start the year with the big club. The whispers of Linus Hultstrom signing with the Cats are true (#11), the 23 year old leading defensive scorer in the SHL will probably also join the right side. That gives you three righties and three lefties on your NHL roster, and lefty Brian Campbell heading to UFA and righty Erik Gudbranson heads to RFA. There seems like a real willingness to bring back Soupy, and his play this year backs it up. Despite the lax coverage in front of his own net at times, Campbell steadied the back line over the course of the last five seasons.
Gudbranson may be the odd man out. The right side isn’t an area of concern for the Panthers (unlike the majority of the NHL’s teams) and the salary structure on the back end might not leave room for Guds. Petrovic has played well and gives you a similar output as Gudbranson. The best course of action may be to use the strength on the back right (at NHL and prospect levels) to sure up the hole in the goalie pipeline or add a scoring RW to replace Jagr (whenever he decides to hang them up).
Up front the biggest question is whether to re-sign none, one, or both of wingers Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell. Too early to speculate but both gel with the team on and off ice. It’s a two way street, Purcell and Hudler would have to want to come back, but it seems unlikely that both would walk if Panthers have a say. It may take up a valuable roster spot bringing one or both back but it is worth it (as of today). If you really need the roster spot, there are other ways to make it happen.
The forward group should expect some consistency next year, as I’d be hard pressed to think of a reason to adjust the top 9 if no trades are made. The only huge contracts to deal with are Trocheck’s and Jagr’s. Trocheck’s may go the distance- like Huberdeau- but I don’t doubt a deal will get done by camp. Jagr, well, I think that is a safe bet, health permitting. Quinton Howden and Logan Shaw need new contracts as well but are of a lesser importance. Howden may be in the doghouse at the moment (stuck in press row alley) but his speed and development this year makes him a low-risk re-sign. Logan Shaw has the affinity of coach Gerard Gallant and I would be shocked if he wasn’t signed quickly when the season ends.
Shawn Thornton will, unfortunately, be taking up a roster spot which makes the rest a little murky. Can Lawson Crouse win a spot? I’d assume so. He has the pro size, is poised for a long productive playoff appearance in the OHL this spring, and doesn’t have much to prove in junior next season. Without being able to go to the AHL, Crouse really only has one option, NHL. The bigger question will be whether Dave Bolland is bought out or assigned to the AHL or taking a regular shift in the NHL. The buyout may be too soon. If the Panthers wait until offseason 2017 to buy out Bolland, his $1.833 million cap hit is for the next 4 seasons. Should they buy him out this year, the cap hit would be applied over six seasons.
(Editor: in regards to Lawson Crouse, his fate likely lies in what happens with Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The hope with Crouse is that he will be a strong 2-way presence at LW on a scoring line in the future. Therefore, in my opinion, it would suit Crouse best to slot in either as the #2 or #3 LW. He should not be put in a 4th line role, and I do not believe that he will be. If one or both of Purcell and Hudler are retained, however, that could make it very tough for him to crack the roster. – AJ)
The only real room for improvement might be to upgrade a top 9 RW spot for next season through trade, signing, or draft. At the moment there is not a set Jagr replacement in the system or on the roster. The reality of Jagr’s age needs to be dealt with before he retires. It might be best to have Jagr groom the next top line RW scorer, himself. If that is the case, the perfect time is now.
AHL
It is unsure whether Sam Brittain will meet the same fate as Michael Houser did last year. After a tough go acclimating to the professional shooters, Houser was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Panthers and his rights were released. It wouldn’t shock me to see Brittain to be dealt with in the same way. Dan Ellis was played over Brittain last year, and this year Mike McKenna was kept in Portland and started the majority of the games. Colin Stevens, stuck in the ECHL, either needs to develop quickly or be stuck in the minors his whole career. Ideally, you keep Brittain and Stevens (should Evan Cowley not leave Denver this year) and let them duke it out in the AHL. Should Cowley leave Denver, it shouldn’t change the AHL plans much. Cowley, who for the second NCAA tournament in a row is riding pine for Denver, will probably have to sharpen his skills in ECHL like Stevens first.
Jonathan Racine, Dylan Olsen, and Cameron Gaunce are all RFAs but with slim pickings on the left hand side its likely one or two is extended a contract offer. Racine has shown promise, and an ability to grow into a 3rd pair/extra defenseman role in the NHL. Gaunce, 26, had the 4th most points for the Pirates and I expect him back. Olsen, on the other hand, would make sense as a departure. Opportunity here is limited for him and it’s beneficial for the Cats to rotate a younger, more promising defender in his spot.
Beyond the question marks, the defense that is there looks solid. Steven Kampfer may find himself in the AHL to start the year with the logjam up in the NHL. Mackenzie Weegar is starting to feel and look comfortable on AHL ice and that bodes well. Brent Regner and Josh Brown might not be first on the call ups list but they get the job done and provide size, grit, and leadership on the blueline. In the AHL with the prospects, that’s important. Michael Downing has forgone his final season in NCAA for Michigan and will join the Pirates. Downing did well with top prospect Zach Werenski (Columbus’ first round pick in 2015), and will look to prove he isn’t just a product of his partner. Ian McCoshen may also decide to forgo his senior year at Boston College (especially if the Eagles take home a national championship). McCoshen’s addition can take this group from “solid” to “good.”
The big additions to the lineup are WHL scoring wizards Jayce Hawryluk and Dryden Hunt, along with the future Marcus Kruger, Jr. — Juho Lammikko. Don’t use pencil, pen them in as top 6 forwards on Portland should they not crack the NHL lineup. Unfortunately for Rocco, the spot probably still isn’t there. Grimaldi is scoring at a 0.64 points per game rate, matching his scoring rate in the AHL last year. The good news is the split this year is much more favorable for goals, rather than assists. However, I get that gut feeling Rocco is trade bait. It’s just a question of when the fish takes the worm.
If Rob Schremp is not extended, there may be riots in Maine. Schremp has been hella fun and hella productive, leading the Pirates in goals and points. Lots of red RFAs in the AHL so far but I expect Brickley, Wilson, and at least one of McKegg or Knight to get NHL offers. I’d be surprised to see anyone leave, save Shane Harper and John McFarland.
Saving the best for last, what are the plans for Denis Malgin? Malgin is AHL eligible as he was drafted out of Europe. Malgin is also QMJHL eligible as his rights are owned by Rouyn-Noranda. Tallon tried to convince Malgin to join his old Q team this season but Malgin chose to stay in Suisse. It may be worthless to send the 20 year old to junior but if there isn’t the time needed for development in the AHL available, what can you do? Eventually, Malgin needs to come over. The sooner, the better.
Conclusion
Both the NHL and AHL squads look markedly better. The Panthers are starting to blossom into the power house they want to be, and the depth chart in the NHL is starting to resemble that. A few moves and juggling in the offseason by Tallon will (fingers crossed) only improve upon this. The AHL also looks formidable and a slew of signings over the summer will bolster it even more. This may only be a routine check-up but the positive diagnostic should be re-assuring. Cats are on the right path,no matter what happens in the post season.
