Only three points separate the Bruins from the Panthers in the Atlantic Division standings. And if playoffs started today, the Cats would face-off against these Bs in the first round. That makes tonight’s game a little more hyped. Not only are they jockeying for playoff position, they may very well be jockeying for home ice against one another. It is important not to get bogged down in this narrative as a fan. The bigger picture for the Panthers should still be 1st place in the division and a post season date with the first Wildcard team. The Cats are currently tied in points and games played as first place Tampa Bay.
A loss to the Bruins tonight makes things tighter, sure, but one loss does not predict doom nor gloom for the playoffs or playoff position. Remember, the Panthers have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks and the team should continue to get healthier (i.e. deeper).
Read up about tonight’s match-up by the numbers, and give a listen to our Pre-Game Skate Podcast below.
The Numbers
Team Breakdown
| Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 40-24-9 (2nd Atlantic) | 39-27-8 (3rd Atlantic) |
| GF/60 (5v5) | 2.39 | 2.46 |
| GA/60 (5v5) | 2.05 | 2.29 |
| CF/60 (5v5) | 48.71 | 54.69 |
| CA/60 (5v5) | 53.31 | 57.87 |
| PDO (5v5) | 101.56 | 100.56 |
| Power Play | 17.3% - 43 for 248 (22nd) | 20.9% - 43 for 206 (7th) |
| Penalty Kill | 80.9% - 191 for 236 (19th) | 82.3% - 196 for 238 (9th) |
Individual Leaders
| Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins | |
|---|---|---|
| Points | Jaromir Jagr - 55 | Patrice Bergeron - 61 |
| Goals | Jaromir Jagr - 24 | Brad Marchand - 34 |
| Assists | Jussi Jokinen - 39 | David Krejci - 39 |
| P1/60 (5v5) | Jiri Hudler - 1.98 | David Krejci - 1.87 |
| iCorsi/60 (5v5) | Jakub Kindl - 13.29 | Frank Vatrano - 18.23 |
| CF% rel (5v5, SA) | Jakub Kindl - +8.75% | Patrice Bergeron - 7.83% |
| PenD (5v5) | Aleksander Barkov - +9 | David Pastrnak - +5 |
Goalie Matchup
| Roberto Luongo | Tuukka Rask | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-18-6 | 28-20-7 |
| Sv% | .920 | .918 |
| AvgShDA (feet) | 31.87 | 35.06 |
| ReboundAg/60 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
| RushShotAg/60 | 1.93 | 1.91 |
| GAA | 2.37 | 2.51 |
* – Stats are courtesy of Corsica.Hockey, War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
Florida Panthers
| #11 Jonathan Huberdeau | #16 Aleksander Barkov | #68 Jaromir Jagr |
| #36 Jussi Jokinen | #21 Vincent Trocheck | #18 Reilly Smith |
| #26 Teddy Purcell | #27 Nick Bjugstad | #24 Jiri Hudler |
| #48 Logan Shaw | #41 Greg McKegg | #42 Quinton Howden |
| #7 Dmitry Kulikov | #5 Aaron Ekblad |
| #51 Brian Campbell | #6 Alex Petrovic |
| #46 Jakub Kindl | #44 Erik Gudbranson |
Boston Bruins
| #63 Brad Marchand | #37 Patrice Bergeron | #20 Lee Stempniak |
| #21 Loui Eriksson | #46 David Krejci | #88 David Pastrnak |
| #39 Matt Beleskey | #51 Ryan Spooner | #11 Jimmy Hayes |
| #72 Frank Vatrano | #55 Noel Acciari | #14 Brett Connolly |
| #33 Zdeno Chara | #86 Kevan Miller |
| #47 Torey Krug | #44 Dennis Seidenberg |
| #26 John-Michael Liles | #54 Adam McQuaid |
The Hat Trick
Jakub Kindl: Some errant plays seem to cloud Kindl’s performance in the fans’ eyes. Kindl, acquired for a measly 6th round pick, moves the puck well and creates offense. Puck moving defenders have higher turnover rates than over-hyped “stay-at-home” defenders. But when you consider that stay-at-home D do not get scored for a turnover if they chip the puck out of the zone to the opposing team, maybe Kindl doesn’t turn the puck over more. It’s easy for our eyes to see the few turnovers a D makes that lead to opportunities and goals. Hey, there is no one but a goalie to back up a defender if they get beat. But the eyes and memory obscure what the data (a historical record of what happens in the game) shows. Jakub Kindl has been a steal, and has bettered the Panthers in all three zones. Don’t believe me? Just check out his With-or-Without You from Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath).
Kindl, and those who play with him, stay on the positive side of puck possession
Aleksander Barkov: Barkov enters tonight’s game pointless in his last three games. This is the first time Barkov has gone 3 games without a point since the middle of January. In fact, it’s the first time he has gone 2 games without a point in the same time frame. Matched up against the Bruins, Barkov will need to make strides to get back on the score sheet while keeping Bergeron’s line in check. Tall task ahead for the Finnish center but one he has shown ability to complete. Should Boston coach Claude Julien match lines, expect it to raise Barkov’s play. Sasha thrives off the center match-up game within a game.
Power Play: Dating back to March 7th’s game against Boston, the Panthers power play has a goal in 6 of the last 8 games. Maybe the bigger story is that both the first and second units are sharing the load 50/50 in those 8 games. Similar time on ice and similar production on the power play down the stretch is good news. The more scoring options when the game is on the line, the more confidence teams have in their ability to score goals and win games. That is huge in April, May and June. Panthers could use a continuation of recent power play consistency.
Closing Thoughts
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