Yesterday, Matthew O’Brien of Whyhockey posted the Under the Scope (Part 1)- Overview and Strengths. Click here to read the piece, if you have not yet.
Let us finish what we started. Here’s the second part of Under the Scope!
Weaknesses
Wingers
One glaring weakness for the Panthers is the lack of right-handed wingers. They only have six total, one of them being Shawn Thornton. Thornton may find himself either in the AHL or off the roster shortly, simply because there isn’t enough room for him. With the system that Gerard Gallant runs that requires almost equal ice time spread throughout the four offensive lines, you cannot afford to have unskilled players taking up roster space. As much as Thornton may be a fan favorite and a character guy that Tallon loves, in order to take the next step forward as an organization, the Panthers have to continue to shed dead weight like they did with the free agent exodus this summer.
By far the best right handed winger with the most upside in the system is Rocco Grimaldi who has a strong chance to fully begin his NHL career this year. He was impressive in seven games this past season, creating chances for himself and teammates through his non-stop work ethic, blazing speed, and silky hands. After an injury sidelined him his freshman year at North Dakota, he went on to tally 30 goals and 75 points in 82 games over the course of two seasons before making the jump to the AHL. It didn’t seem there was too much of an adjustment to the pro game, as he put up 42 points in 64 games for the Rampage. Whether it is next year or the year after, it is certain that Grimaldi will be an NHLer very soon.
Jayce Hawryluk is the next best right handed winger in the system but should be returning to the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL for next season. Though a little taller than Grimaldi, Hawryluk is also a relatively small forward (sub 6’) and plays a high energy game. They are both spark plug type players that rely on their speed, stickhandling, and elusiveness to create offense. Hawryluk has similar upside to Grimaldi and makes you wonder if both will be in the plans moving forward.
The rest of the right handed wing depth consists of Logan Shaw, Joe Wegwerth, and recently drafted Chris Wilkie. None of these three really inspire confidence to become full time NHLers and are most likely career AHLers at best.
On the left wing the Panthers have a plethora of players from all ages and skillsets. When they acquired Jaromir Jagr from the Devils last February they probably did not expect him to have as much of an immediate impact as he did. But he gelled instantly with Huberdeau and Barkov to form a legitimate top line. Jagr has done wonders mentoring his linemates and next year should be a treat to watch them together for a full 82 games.
The major concern on left wing right now is Jonathan Huberdeau’s outstanding contract. And I don’t mean how awesome it is. Huberdeau remains a Restricted Free Agent as we approach the beginning of August and what was once thought to be a relatively easy negotiation has lingered into an uneasy situation. While it is expected a deal will be done in plenty of time, it’s getting very nerve-wracking awaiting any news on developments. If the Panthers can get Huberdeau locked up to good term and cap hit, they will have laid the foundation to have great success moving forward.
Jussi Jokinen finished second on the team in points last season but needs more if the Panthers want to play beyond 82 games in 15-16. That shouldn’t be a problem if his abysmal shooting percentage of 6% climbs back up closer to league average next year. With a year under his belt in South Florida and hopefully a more steady linemate situation next season, Jokinen should rebound nicely.
When Tallon traded for Reilly Smith from the Boston Bruins, it was done so with that hope that he and Brandon Pirri could rekindle chemistry they had playing youth hockey with each other. Pirri was lights out last year, scoring a whopping 22 goals in just 49 games and most nights was the Panthers only real offensive threat. He possesses a heavy and accurate shot that often leaves goalies helpless. Of course, it is well known that Pirri had only 2 assists to go along with his 22 tallies, and that simply needs to improve. The major knock against the Panthers was their inability to get secondary scoring from the other three lines and they certainly attempted to address that issue with Smith. Just a year removed from a 20 goal season with the Bruins, Smith saw an eleven point decrease in production. If he can rebound next season, the Panthers shouldn’t have any trouble getting goals throughout their lineup.
The only other projected top six left handed winger in the system is 2015 11th overall pick Lawson Crouse, who certainly already has the size to play in the NHL as soon as next year. Standing 6’4” and weighing 215 lbs., Crouse fits the mold of size, skill and character Tallon adores. He could use at least one more year in junior to develop his offensive and scoring abilities but he may get at least some of the nine NHL games granted him before his contract kicks in.
His linemate at Kingston, Juho Lammikko, is also a member of the Panthers organization but is more of a long shot to make the NHL than Crouse. Lammikko played center for Kingston this past year. Depending on how Kingston uses him this year will go a long way to determine where he lines up as a pro. However, with the Panthers centers more solidified than their wingers, there is a good chance Lammikko stays a winger in the NHL. It’s not unreasonable that the chemistry developed between the two at Kingston could sway the Panthers to consider Lammikko for an NHL spot down the line if he continues to develop.
As far as bottom six prospects go, the Panthers have several quality options in Garrett Wilson, Quinton Howden, and Connor Brickley. Wilson was impressive in a short stint with the Panthers last year and is capable of bottom six duties. Quinton Howden has been an enigma since joining the fold when he was drafted in 2010. He put up good numbers in the WHL but has not been able to translate his production to the pro level yet. Injuries have hampered his progress but to make it in the NHL, Howden needs to stay healthy. As it stands, his blazing speed is enough to give him serious consideration for a bottom six NHL role, and can surpass those expectations if he can develop a scoring touch. Brickley played out his college career on a bad Vermont team, never surpassing 15 points once in four years. In 81 AHL games, however, he has tallied 49 points and shot up the depth chart. Long considered to be an afterthought, Brickley has now entered into the conversation to be considered for a bottom six NHL role in the near future.
The final two left-handed wingers in the system are Yaroslav Kosov and Miguel Fidler. Both are long shots to make the NHL, especially Kosov who has yet to leave his KHL team. It has long been known that Kosov does not want to come to North America to play in the AHL, making it very difficult to envision him on the Panthers anytime soon. Fidler will be attending Ohio State University next year after spending two years in the USHL and is still several years away from making the jump to the AHL, let alone the NHL.
Goalies
Perhaps the weakest part of the Panthers’ system is the goaltending position, where, aside from current starter Roberto Luongo, there is not much to to rely on. Al Montoya was brought in last year to be an upgrade from former backup Scott Clemmensen but was very disappointing. He appeared in 20 games last season, getting a decision in only 15 of them for a 6-7-2 mark. He had the lowest save percentage and second highest goals against average of his career, posting a paltry .892 and 3.01 respectively. It wasn’t just a bad year statistically but also mentally. Montoya was outplayed by AHL veteran and NHL journeyman goalie Dan Ellis. Fortunately for him, there isn’t really any threat from below to steal his job (Dan Ellis is no longer in the organization), so he should remain the Panthers backup for at least another year barring a trade.
The most interesting goalie currently in the system is former Union netminder Colin Stevens, who helped lead the Dutchmen to their first ever NCAA National Championship in 2014. Signed as a free agent, Stevens is another dart for Tallon to throw at the board in hopes it hits the bullseye. With the addition of Stevens to the fold, it really turns the heat up on fellow AHL netminder Sam Brittain to step up his play if he wants to remain in the Panthers’ plans.
Brittain was passed over in favor of Dan Ellis when both Luongo and Montoya went down for an extended period of time late last season. Though in the midst of a playoff race, it does not bode well for his future that he wasn’t tabbed to get a start during that time. While called up to serve as backup, Brittain did not see any action while there.
The Panthers also have Mike McKenna, a career AHL goalie, for Portland this year. This year’s Dan Ellis. The 32 year old McKenna played for Portland Pirates in the AHL, Florida’s new AHL affiliate, last season. His signing is most likely a sentimental one. McKenna has bounced around the American league (and country) year after year. McKenna most likely sought geographical stability and Tallon obliged. From a hockey standpoint, McKenna will be hard up for playing time. Should he expect more than one year with the organization, McKenna will have to regain form.
The reason this is such a do-or-die year for these three backstops is the addition of Samuel Montembeault and Ryan Bednard to the system, both drafted this June. Also waiting in the wings is University of Denver goalie Evan Cowley.
A factor that may have led to the Panthers selecting two goalies this draft is Cowley’s inconsistent play. Cowley began the NCAA season as the undisputed starter for the University of Denver, but was overtaken by Tanner Jaillet by its end. Cowley still has two years left at Denver and it is expected he plays out his NCAA eligibility there. Adding Montembeault and Bednard secures the goalie prospect pool in case Cowley is unable to regain his foothold in Denver.
Ryan Bednard was a shot in the dark, much like Hugo Fagerblom the year before. It is not very common that a goalie taken in the later rounds, especially North American goalies, will ever make the NHL. But you can never have too many goalies in the system, as it is easily the most finicky and hard to predict position in the game. Bednard, who is 6’3”, is on course to make the jump from the NAHL to the USHL this coming season.
Finally, there is Samuel Montembeault. He is probably the best chance the Panthers have at a goalie of the future. He is a very positionally sound goalie that possesses a quick reaction time, solid rebound control, and a flashy glove hand. He put up decent numbers in the notoriously goalie-unfriendly QMJHL for the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada and will return for a 3rd season. It is important to note that coach Joel Bouchard has had a hand in developing top prospects Jake Allen and J-F Berube. If he can have an equal effect on Montembeault, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he makes it to the NHL.
Conclusion
Moving forward, the Panthers should be a very tough team to beat. They finally have quality talent throughout their lineup and their prospect pool is better than ever. Even at the NHL level, they have a lot of young players with skill and character that should help them become a perennial contender in the Eastern Conference.
They are undoubtedly the strongest on defense, with a slew of young players already on the roster and waiting in the wings. It should be a long time before the Panthers are in need of bringing in an outside defenseman to bolster their blueline. Their top two centers are also set for the foreseeable future, with Bjugstad locked up long term and Barkov set for a new contract after the ‘15-’16 season. Tallon will do whatever it takes to get him in the fold for years to come.
Behind those two, the center situation gets a little murky. They have a few talented prospects but most project to be NHL wingers, if only because their offensive ability would be put to better use in a top six role, which means shifting to wing. This is not a bad thing, though, as the winger depth, especially right handed wingers, is almost non-existent as you move down the chart. They would do well to milk a few more years out of Jagr and Jokinen to let some younger guys develop.
The biggest question mark on wing is Brandon Pirri. If he can build off the success he had last season, the wings look a lot stronger than they do now. Pirri is a solid player, but it is uncertain if he can put up similar numbers to his 22 goals in 49 games last season. If he can, and if Reilly Smith is the catalyst, the Panthers wing depth gains a bigger boost.
Another major concern on the wing is Jonathan Huberdeau’s lingering contract situation. It is all but certain a deal will get done in time to start the season, but at what cost to the organization in terms of finances and in terms of Huberdeau’s happiness in South Florida. Long contract negotiations can leave a sour taste in the mouth of at least one party, but let’s hope that isn’t the case here.
Dale Tallon quickly has adjusted to and addressed the needs of the roster. If he can continue to be deft at getting quality players for the roster, his only hurdle will be containing them all under the salary cap. The Florida Panthers could be a force for years to come.
Projected Lineup
Before I wrap this article up, I wanted to try my hand at building the roster for the ‘15-’16 Panthers. This is what I think the team will look like come October, assuming the depth chart remains the same between now and then, and Huberdeau reaches a new contract.
Florida Panthers
Jonathan Huberdeau – Aleksander Barkov – Jaromir Jagr
Brandon Pirri – Nick Bjugstad – Reilly Smith
Jussi Jokinen – Vincent Trocheck – Rocco Grimaldi
Dave Bolland – Derek MacKenzie – Garrett Wilson
Brian Campbell – Aaron Ekblad
Dmitry Kulikov – Erik Gudbranson
Willie Mitchell – Alex Petrovic
Roberto Luongo
Al Montoya
Extras: Shawn Thornton, Steven Kampfer
Prospect Preview
There are a few Panthers to keep an eye on that will be playing outside of the NHL next year. Lawson Crouse is the obvious choice, assuming he will be returned to Kingston for another year. He is already physically dominant at that level and could hack it in the NHL but it would be good for him to develop his scoring touch in a top line role rather than play third line minutes. It will be especially interesting to watch if he is paired with fellow Panther Juho Lammikko. If they can build a rapport with one another on the ice and take steps forward, they both could find themselves in the NHL sooner than later.
Jayce Hawryluk of the Brandon Wheat Kings is another Panther who could make huge strides in his development this year. Hawryluk is entering his fourth in the WHL and has improved every year. He put up career highs in goals (30) and points (65) last year in the least amount of games of his three seasons. Brandon was near the top of the league last year and should remain there this year and challenge for a Memorial Cup.
Unfortunately, the most dynamic and exciting prospect outside of the NHL will be nearly impossible to see on a regular basis. Denis Malgin will be playing for Zurich in the Suisse League, sadly. The good news, he helps lead an up-and-coming Switzerland national team in the U20 World Junior Championship, so we can savor his silky mitts briefly until he makes the full transition to North America and the NHL.
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