NFL Genius vs the Spread, Week 3: Bad Idea Jeans edition

Bad ideas come in all shapes and sizes, whether it’s someone in Hollywood deciding to give Taylor Lautner his own “action movie,” or you going against your better instincts when it comes to picking football games against the spread. Often, there’s something so seductive about the bad idea that you can convince yourself it’s not only the right thing to do, but courageous as well.

This week, we explore the dark side, the myriad bad ideas that can creep into your head and allow you to second-guess the smart-money pick.

Jacksonville at Carolina (-3.5): Panthers

Smart money says: Football games are decided by advantageous matchups. Jacksonville’s terrible pass defense simply can’t match up with the connection between Cam Newton and Steve Smith. The Jags will take away the run, but that won’t help them win behind a rookie QB of their own.

The bad idea: “No way am I putting money on a winless team to not only win the game, but cover more than three points. Cam Newton was a nice story, but it’s time for his inevitable rookie comeuppance. Sorry, not happening.”


Miami at Cleveland (-3): Dolphins (Upset of the week)

Smart money says: With Peyton Hillis limited, Cleveland just doesn’t have enough weapons to make for a trustworthy bet. They haven’t exactly impressed against Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Bet on the best weapons to make the difference, and Brandon Marshall and Cameron Wake are better than anyone on Cleveland’s roster.

The bad idea: “Cleveland owns this series, beating the spread against Miami in 2007 and last year. Stick with the hot hand, and besides, Miami looks like garbage. Tony Sparano is getting fired after this game.”


Denver at Tennessee (-6.5): Titans

Smart money says: Tennessee proved last week they don’t need Chris Johnson to win against a very good opponent. This week they face a significantly worse defense, at home, and have Johnson ready for another 20-25 carries as a bonus. Easy money. 

The bad idea: “You can’t trust Matt Hasselbeck. He’s been pretty consistently crappy for the last four years. I don’t care how bad his offensive line was in Seattle, he’s done. Last week was a last hurrah. And Chris Johnson is garbage this year. Shouldn’t have held out, the greedy bastard. Kyle Orton throws to TIM TEBOW!!1!11 #winning”


New England (-8.5) at Buffalo: Patriots 

Smart money says: Somebody has to stop this New England offense before I start picking against them. They’ve covered seven of the past ten spreads in this matchup for a reason. Everybody loves the Bills and I do too, but they’re simply outgunned in this one.

The bad idea: “Everybody and their grandmother is going to pick New England in this one. I’m going against the grain. All Buffalo has to do is stay within a touchdown and I’ll look like a genius!”


Houston at New Orleans (-4): Texans

Smart money says: Don’t be distracted by Arian Foster’s leg troubles. This is a vastly improved Houston team that can cut you a hundred different ways on offense, and now has a defense to match. The Saints’ offense is still formidable, but their defense is overrated.

The bad idea: “Houston hasn’t proven anything yet. The Saints are getting back to their Super Bowl form and are going to shred Wade Phillips’ defense just like they did against Dallas.”


NY Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5): Eagles

Smart money says: Philly’s pass defense is formidable and the Giants are banged up at WR with Manningham and Hixon out. While they struggle against the run and NY has a pair of fine runners, RBs don’t cover spreads and they don’t win games in today’s NFL. Plus, the Giants are little changed from the team that has failed to cover the last six spreads against Philly, while the Eagles have only gotten better.

The bad idea: “Everyone’s down on the Giants because of their stupid antics on Monday Night. I bet they come out fired up and destroy Mike Vick or whoever’s in the pocket. I don’t know how they’re going to score, but Eli will come up with some magic like he always does.”


Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota: Lions (Lock of the week)

Smart money says: The Lions are for real. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been on fire since the preseason, and are just carrying it forward into the games that count. They’ve beaten up on a couple of bad teams already, and face another one this week.

The bad idea: “I’m so sick of hearing about the Lions and how everyone should love them. This is the week they come back to earth.”


San Francisco at Cincinnati (-3): Bengals 

Smart money says: In any other year, AJ Green would be a runaway offensive rookie of the year winner, but Cam Newton is stealing all the thunder right now. Dalton to Green is a dangerous combo, and SF’s corners and pass rush are still the weak point of this defense. The Niners’ offense is atrocious, btw.

The bad idea: “Can’t trust a rookie QB to start covering spreads. Alex Smith might have sucked his whole career, but they say he’s looking good under Harbaugh. They should have beat Dallas last week, after all. Plus, CedBen is a dipshit.”


Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5): Chiefs

Smart money says: The Chiefs are an abysmal team, but the Chargers can’t be trusted with big spreads. Three times in the last five years they’ve been home favorites by more than ten points over KC. They’ve covered only one of those spreads. While KC has been destroyed on offense by injuries, their primary defensive playmakers (minus Eric Berry) are still healthy. They lose, but not by 15.

The bad idea: “Chiefs outscored 89-10 so far? Excuse me while I laugh a Nelson laugh and go all in on the Chargers. Easiest pick I ever made.”


New York Jets (-3.5) at Oakland: Jets

Smart money says: Remember when I said that running backs don’t cover spreads? I’m making an exception in this game, since neither quarterback can be trusted. But it’s not Darren McFadden that wins it, it’s the combination of Shonn Greene and Ladanian Tomlinson against the Raiders’ outrageously bad linebacking corps. They’re giving up more than 7 yards per carry on the season, worst in the league, while the Jets are comfortably in the top ten by allowing only 3.3 ypc.

The bad idea: “God, I hate the Jets so damn much.”


Baltimore (-4) at St Louis: Ravens

Smart money says: I don’t trust Flacco farther than I can throw him, but Ray Rice and their defense are too strong, and the Rams are still figuring out their red zone troubles. Can’t cover spreads trading touchdowns for field goals.

The bad idea: “Never mind the scoreboard, Bradford already outplayed Eli last week, and takes a step past Flacco in this one. The Rams are a better team than they’ve shown. They started 0-2 last year before turning it around.”


Arizona (-3.5) at Seattle: Arizona

Smart money says: Forget home field advantage, this series has come down to the simple question: who has the better quarterback? Last year, it was Seattle and they won both. 2008-09 it was Arizona, and they swept. Kevin Kolb is light-years better than Tarvaris Jackson, and Larry Fitzgerald is light years better than a one-armed Sidney Rice.

The bad idea: “Seattle’s starting 11 might suck, but their 12th man is still a weapon. Too many penalties for Arizona makes for a Seahawks upset!”


Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-2): Falcons

Smart money says: Matt Ryan took a huge step forward last week against Philadelphia, and now has the upstart Bucs to deal with. Both teams are offensively inconsistent, but the home team has lost the last two matchups between these two quarterbacks, a trend that should continue.

The bad idea: “Can’t bet against the Bucs’ fourth quarter comebacks! Look at what they did last week!”


Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago: Packers

Smart money says: Green Bay’s defense disappointed in letting Carolina cover a massive spread in their home stadium. This one is much more reasonable, and Green Bay should win handily.

The bad idea: “The Packers have been beaten deep in week one and week two by the Saints and Panthers. Guess who loves to throw deep? Mike Martz. Bears upset!”


Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis: Colts

Smart money says: Ignore the awfulness of the Colts for a moment. The Steelers are ripe for an “Any Given Sunday” matchup here. They’ve been road favorites by ten points or more three times in the last five years, covering none. They even got beat outright by an awful Chiefs team in 2009. The Steelers are simply not automatic dominators on the road.

The bad idea: “Three words, Colts fans: Suck for Luck.”


Washington at Dallas (-5.5): Redskins

Smart money says: Washington may not be all that trustworthy, but they are healthy, a significant advantage over Dallas. With Romo’s ribcage healing and Miles Austin out, they will be forced to go dink and dunk on offense to protect the QB. Felix Jones will be no help, either. Washington keeps this one close.

The bad idea: “Romo is for real, man. I take back everything I ever said about him. Besides, Rex Grossman??!?!?”


Last week: 8-8 (Got my upset, but blew my lock on the Eagles.)

Total: 14-15-2

 

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