2011 NFL Season At The Halfway Point: How the AFC Will Finish

Midway through 2011, the AFC has been turned upside down. The Buffalo Bills are leading the mighty AFC East, while the Colts are winless. The Cincinnati Bengals have improved their record by ridding themselves of their three best offensive players, while the Raiders turn desperately to one of those castoffs to save their season. The San Diego Chargers have forgone their usual poor start for a slow and disappointing slide toward oblivion, and the Chiefs have come back from a winless start to threaten a title defense.

As Shane points out in his “If the Playoffs Started Today” feature, two teams that failed to make the playoffs in the last decade would be division winners, while the Baltimore Ravens would find themselves on the wrong end of a tiebreaker for a wildcard spot. I don’t see that holding up, but there will be plenty of surprises yet to come.

Who are the truly dominant? Which hot-starting team is doomed to failure? Which slow-starting team has the best chance of making the playoffs? And will the Dolphins or Colts ever win a game?

Read on for a division-by-division look at how the AFC stands, halfway through the season, and where it’s headed next. (Quick links: AFC EAST, AFC NORTH, AFC SOUTH, AFC WEST, PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS)

AFC East

Combined record: 14-14. Combined point differential: +67.

Fred Jackson. Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

1. Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Spotlight: RB Fred Jackson. All eyes are on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the unquestioned leader of this irrepressible band of misfits, but the biggest surprise has been the elevation of Fred Jackson from “CJ Spiller’s placeholder” to “legitimate #1 running back.” While Spiller’s moves dazzled in college ball, Jackson has become one of the most elusive backs in the NFL. Jackson has forced 32 total missed tackles, a number topped only by the Bears’ Matt Forte.

Wins: @KC, OAK, NE, PHI, WAS.
Losses: @CIN, @NYG

Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 26 wins, including 5 upcoming division games.

Critical Test: Week 17 rematch in New England. Buffalo has only one win on the road so far, and this game — improbable as it would have sounded in Week 1 — may decide the division winner.

2. New England Patriots (5-2)

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Spotlight: WR Wes Welker. More and more since the departure of Randy Moss, Welker has become the focal point of the Patriots offense, turning the traditional notion of the slot receiver as a “checkdown” option of the passing game on its ear. Welker currently leads the NFL in targets, receptions and yardage, and has six touchdowns to boot. But being the focal point on offense also makes him the focal point for opposing defenses. Last week, the Steelers took Welker out of the game and made Brady look like he was wearing the Emperor’s new clothes.

Wins: @MIA, SD, @OAK, NYJ, DAL
Losses: @BUF, @PIT

Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 28 wins, including 3 upcoming division games.

Critical Test: Week 10 rematch with the Jets in the Meadowlands. This series swings back and forth as each team adjusts its gameplan to the other. In their first meeting the Pats went unexpectedly run-heavy against Rex Ryan’s receiver-cloaking 3-1-7 defensive front.

3. New York Jets (4-3)

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Spotlight: CB Darrelle Revis. When it comes to Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez, haters gon’ hate. But when you look beyond the obvious focal points of the team, Darrelle Revis’ standout play … well, stands out. The Jets’ shutdown corner signed a huge contract after a mildly disappointing year in 2010, and has responded with one of his strongest performances to date. He has allowed only 10 completed passes (a 30.3% completion rate on 33 targets) all season, while playing nearly every snap. Everything the Jets do on defense hinges on Revis.

Wins: DAL, JAX, MIA, SD
Losses: @OAK, @BAL, @NE

Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 32 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: Week 9, following the bye, at Buffalo. The Jets have yet to win a road game this year, losing to three quality opponents. (Yes, the Raiders were a quality opponent in week 3.) That’s a fast track to an 8-8 record, at best, unless they make a statement soon.

4. Miami Dolphins (0-7)

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Spotlight: LT Jake Long. The 2007 NFL Draft started Long, Long as the Dolphins nabbed premier a left tackle, and the Rams took a high-motor defensive end. While Jake emerged more quickly, Chris Long is now the ascendent of the two. Jake is not performing up to his own high standard in Miami, as he has given up 5 sacks and is currently the 33rd-rated tackle by Pro Football Focus stats. Long has now given up 11 sacks in his last 16 games, after surrendering only 4 in the 24 games before that. As owner Stephen Ross contemplates a total house-cleaning, he’s hearing fan regrets: “Should have drafted Matt Ryan….” Ross wasn’t here for that decision, but at this rate he’ll have his pick of quarterbacks in this year’s draft.

Losses: NE, HOU, @CLE, @SD, @NYJ, DEN, @NYG

Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 36 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: Winnable games in weeks 9-10 at Kansas City and versus Washington. If the Phins drop those, 0-16 is possible. But then, that might be what fans want anyway.

Predicted Winner: Patriots

With five home games left and a relatively easy schedule, the Pats can rebound. But the season could very well come down to that Week 17 matchup with Buffalo. And they’d better do something about that defense.


AFC North

Combined record: 19-12. Combined point differential: +127

Antonio Brown and Mike Williams. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Spotlight: WRs Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. There’s a changing of the guard in Pittsburgh, but like most changes, it’s happening slowly and it might be a while before most people catch on. The Steelers have become a passing team, and Ben Roethlisberger’s new weapons at wide receiver — Mike Wallace as the deep threat and Antonio Brown as the emerging underneath option — can stack up against any starting duo in the league. Hines Ward is still a factor in Pittsburgh as well, the team’s Donald Driver, lengthening his career by continuing to make tough catches and take punishing hits.

Wins: SEA, @IND, TEN, JAX, @ARI, NE
Losses: @BAL, @HOU

Upcoming Schedule: Face 8 teams with a combined 32 wins, including 5 division games.

Critical Test: Home rematch with the Ravens in Week 9. Win and they take a commanding lead in the division. Lose and Baltimore owns a huge tiebreaker advantage with several tough road matchups to come.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

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Spotlight: RB Cedric Benson. Much is made of the immediate chemistry and startling growth of Andy Dalton and AJ Green. But Cedric Benson’s return to full power in his age 28 season is just as noteworthy. As is his return from a one-game suspension this week. Benson’s drive appeared to be stuck in low gear last year, but he opened 2011 with two 100-yard games in the team’s first four, including a 19-carry, 104-yard performance in a huge win over Buffalo. A fresh-legged Benson makes Cincy a potent team.

Wins: @CLE, BUF, @JAX, IND, @SEA
Losses: @DEN, SF

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 36 wins, including 5 division games.

Critical Test: Four consecutive division games in weeks 10-13 will determine Cincinnati’s Cinderella status.

3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

Spotlight: OC Cam Cameron. Joe Flacco had formed a bond with former Ravens quarterbacks coach Jim Zorn, but Zorn is starting to develop a reputation as a coach who does not play well with others. John Harbaugh fired him in January, and expanded the duties of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to fill the gap. As a result, Flacco has regressed mechanically, and the Ravens offense has sputtered for much of the season. It was a problem in September, and it was a problem again in an awful first half against Arizona last week. But someone got in his ear at halftime, and he bounced back to his old form in time to lead a franchise-best 24-point comeback.

Wins: PIT, @STL, NYJ, HOU, ARI
Losses: @TEN, @JAX

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 33 wins, including 5 division games.

Critical Test: Road rematch with the Steelers in Week 9. A must-win game if they want to preserve hope for winning the division.

4. Cleveland Browns (3-4)

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Spotlight: QB Colt McCoy. Remember when Sam Bradford broke the rookie record for pass attempts last year? Pat Shurmur does, and he’s up to his old tricks in Cleveland with Bradford’s Big 12 rival Colt McCoy. The Browns QB ranks fourth in the NFL in pass attempts (286), but 26th in completion percentage (57%) and 32nd in yards per attempt (5.7). Bradford suffered through the same high-volume, short-target pass attack, partially because his receivers were so poor. Sadly, McCoy’s group of pass-catchers is significantly worse.

Wins: @IND, MIA, SEA
Losses: CIN, TEN, @OAK, @SF

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 36 wins, including 5 division games.

Critical Test: Not on the schedule, but in the trainers’ room. Can they fix whatever’s ailing Peyton Hillis? If not, it’ll be a long season.

Predicted Winner: Steelers

Pittsburgh is tough to bet against with their offense getting on track, even with age and injuries piling upon the defensive side. The Ravens could make a run, but Flacco’s inconsistencies will  kill this team’s chances.


AFC South

Combined record: 11-20. Combined point differential: -141

Kevin Walter. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

1. Houston Texans (5-3)

Spotlight: WR Kevin Walter. The rangy Texans receiver, a ninth-year pro, seemed almost ready for the pasture in Houston. With the offense running through Andre Johnson and Ben Tate early on, Walter got only six targets in the season’s first four weeks. But then Johnson gimped up, and Walter has since become Matt Schaub’s most reliable target. He has 19 catches and a TD on 29 targets in the last four weeks. Walter’s steady presence fills an enormous void that brick-handed Jacoby Jones seemingly could not, helping the Texans ride out a rough patch and secure an early hold on first place.

Wins: IND, @MIA, PIT, @TEN, JAX
Losses: @NOR, OAK, @BAL

Upcoming Schedule: Faces 8 teams with a combined 24 wins, including 3 division games.

Critical Test: Week 13, hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Not because Schaub got his start in a Falcons uni, but because Atlanta represents the closest thing to a playoff-caliber team left on the Texans’ schedule.

2. Tennessee Titans (4-3)

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Spotlight: RB Javon Ringer. CJ2K’s backup has become a fantasy player’s worst nightmare — except for Johnson himself, that is. With Chris Johnson following the Larry Johnson career path, but too well-paid to become a backup, Johnson is now ceding half his workload to Ringer. Before long, Ringer’s slice of the pie might get even bigger. He is nowhere near as dynamic as Johnson was in his prime, but he can at least hit the hole and make positive yardage, and give opposing defenses a reason not to just pass-rush Matt Hasselbeck into oblivion.

Wins: BAL, DEN, @CLE, IND
Losses: @JAX, @PIT, HOU

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 32 wins, including 3 division games.

Critical Test: Week 9 vs Cincinnati. After one big upset early, the Titans have only been able to beat the teams they should. This is a legitimacy game, with the winner getting some and the loser losing some.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

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Spotlight: LB Paul Posluszny. The Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, but now are a legitimate top-ten unit. They rank seventh in total defense, and tenth in points allowed. The biggest difference-maker? Importing tackle-machine Paul Posluszny at middle linebacker. Buffalo surprised a few folks by letting Pos walk after four years, especially considering he racked up at least 110 tackles in each of the last three. He’s on pace for 132, and has helped toughen up the team as a whole. Ironically, Buffalo signed the man Pos replaced in Jacksonville… but has only given him 19 snaps on the season.

Wins: @TEN, BAL
Losses: @NYJ, @CAR, NOR, CIN, @PIT, @HOU

Upcoming Schedule: Face 8 teams with a combined 24 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: They may have already passed it. With the most difficult part of the schedule gone, Jacksonville is positioned to go on a nice little second-half surge.

4. Indianapolis Colts (0-8)

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Spotlight: WR Reggie Wayne. After this season, Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne will be all but blood brothers, incredible talents linked by common tragedy… total implosion at the quarterback position. Whether it’s John Skelton and Max Hall or Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter, the results are the same: a shocking dip in catch percentage and overall yardage, and a severe test of your professional mettle. Fitzgerald was the good citizen, never showing up his QB, and running every route all-out. Can Wayne do the same?

Losses: @HOU, CLE, PIT, @TB, KC, @CIN, @NO, @TEN

Upcoming Schedule: Face 8 teams with a combined 28 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: Week 11: BYE. If you’re going to fire Jim Caldwell midseason, and by all accounts the Colts should as soon as possible, it will happen here. It may not make a difference either way, though. This team is not good.

Predicted Winner: Texans

The stars have finally aligned for Houston. The schedule is criminally easy, the key offensive cogs are in place and running a strong, familiar scheme, and the depth of talent is finally there.


AFC West

Combined record: 14-14. Combined point differential: -125

Norv Turner. Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

1. San Diego Chargers (4-3)

Spotlight: HC Norv Turner. You don’t want to say that the game is slipping away from Norv Turner, as strong an offensive mind as there is in the business. But you have to wonder if he ever should have been named head coach to begin with. The Chargers’ will to battle has been questioned more than it hasn’t during Turner’s tenure. It might be asking too much for an old dog to learn new motivational tricks.

Wins: MIN, KC, MIA, @DEN
Losses: @NE, @NYJ, @KC

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 39 wins, including 3 division games.

Critical Test: Pick a week. They have yet to earn a win over a quality opponent this season, and face a brutal back stretch of the schedule.

2. Oakland Raiders (4-3)

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Spotlight: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. If there was an Alex Smith of the receiving world, Hey-Bey might be it. He was drafted way over his station and to the immediate disdain of the sports media everywhere. He struggled right away, and then he got worse. Then coaching and talent changes start happening all around him. But this year, the light has come on. He leads the team’s receivers in snaps, his catch percentage is suddenly a respectable 60%, and his 16.1 yards-per-reception average is a career best. Now all he has to do is hope Carson Palmer still has the arm to find him downfield.

Wins: @DEN, NYJ, @HOU, CLE
Losses: @BUF, NE, KC

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 33 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: Week 10 at San Diego, on a Thursday night in prime time. This could be a death-punch for the hated Chargers, but it means another short week of practice for Carson Palmer, who is trying to shake the rust off, and less rest for Darren McFadden, who has been significantly dinged up.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)

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Spotlight: CB Brandon Flowers. Lost in the caterwauling over the injury to Jamaal Charles in Kansas City was that they lost a huge part of their secondary, Eric Berry, the week before. (And Tony Moeaki the week before that.) Berry’s loss meant less help for the Chiefs’ number one cornerback, the underrated Brandon Flowers. But Flowers has held up well, allowing only 52% of passes thrown his way, and is currently tied for second in the league with 4 INTs. His career high is five, in 2009. He may not be the best player on defense — that honor is split between Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson — but he might be the most necessary right now.  

Wins: MIN, @IND, @OAK, SD
Losses: BUF, DET, @SD

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 34 wins, including 3 division games.

Critical Test: Week 16 rematch vs Oakland. Whether the Raiders will have righted the ship, this rivalry is always intense. And for Kansas City, it could be a crucial part of a second-half run toward an AFC West title defense.

4. Denver Broncos (2-5)

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Spotlight: LB Von Miller. 6 sacks. 6 more quarterback hits. Add 13 more pressures on top of that. Pretty good for a rookie pass rusher, on par with Aldon Smith in San Francisco. But then consider that Miller plays as a true three-down linebacker, has played the second-most snaps on defense, has 18 “stops” while playing the running game, has forced a pair of fumbles, and has yet to miss a single tackle. Then consider his supporting cast, or lack thereof. In Pro Football Focus’ rankings, Miller doesn’t just lead all rookies at the position, he is the highest rated 4-3 outside linebacker, period.

Wins: CIN, @MIA
Losses: OAK, @TEN, @GB, SD, DET

Upcoming Schedule: Face 9 teams with a combined 37 wins, including 4 division games.

Critical Test: The aftermath of week 17. Does John Fox really have the patience and fortitude to go through another rebuild all over again? If anything, these Broncos might be worse off than the 1-15 Panthers he took over in 2002.

Predicted Winner: Chiefs

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs will miraculously repeat as division champions. I would never have believed it after September, but there’s absolutely no way super-soft San Diego or creaky Oakland gets there, so who else am I going to pick? Tebow?


Playoff Picture: 

  1. Patriots (bye)
  2. Texans (bye)
  3. Steelers
  4. Chiefs
  5. Bills (wildcard)
  6. Ravens (wildcard)

And how’s this for a playoff scenario: Steelers and Ravens meet up for a third time in epic combat, with Pittsburgh emerging bloodied but victorious. Meanwhile the Bills romp over the Chiefs for their first playoff win since the Marv Levy era. Bills follow that up by upsetting the Patriots again in a now red-hot AFC East rivalry, while the Steelers put down the happy-to-be-here Texans. Sadly, Buffalo’s Cinderella run ends in the conference championships, but not before a fantastic matchup of “good vs evil.” Too bad for the forces of good, but Pittsburgh likes wearing the black hat.

Headed to the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers 

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