This year’s NFC has been defined by early-season disappointments, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons failing to follow up promising seasons and even more promising offseasons. However, both teams are getting back on track and could become major forces in their divisional races before the season is out.
Meanwhile, the conference’s biggest surprises are in San Francisco, where Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers playing leaner and meaner than at any point in the last ten years, and Detroit, where a healthy Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are lighting up the league. Will either team take the next step to becoming dangerous postseason opponents?
Here is how the NFC will finish. (Quick links: NFC EAST, NFC NORTH, NFC SOUTH, NFC WEST, PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS)
NFC East
Combined record: 14-14. Combined point differential: +8.
1. New York Giants (5-2)
Spotlight: WR Victor Cruz. You can dog Eli Manning all you want — and we do it quite a lot here at TGS — but he has one thing going for him. The Giants’ front office has a sterling track record recently of drafting impact receivers on the cheap. They clearly have a mold they’re looking for — big and strong. Cruz joins Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden as recent draft picks who aren’t going to beat you with speed, but can outmuscle you for the ball and break tackles.
Wins: STL, @PHI, @ARI, BUF, MIA
Losses: @WAS, @SEA
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 39 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 10 at Candlestick against the 49ers. The Giants’ only losses have come on the road so far, and they face a very good team in San Francisco. Winning this matchup could be enough to solidify their hold on the division.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
Spotlight: DE Trent Cole. The Rams’ Chris Long leads the NFL in pressuring the quarterback (27), but Trent Cole (23) is right up there with him despite missing three games. Cole was already a complete defensive end, but he has been unleashed in the Eages’ new wide-9 set. Despite missing two games, Cole ranks among the top three defensive ends in pressures. And this year, he has help in Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins. Vick is doing what he can, but the Eagles’ defensive front will be key to their comeback hopes.
Wins: @STL, @WAS, @DAL
Losses: @ATL, NYG, SF, BUF
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 27 wins, including 3 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 12 vs the Patriots. The Eagles know they need a perfect run through their remaining division games, but they’ll also need to pick up quality wins outside their division if they hope to make up two games on the Giants. This one is a must win.
3. Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
Spotlight: LB Sean Lee. Few casual fans know his name, but those that watch the Cowboys closely might be about to find out just how valuable the young middle linebacker is… as he prepares to miss significant time with a dislocated wrist. The biggest improvement Rob Ryan has brought to the Cowboys is in improving their run defense (12th in 2010 to 4th in 2011), and Lee is graded as Dallas’ top defender against the run.
Wins: @SF, WAS, STL.
Losses: @NYJ, DET, @NE, @PHI
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 27 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 13 at the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys finish the schedule with four games with playoff implications (NYG x2, PHI, @TB), but first they need to take care of business against lesser opponents. They have been as guilty as anyone of looking past their current opponent and getting beat stupidly, particularly in December.
4. Washington Redskins (3-4)
Spotlight: RT Jammal Brown. Brown was given a new five year contract at age 30. His honeymoon period lasted all of two games. He gave up 3 sacks in a come-from-ahead loss to the Cowboys, including the game-ending strip-sack of Rex Grossman. Once considered to be an above average tackle, Brown is now ranked 65th of 73 tackles by Pro Football Focus. He has given up seven sacks in seven games, added four penalties, and can’t establish himself in the run game either. Neither Beck nor Grossman will have much chance if this continues.
Wins: NYG, ARI, @STL
Losses: @DAL, PHI, @CAR, @BUF
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 30 wins, including 3 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 10 at Miami against the Dolphins. They may not be sharks, but the winless Dolphins smell blood in the water. The Redskins have talent in places, but they are an eminently beatable team.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Nearly everything will have to go right for the Eagles to win the division, especially with only one game left against the division-leading Giants. But if any team can flip the switch, they can, and their remaining schedule is much friendlier than New York’s.
NFC North
Combined record: 19-11. Combined point differential: +174.
1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)
Spotlight: RT Bryan Bulaga. If you summed up the amount of pressure Bryan Bulaga gave up in his rookie season, and gave it to one pass-rusher, he’d have a Pro Bowl caliber season. Bulaga was beaten for 12 sacks, 4 QB hits, and 24 pressures. But once the playoffs started, he locked down his game, giving up just one sack in the postseason. The switch has stayed on so far this year: he is keeping his quarterback clean with no sacks and no hits to his name. Now his only concern is staying healthy.
Wins: NO, @CAR, @CHI, DEN, @ATL, STL, @MIN
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 39 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 12 at Detroit. The Lions’ defensive line was built with the Packers in mind, and Green Bay’s pass defense has been porous against better quarterbacks. This should be a great matchup.
2. Detroit Lions (6-2)
Spotlight: DE Cliff Avril. The unsung member of the Lions’ defensive line has benefited greatly from lining up next to Ndamukong Suh. After Avril amassed only 5 sacks per season in his first two years, that number jumped up to 8.5 in Suh’s rookie season, and he is on pace for 10 sacks this year. Avril and Suh have each registered 17 pressures, creating a consistent overload of pocket pressure from inside and out.
Wins: @TB, KC, @MIN, @DAL, CHI, @DEN
Losses: SF, ATL
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 8 teams with a combined 35 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 17 vs Green Bay. The Lions are perfect on the road so far, and will likely have a playoff spot riding on this game.
3. Chicago Bears (4-3)
Spotlight: WR Roy Williams. Matt Forte has built a legitimate MVP-worthy season based on one simple thing — he’s the Bears’ only reliable option for moving the ball. But the much-maligned Williams could be another. He is the only Bears receiver with a catch percentage better than 57%, and is nearly perfect on intermediate routes (8 for 9, 142 yards, 1 TD)
Wins: ATL, CAR, MIN, @TB
Losses: @NO, GB, @DET,
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 34 wins, including 3 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 9 at Philadelphia. It will be tough enough to win a playoff spot even if they are perfect in their remaining three conference games. Chicago must take down a big road opponent to keep playoff dreams alive.
4. Minnesota Vikings (2-6)
Spotlight: QB Christian Ponder. The Vikings have been the unfortunate punching bag of the league’s best division, but Christian Ponder gives them legitimate hope for the future. Perhaps the least-heralded of the incoming quarterbacks class, held back by a so-so Florida State team, Ponder is trying to prove he belongs in the conversation with this year’s phenomenal rookie class. Beating fellow rookie Cam Newton is one way to do it.
Wins: ARI, @CAR
Losses: @SD, TB, DET, @KC, @CHI, GB
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 8 teams with a combined 35 wins, including 3 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 17 vs Chicago. Division wins will be hard to come by this year, and this is their best chance to salvage some pride from this season.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
The Lions are giving impressive chase, and should also be formidable as a wildcard. But if the Packers keep playing at this level, they won’t be challenged until deep into the playoffs.
NFC South
Combined record: 15-15. Combined point differential: +8.
1. New Orleans Saints (5-3)
Spotlight: SS Roman Harper. At age 29, Harper already has gray hairs dotting his head, the wages of being the last line of defense for a team constantly having to defend deep passes from desperate opponents. He is leading the team in tackles — again — and sacks, and hasn’t given up a pass completion in four games. However, he was victimized repeatedly by Green Bay in the season opener… with his game goes the Saints’ defense.
Wins: CHI, HOU, @JAX, @CAR, IND
Losses: @GB, @TB, @STL
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 8 teams with a combined 31 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 10 at Atlanta. New Orleans has yet to tally a quality road win, and had their mojo severely shaken by a Week 8 loss in St Louis. They need to reassert themselves.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)
Spotlight: WR Mike Williams. Of the top 110 receivers rated by Pro Football Focus, Mike Williams rates 106th. Sophomore slump indeed. He is this team’s unquestioned #1 receiver, having played all but five snaps on the season, but has only a 51.7% catch rate. The Bucs badly need him to step up, especially with yet another sinkhole opening under their running game.
Wins: @MIN, ATL, IND, NO
Losses: DET, @SF, CHI
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 34 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 11 at Green Bay. This is the last cold-weather game on the schedule, and a chance for the Bucs to shock some people. They have yet to put together a complete game, but if they do, they could spoil the Packers’ perfect season and take a huge step forward themselves.
3. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
Spotlight: RG Garrett Reynolds. Last year, Harvey Dahl was the Falcons’ most effective lineman, but he was signed away for big money by the Rams. Dahl’s replacement, Reynolds, has struggled somewhat anonymously in his place, but the Lions’ defensive tackles flat-out abused him in Week 7. He gave up a sack and two pressures, and had three penalties called against him. He’ll have to shore up his game before he becomes a focal point for opposing defenses.
Wins: PHI, @SEA, CAR, @DET
Losses: @CHI, TB, GB
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 29 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 16 at New Orleans. The Falcons have a very accommodating back stretch of the schedule, and this game could result in taking over the division lead. Massive game with another one against the Bucs to follow immediately after.
4. Carolina Panthers (2-6)
Spotlight: WR Steve Smith. I don’t think we could possibly say enough about how well Smith is playing this year, or how completely reborn he appears with Cam Newton at quarterback. Like usual, he is the only quality receiver in Carolina, but even with opposing defenses focusing all their attention on him, he manages to get open and make enormous game-changing plays. If a few of these close losses had been wins, Smith would be getting legitimate MVP consideration.
Wins: JAX, WAS
Losses: @ARI, GB, @CHI, NO, @ATL, MIN
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 8 teams with a combined 32 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 13 at Tampa Bay. The Panthers swept this series in 2009, only to get swept last season. While the Bucs struggle to keep their offense on track, this could be a statement game for Cam and company.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
The Saints have been hit and miss, and face a tough schedule down the stretch. With the Falcons only a half game behind and getting Julio Jones back, this is anyone’s race.
NFC West
Combined record: 10-18. Combined point differential: -118.
1. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)
Spotlight: RB Frank Gore. Three weeks into the season, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry, Gore appeared to be done. Since then? 81 carries for 527 yards, a ridiculous 6.5 yard per carry average, and four touchdowns. 28-year-old legs never looked so good. However, the Niners have to be concerned with keeping their big back healthy. He has not played a complete season since 2006, and no other team has as many wins riding on one player as the Niners do on Gore.
Wins: SEA, @CIN, @PHI, TB, @DET, CLE
Losses: DAL,
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 22 wins, including 5 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 12 at Baltimore. Thanks to playing in the NFC West, the Niners have very few quality opponents left on the schedule. They may end up with an easy path to a bye, but will have few chances to prove they are a legitimate playoff threat.
2. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
Spotlight: RB Frank Gore. Three weeks into the season, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry, Gore appeared to be done. Since then? 81 carries for 527 yards, a ridiculous 6.5 yard per carry average, and four touchdowns. 28-year-old legs never looked so good. However, the Niners have to be concerned with keeping their big back healthy. He has not played a complete season since 2006, and no other team has as many wins riding on one player as the Niners do on Gore.
Wins: ARI, @NYG
Losses: @SF, @PIT, ATL, @CLE, CIN
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 27 wins, including 4 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 14 vs the Rams on Monday Night Football. Last year’s highly-rated Week 17 finale between these two teams prompted ESPN to make the rematch into a prime time show. Both teams will want to bring their A+ game for this. The result might be only a C broadcast, but that’s better than it could be.
3. Arizona Cardinals (1-7)
Spotlight: HC Ken Whisenhunt. The former offensive wizard of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who helped add an aggressive passing element to their traditional ground-and-pound approach, has been hamstrung by the loss of Kurt Warner, and by the team’s failure to replicate Pittsburgh’s dominant defense. Now with the Cardinals’ $30 million dollar investment in Kevin Kolb looking like a long-term dud, Whisenhunt may be tempted to take himself out of the picture and move on to a healthier environment to rebuild his tarnished reputation.
Wins: CAR
Losses: @WAS, @SEA, NYG, @MIN, PIT, @BAL
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 8 teams with a combined 30 wins, including 5 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 9 vs St Louis. If they can’t beat a fellow 1-win NFC West opponent, the Cardinals could be very much in line for an Andrew Luck chase, Kolb contract or not.
4. St Louis Rams (1-6)
Spotlight: WR Brandon Lloyd. The Rams treated the abbreviated free agency period like a housewife on Black Friday, scouring every available market for cheap talent. They added a number of players on one-year deals, but none may be more important to the team’s future than Brandon Lloyd, acquired by trade two weeks ago. Lloyd gives Sam Bradford a legit #1 receiver, and gives offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels a veteran well-versed in his offensive concepts. Success for Lloyd and Bradford may give McDaniels reason to stick around St Louis when next year’s coaching searches begin, saving Bradford from an Alex Smith-like start to his career.
Wins: NO
Losses: PHI, @NYG, BAL, WAS, @GB, @DAL
Upcoming strength of schedule: Facing 9 teams with a combined 32 wins, including all 6 upcoming division games.
Critical Test: Week 10 at the Browns. Coach Spagnuolo may need to get back to the 7-win mark to save his job, and will need a critical road win over his former offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, in Cleveland.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (duh)
With a four-game lead in the division, their chances of missing the playoffs are almost infinitesimally small. The questions is, what happens when they get there?
NFC Playoff Predictions
- Green Bay Packers (bye)
- San Francisco 49ers (bye)
- Atlanta Falcons
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Detroit Lions (wildcard)
- New York Giants (wildcard)
Playoff Scenario: Eagles-Lions will be one of those first round playoff games that will be talked about all offseason, like the epic Packers-Cardinals game of two years ago. Detroit’s “Assembly Line of Destruction” will follow last year’s script against Philly, raining down punishment on Michael Vick, but Philly’s tremendous secondary makes enough plays to keep the game close, and LeSean McCoy makes the difference in the win. Meanwhile, the Giants run roughshod over the Falcons, who still lack that playoff toughness. New York’s big receivers give the Packers’ secondary fits, but Green Bay’s overall excellence is too much to handle. Meanwhile, Philadelphia avenges their regular season loss to San Fran with a big upset win, as Alex Smith’s limitations are finally exposed. Packers put an end to Philadelphia’s impressive run back to respectability, though, as a weaker-than-usual Nnamdi Asomugha is finally exposed.
Notably missing from this scenario? The Saints, who fall just short of the wildcard. It’s unknown whether they will be more haunted by their week one loss (one yard short) or week 8’s surprising loss to the winless Rams.
