The New Orleans Saints managed to outscore the potent offense of the Detroit Lions; for their next test, can they out-defend the freakishly stingy San Francisco 49ers? Drew Brees and company get ready to leave the comfortable confines of the dome, and take the NFL’s most dangerous offense on the road as they continue their playoff journey.
We check back in with Andrew Juge of The Saints Nation on the Bloguin NFL network for his pregame thoughts. (For a look back, he offered an eerily prescient prediction of the Saints-Lions matchup.)
TGS: First of all, congratulations on dispatching the Lions in the first round, and putting on an offensive show in the process. Did you learn anything new about this year’s Saints in the process?
Juge: Well I don’t think I can learn much about the Saints at this point after studying the roster in and out for decades and watching this team play their 17th game this season… but I did learn just how unstoppable Megatron is. Stafford literally just throws the ball in his general direction and Calvin Johnson makes all the plays. That guy really is something special. Truly unstoppable. He’s better than Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, perhaps even combined, and I don’t say that about many receivers.
More specifically to your question, it re-confirmed to me that the only team that’s capable of stopping the Saints’ offense is the Saints’ offense.
TGS: If the Saints start slow again (as might be expected vs San Francisco’s defense), Gregg Williams’ D will play a big role. How will he attack Jim Harbaugh’s offense?
Juge: The Saints are going to be committed to stopping the run. The 49ers are clearly going to attempt to establish Frank Gore, there are no secrets here. Considering what the Saints’ have yielded to leading rushers lately I feel okay.
Since their bye week: Brandon Jacobs 46 yards, Kevin Smith 34 yards, Chris Johnson 23 yards, Adrian Peterson 60 yards, Michael Turner 39 yards, DeAngelo Williams 53 yards and Kevin Smith 32 yards. Some of those backs are pretty darn good, and the Saints haven’t given up a 100 yard rusher since Steven Jackson in week 8.
Assuming they are able to get Alex Smith in positions of 3rd and more than 4, I feel great about their ability to get off the field. The key matchup in those situations will be covering Vernon Davis, as the Saints have struggled in the past stopping explosive receiving tight ends.
TGS: The Saints played less well on the road this season than at home, where they were pretty much unstoppable. Will the elements be a factor for this team?
Juge: I’ve actually been paying attention to the weather each day (a little pathetic, I know). The forecasts have been pretty consistent all week: high’s in the mid 60’s, sunny, no rain threat and no wind really. Considering all the places you could go on the road in January, you can’t ask for more perfect conditions.
When you’re a pass first team I think you worry about things like rain, wind and temperature and fortunately it doesn’t seem like any of those things will be a factor. Certainly crowd noise and unfamiliar surroundings will be a challenge, but in the grand scheme of things I’d much rather be playing in San Francisco than at least 4 or 5 other NFC sites.
Obviously when you’re on the road, the key is to avoid mistakes by your offensive line especially. False starts, missed line audibles etc… those are the things you really want to focus on avoiding.
TGS: San Francisco has added a potent pass rush element to an already sound defense, but the Saints’ OL gives Drew Brees some of the best protection in the game. Shine the spotlight on the men in the middle for us. Is it talent, scheme, or both?
Juge: I’d say it’s a combination of four things. 1. Scheme, 2 Talent, 3. Drew Brees’ quick release, 4. Drew Brees’ footwork in the pocket.
I truly believe Brees could make a horrible line look better just due to the fact that he gets the ball out so quickly, and his footwork is so sound and he feels pressure so well he’s able to buy himself more time with his superior technique and feel.
The Saints to their credit have really harped on bringing in intelligent players that play with a high football IQ and “get it”. So their ability to understand a complex scheme is heightened, even if they don’t have the best talent. The way they move together is incredible. The coaches also do a great job of incorporating chips and double teams into the scheme when they see a potential mismatch on tape.
If you look at the guys on the line, Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans is arguably one of the best two guard tandems in NFL history. Beyond that, though, there’s nothing special about Bushrod, De La Puente or Strief. All three of those guys have performed above expectations and they all do a solid job, but they are far from “elite” NFL players. I will say they understand the scheme well, they’re intelligent, and they benefit from good coaching, one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and maybe having the best 2 guards in the NFL next to them. But if you put the same line in front of Ben Roethlisberger they would give up way more sacks, no doubt about it.
TGS: How do you beat the 49ers?
Juge: The 49ers are very good on defense, very good on special teams, and strong at running the football. They are improving in the pass game and they do so efficiently, but that’s their clear weakness. The key is to stop Frank Gore and force the 49ers into positions where they have to make plays with their passing game, which is what they are least comfortable doing. That’s not an easy thing to do, but I feel good about the Saints’ run defense and I think this matchup is a decent one.
While the 49ers are very good defensively, and probably the best defense the Saints have faced all season (on the road no less), we’re still talking about the best offense in NFL history. Yardage wise that’s a fact and cannot be disputed. I firmly contend the 49ers can’t stop the Saints. The Saints can only stop themselves with mistakes. You cannot stop the Saints’ offense with the multitude of weapons they have and Drew Brees operating it.
So on offense I think you stay aggressive, but you focus on avoiding turnovers, penalties and mental errors. No defense in the league is good enough to “shut down” the Saints’ offense. The only way you’re getting off the field is turnovers or good fortune due to miscues.
TGS: What’s your game prediction?
Juge: Saints 38, 49ers 24.
I think you see a close, low scoring game at halftime, with the Saints up maybe 10-7, something like that as both teams feel each other each out (ew)… and then you see the game opening up in the second half with the Saints making a number of big plays. The 49ers will go down a few scores and be forced to pass, and they’ll convert some big plays doing that, but Alex Smith will make critical mistakes with the ball in his hands down the stretch to preserve the Saints’ lead.
I know any 49er fan reading this is thinking “no way they score 38 on us in our house.” Believe me, I know your defense is very good. But this Saints’ offense is from another planet.
Our thanks to Andrew for his insights. You can read more of his analysis at TheSaintsNation.com on the Bloguin NFL Network, and you can find him on Twitter at @gosaintsnation
