No one does parity like the NFL does, the sport that inspired the phrase “Any Given Sunday” to describe the possibility of the lowliest team rising up and beating one of the league’s juggernauts. Maybe it’s our fault for starting the This Given Sunday blog, but there were a LOT of those Sundays this season.
Here’s a run-down of the biggest upsets of the 2011 season so far, starting with Buffalo’s shocker over New England in Week 3, and running up to the Denver Broncos’ thrilling overtime wildcard win in Pittsburgh. With three more weeks left in the season, is there room for at least one more? (I know Tim Tebow sure hopes so.)
These upsets break down into a few classes: teams that surprised us early but turned out to be better than we thought; total fluke victories; and teams that played the radically overhyped Philadelphia Eagles. Read on for the full list.
Chapter 1: The Surprise Teams
W
eek 3: Buffalo 34, New England 31.
(NE favored by 8.5 on the road)
While the first two weeks of the season contained some great early drama, including teams like the Lions, Raiders and 49ers showing some surprising early strength, no early season victory was more thrilling than Buffalo’s frenzied slugfest with New England. The Bills and Patriots offenses dueled like two middleweight boxers, eschewing caution to fly around and launch massive shots at each other.
The game started out like most Patriots-Bills games: as a Pats blowout. Early mistakes by Fitzpatrick and his receivers helped the Pats to a 21-0 advantage, and no doubt several disgusted Buffalo fans thought about changing the channel. But Fitzpatrick rallied his team to two quick scores to end the first half 21-10.
Then, all hell broke loose in the second half. The Bills created four turnovers off of Tom Brady, and Fitzpatrick found Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson, and little-used tight end Scott Chandler open all over the field.
For a brief time, the Bills were in the AFC East lead, and looked like they were for real. But that time would run out when Jackson’s season was lost. With it went Fitzpatrick’s mojo, and Chan Gailey’s coach of the year consideration.
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Week 5: Seattle 36, NY Giants 25
(NYG favored by 9.5 at home)
No, the Seahawks didn’t make the playoffs. But they surprised just about everyone by staying in wildcard contention until the season’s final week, considering that they had one of the weakest-looking quarterback rotations in football, and lost Sidney Rice for an extended period of time.
Pete Carroll’s team starting showing life once Tarvaris Jackson came off the trainer’s table, as the former Viking was able to thrive in new offensive coordinator Dick Bevell’s scheme. However, Jackson was sidelined again midway through this matchup, and Charlie Whitehurst had to take the team to the finish line.
The game was a coming-out party for two young receivers that would become forces in this season: the Giants’ Victor Cruz and the Seahawks’ undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin. Both caught eight passes for a combined 297 yards and two touchdowns in an aerial thrill-ride. The difference for the Seahawks, though, was in their bright young secondary. Brandon Browner, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas each intercepted Manning, negating a massive passing day for the Giants quarterback, and sealing a massive road upset.
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Week 9: NY Giants 24, New England 20
(NE favored by 8.5 at home
The Brady-Manning rematch of Super Bowl XLII turned out to live up to its phenomenal billing. To this point, and for much of the season, the Giants had struggled to mount any kind of consistency, and the Patriots had reestablished their offensive dominance despite a still-leaky defense.
Normally, when the Giants pull off a big upset, it’s when Eli Manning is playing on top of his game. That wasn’t the case on this day, as he completed only 20 of 39 passes for a TD and a pick. But the New York defense created their own luck, intercepting Brady twice to keep them in the game.
After struggling to put points on the board, both teams ended the fourth quarter with a flurry of points. Manning had the last laugh, though, throwing a game-winning touchdown with just nineteen seconds left on the clock.
For those hoping for a true Super Bowl rematch between these two teams, it’s still a possibility — if the Giants can knock off the two best teams in the NFC. IF they do, oddmakers might think twice about handing the Patriots a two-score disadvantage. It hasn’t worked out so well for them so far.
~
Week 10: Seattle 22, Baltimore 17
(BAL favored by 6.5 on the road)
There’s a common theme running among these upset losers: bad days by quarterbacks who threw a LOT. Nowhere was this more apparent than in this game, which featured as bad of a gameplan as there was in the NFL this season: asking Joe Flacco to throw the ball 52 times, while handing the ball off to Ray Rice only 5 times.
The talented Seahawks secondary will take that ratio any day. Especially when they can turn around and run a Ravens-style offense down the throat of their defense, using Marshawn Lynch as their battering ram.
Lynch carried the ball 32 times, with a long carry of just 8 yards, but he did amass 109 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, his tough running killed the clock and the chances for a Ravens rally once Flacco finally got in gear.
~
Wildcard Week: Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23
(PIT favored by 8.5 at home)
Covered earlier this week: Tim Tebow still believes in himself, and now a lot of his doubters do too.
Chapter 2: The Fluke Victories
W
eek 7: Jacksonville 12, Baltimore 7.
(BAL favored by 9 on the road)
Baltimore had already lost to one AFC South team on the road, back in Week 2. You’d think they would have been forewarned.
But no, Jack Del Rio’s plucky defense held Flacco to a measly 137 yards passing (44 more than Blaine Gabbert managed) in one of the ugliest offensive games of the year. And in a preview of the events to come against Seattle, the Baltimore gameplan went pass-wacky for no good reason. Flacco’s 38 passes were four times more than Ray Rice’s 8 carries.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, made the most of their one offensive weapon, feeding Maurice Jones-Drew 30 times to set up a series of short scoring drives. A bit of football math for you: four field goals beats one touchdown. Every time.
Unfortunately for the Jags, little in the way of momentum came from this stirring win: they lost four of their next five games, beating only the lowly Colts, and got Jack Del Rio relieved of his duties.
~
Week 8: St Louis 31, New Orleans 21
(NO favored by 13.5 on the road)
You have your fluke wins, and then you have your total jaw-dropping what-the-hell-did-I-just-see wins. This was one of the latter.
The St Louis Rams, winless on the season in seven tries and without their would-be star quarterback Sam Bradford, took on the powerhouse New Orleans Saints, who has just dropped more points on the Colts (62) than the Rams had scored all season (55). Mismatch much?
What we got, though, was Josh McDaniels’ singlemost masterful gameplan of his abbreviated St Louis career. The Rams (with AJ Feeley at quarterback, mind you — AJ Feeley!) took deep shots early to soften up the Saints defense, then displayed a masterful and unpredictable blend of quick passes out of running formations, and delayed runs on passing downs. Steven Jackson ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Feeley tossed a beautiful 30-yard scoring strike to nail the coffin lid down.
Said Rams fans after the game: “Where has that been all year?”
Said those same Rams fans, nine weeks later: “Did that game really happen?”
~
Week 15: Kansas City 19, Green Bay 14. 
(GB favored by 13.5 on the road)
To be honest, there’s no rational explanation for this loss, other than that the Packers just had a lousy day. But if their perfect season was going to be ruined, better here than in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City’s defense had been playing well for weeks, even before Todd Haley and his job security beard was given the boot in favor of Romeo Crennel. And even if the Packers were scuffling, you still have to play extremely well to hold that offense scoreless for an entire half, which is what the Chiefs did.
Aaron Rodgers was a particularly un-Rodgers-like 6 of 17 in the first half for 59 yards and a passer rating of 46.0. (For perspective, he opened the season with 12 consecutive games of 110-plus QB rating days, and obliterated the NFL record mark with a 122.5 rating on the year.)
Meanwhile, Kyle Orton finally got to play a full game as fill-in starter, and did enough to keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands, and to give the Chiefs enough points to win. This win by itself may have been enough to persuade KC to give Romeo Crennel the head coaching job full time.
~
Week 15: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 13
(TEN favored by 6.5 on the road)
Call it redemption for Dan Orlovsky. The Colts last hope at quarterback was last seen piloting the doomed Detroit Lions team that finished the season 0-16, and was now called upon to do whatever it is he could do for a spiritless Colts team. But if every dog has its day, this was his.
Tennessee had not been playing particularly well down the stretch, even though Chris Johnson was running with more authority, but they were given a touchdown spread by Las Vegas as a customary token. This game was supposed to be a freebie, one you could sleepwalk through.
But even against the worst opponents, you still have to tackle. Somehow, the Titans forgot to do that with Donald Brown, who romped for 161 yards on only 16 carries — 118 yards of which came after contact.
We can credit the Colts for showing a spark when all assumed they were laying over dead, but this was nothing less than a stunning letdown for Mike Munchak’s physical Tennessee team.
~
Week 16: Indianapolis 19, Houston 16
(HOU favored by 7 on the road)
Call this one the Hangover, Part II. The Houston Texans had just clinched their first ever division crown and first ever playoff spot with the previous week’s last-second 20-19 win over Cincinnati. TJ Yates led a thrilling fourth quarter comeback in that game … and then watched as Dan Orlovsky and the one-win Colts paid him back in the same coin one week later.
The Colts had their one win done. They would escape the ignominy of joining the short list of winless NFL teams. This one was just for fun, just because the game was there for the taking as the clock ticked down.
It wasn’t the prettiest game for anyone but the few remaining Colts fans and Dan Orlovsky’s mom. Both teams were trading field goals like a pair of schoolchildren trading punches. The score stood at 16-12 when Dan Orlovsky found forgotten man Reggie Wayne with a touchdown pass with 19 seconds left in the game, sealing the win.
However, this was to be the end of the Colts’ shenanigans. With another win in Week 17, they might be in danger of missing out on Andrew Luck and the franchise reboot that was so badly needed. They promptly tanked their last game against Jacksonville, and order was briefly restored to the universe.
Chapter 3: The Philadelphia Eagles’ Chronicle of Suck
It’s still a wonder to me that Andy Reid has a job in Philadelphia, after building a super-team around a healthy Michael Vick and then completely blowing his home schedule. The Eagles finished the season 8-8, one game short of the division-winning Giants. Buried in those standings: a 3-5 record at home, including these four deeply disappointing losses.
Week 3: NY Giants 19, Philadelphia 16.
(PHI favored by 7.5 at home)
Preparing to face the Giants in week 3, Michael Vick was already a beaten man, both physically and emotionally. He took a lot of hits while carrying the offensive load against the Rams in Week 1, and was unmanned by his homecoming in Atlanta in Week 2, arriving as the bad guy against the franchise he once helped save. He threw three interceptions in this game, spurring unrest among the locals, but he wasn’t the culprit. Juan Castillo’s defensive schemes left gaping holes up and down the field, which the Giants took advantage of to put the Eagles in a quick 14-0 hole that Vick could not dig his team out of.
~
Week 4: San Francisco 24, Philadelphia 23.
(PHI favored by 9 at home)
A little revisionist history is in order here, as no one knew then how good San Francisco would be. 23 points (on 491 yards of total offense for Vick) against what would turn out to be the best defense in the NFL was a respectable offensive product… but unfortunately it fell one point short of what they needed. And while the defense wears the goat horns again for allowing the Niners to rally for 21 unanswered second-half points, the simple fact is that the Eagles offense stopped scoring. They had their chances, but placekicker Alex Henery missed two fourth quarter field goals from within 40 yards to ensure the loss.
~
Week 9: Chicago 30, Philadelphia 24.
(PHI favored by 8 at home)
Even at 1-4 after a brutal loss to the Bills in Week 5, there were those still willing to believe. “Best 1-4 team in history” and so forth. And Philadelphia showed a little backbone, climbing back to 3-4 with a pair of wins, making this a must-win game against the Bears. However, it was a must-win game for the Bears, too, as they were making their own case for wildcard consideration. And behind a monster day from Matt Forte and a 10-0 fourth quarter point swing for Chicago, they did just that.
~
Week 10: Arizona 21, Philadelphia 17.
(PHI favored by 14 at home)
At this point, the vultures are circling. The “Fire Andy” chants were percolating in Philadelphia. Beating Arizona wasn’t a must-win, it was a game in which there was simply no option of losing. No chance of losing. Even a 3-5 team should be able to take care of a 2-6 team with John Skelton as its starting quarterback. But it turned out to be a classic case of “nothing to gain, everything to lose” for the Eagles. And it followed a now familiar pattern:
Score points early, then coast. Act shocked when the opponent — a professional team of the NFL — takes advantage of you letting them hang around, and scores buckets of second-half points (14-3 difference in the fourth quarter this time). Shuffle off to your press conference and say as little as possible.
~
Looking back on all four games, and on the Eagles themselves, these losses aren’t that surprising. Disappointing for a team expected to contend at the highest levels, yes. But in reality, it was Las Vegas’ and the betting public’s propensity for heaping money and adulation at the Eagles’ feet that pushed these lines to stratospheric levels. Not one of these opponents finished the season with a losing record, and the 49ers supplanted Philadelphia as a postseason power.
But that said, I believe this Eagles loss to Arizona still stands as the biggest, most profound upset of the year. (With full apologies to the Chiefs and the Packers.) This game completely unmasked the Eagles from contenders to pretenders. From Dream Team to nightmare. It signaled the final reversal of one of the preseason’s biggest storylines.
But as the football sages all say: “That’s why you play the game.”
