Geno Smith will not be drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs unless their deal to bring Alex Smith to Arrowhead falls through. That move sets up a number of possibilities on draft day that revolve around quarterback needy teams.
The Jacksonville Jaguars sit at number two overall, behind the Chiefs. Jacksonville is a quarterback needy team, but they've expressed that they'll be giving Blaine Gabbert the opportunity to win back his starting job in an open quarterback competition. The message between the lines seems to be that the Jaguars won't be taking a quarterback in the first round. You don't draft a quarterback second overall to be in an open competition with the other QBs on the team.
So, the Jaguars have options at second overall, but only one of those options makes much sense. They should open up bidding for Geno Smith. The Raiders pick third overall, the Browns are sixth overall and the Cardinals draft seventh overall, followed immediately by the Bills and Jets. If the Jaguars can get just a couple of those teams willing to go for Geno Smith, it could pay off in a big way.
A trade down to any of the above listed teams would keep Jacksonville in the top ten draft picks, and it would give them more ammunition for later in the draft. The Raiders and Cardinals in particular need someone that can become their quarterback of the future and pitting them against each other seems to be the best option for the Jaguars.
If, however, the Jaguars can't, or don't want to, move out of the second spot and don't pick Smith, the quarterback would almost certainly be taken by the Raiders. Yes, Carson Palmer is serviceable more times than not, but the Raiders need someone young that can get them back on track with enthusiasm. That guy would seem to be Smith.
As I've said before, the draft hinges, at least at the top end, on the Chiefs' ability to add a quarterback. It appears that they have done that with Alex Smith, but until it's a done deal, anything can happen. For the moment, it appears that Geno Smith will not be headed to Kansas City as their franchise quarterback.