AFC playoff picture, Week 13: Historical madness

The National Football League had never seen 11 teams in one conference with winning records after 12 weeks until 2014. This year, the AFC has decided to make an absolute mess of the playoff picture, and with only five games to play for each team, it doesn’t appear anything will be settled soon.

Let’s look at how things stand, and where they may go:

1. New England Patriots (9-2)
2. Denver Broncos (8-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1)
4. Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
6. San Diego Chargers (7-4)

In the hunt:

7. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
9. Cleveland Browns (7-4)
10. Miami Dolphins (6-5)
11. Buffalo Bills (6-5)

OK, so why are the Chiefs and Chargers in at 7-4, but the Steelers, Browns and Ravens are on the outside looking in? Well, tiebreakers start from within the division and work out from there. Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker against Cleveland based on record against common opponents. From there, Baltimore tops Pittsburgh thanks to a cumulative head-to-head win percentage (BAL is 2-1 vs. CLE and PIT … PIT is 2-2 vs. CLE and BAL).

San Diego has a better conference record than the Ravens, and the Chiefs beat the Chargers in their only matchup this season (they play against Week 17 at Arrowhead Stadium).

Miami is ahead of Buffalo via division record, after the two games split their meetings.

Got all that? Fantastic. This week provides us with some very critical matchups, including Browns at Bills, Broncos at Chiefs and Chargers at Ravens. With three of those teams guaranteed to pick up a loss, things will certainly shift around. Should Kansas City top Denver on Sunday Night Football, it would move into a first-place tie for the AFC West but remain a wild-card team due to divisional record.

The only safe bets are the Colts, Patriots and Broncos making the playoffs. New England and Indianapolis are going to win their divisions, with the Patriots almost certain to nab a bye week. The Colts lost to both the Broncos and Patriots, so earning a top-two seed will be tough.

The AFC North might be the key to this puzzle. The Bengals and Steelers play each other twice down the stretch, while the Browns face a tough schedule with the Colts, Bills and Ravens remaining. Cincinnati also host Denver in a Week 16 Monday night contest, and Pittsburgh plays host to Kansas City in Week 16. Baltimore also has key dates against the Chargers this Sunday and the Dolphins in Week 14.

The toughest slate belongs to San Diego. Of all the teams in a playoff spot, the Chargers are the best bet to fall out of the picture with the following schedule: At Baltimore, New England, Denver, at San Francisco, at Kansas City. San Diego could play great and go 2-3 during that gauntlet.

About Matt Verderame

Matt Verderame, 26, is a New Yorker who went to school at the frozen tundra of SUNY Oswego. After graduating, Verderame has worked for Gannett and SB Nation among other ventures.

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