TGS weekly NFL MVP tracker

We’ve been eliminating NFL MVP candidates on a weekly basis this season, and last week we got that list down to just two men — Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. But after Rodgers struggled against the Buffalo Bills, we’re cheating by adding a third name back to the list entering Week 16. And it’s probably not a name you’d expect.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Rodgers appeared to be on the cusp of wrapping this thing up. His 35-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 119.0 passer rating were nearly impossible to deny. But then he went out and put together one of the worst performances of his career in an important December game against the Bills.

In fact, from a passer rating perspective (34.3), it was indeed the worst outing of his professional career. Rodgers was just 17 of 42 for 185 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) while throwing zero touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s still the NFL’s highest-rated passer, but only by a tiny margin, and his completion percentage (64.0) ranks out of the top 10.

Another mediocre performance and Rodgers will lose this thing.

2. J.J. Watt, Texans

That’s because Watt continues to breathe down his neck. The Houston defensive end had two more sacks and 12 more quarterback pressures against the Indianapolis Colts, earning another sky-high Pro Football Focus grade in a losing effort.

That last clause might be the key, though, because the Texans continue to lose. The voters haven’t given the MVP to a defensive player in nearly 30 years, so it’s hard to imagine them giving it to a defensive player on a non-playoff team. Still, if Watt can get to 20 sacks for the second time in his career (with seven in his last three games, he’s at 16.5 right now), it’ll be hard to keep this thing from the 25-year-old.

3. Tony Romo, Cowboys

With Rodgers coming back to earth, Romo becomes the NFL’s hottest quarterback. The last two weeks, he’s completed over 75 percent of his passes and has a passer rating of 134.4 as he carries the Dallas offense. The Cowboys have won both of those games and are back in the NFC East lead.

A lot of people have trouble viewing Romo as an MVP candidate. Part of that has to do with a false narrative that has been constructed regarding Romo’s habit of choking. That deserves no credence. The other part is that Romo has one of the best supporting casts in football. However, that’s also true of Rodgers’ situation and it’s not as though his stud back, DeMarco Murray, played well in that huge Week 15 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

I’ll leave you with some scary numbers, which were taken from a table I created over at Bleacher Report:

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About Brad Gagnon

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. Based in Toronto, he's worked as a national NFL blog editor at theScore.com (covering Super Bowls XLIV, XLV and XLVI), a producer and writer at theScore Television Network and a host, reporter and play-by-play voice at Rogers TV. His work has also appeared at Deadspin, FoxSports.com, The Guardian, The Hockey News and elsewhere at Bloguin, but his day gig has him covering all things NFC East for Bleacher Report.

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