The AFC North will regress in 2015

In 2015, the AFC North was the only division in either conference to have three playoff teams emerge. The Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens all made the postseason, with the Cleveland Browns finishing a competitive fourth at 7-9.

Don’t expect more than the division winner to make it back in 2015.

The AFC North benefited from an incredibly easy schedule. Outside of inner-division play, the North had the luxury of facing the AFC South and NFC South, the two worst divisions in football. If you aren’t sure about how bad they are, the Carolina Panthers won the division crown with a 7-8-1 record in the NFC South, while the AFC South featured a Houston Texans team that finished second with a quarterbacking trio of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Case Keenum.

In 2015, the AFC North will draw the AFC and NFC Western divisions. It will be a tougher challenge, drawing the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. Even the St. Louis Rams are a respectable team, while the Oakland Raiders have new leadership in head coach Jack Del Rio.

Pittsburgh will also draw a first-place schedule, giving it the additional pleasure of facing the Indianapolis Colts at home and the New England Patriots at home. Outside of Cleveland, Oakland and St. Louis, the Steelers will not face a team which had a losing record in 2014. By comparison, Pittsburgh played eight teams under .500 this season.

The Bengals have a home schedule including their divisional opponents along with the Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Seahawks and Texans. Even with solid showings, it might be tough to be much better than 5-3. Factor in road dates with the Steelers, Ravens, 49ers, Broncos, Rams, Cardinals and Bills, and it isn’t hard to envision an 8-8 season. The same can be said for Baltimore, which shares the same home and road opponents as Cincinnati, sans the differences caused by the second and third-place schedules (the Ravens get the Miami Dolphins away and the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, while the Bengals get the Bills at home and the Texans away).

It will also be hard for the Steelers and Ravens to improve. Both teams are aging and against the salary cap. According to Over the Cap, Pittsburgh is actually above the threshold while Baltimore has $4.1 million available. Cleveland has the most cap space in the division at $49.4 million, but does not have a quality quarterback. Cincinnati is in the best overall position with a solid roster and $34.3 million of space. The problem for the Bengals is a mediocre quarterback/coach combination in Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis, along with notoriously cheap ownership.

The AFC North had plenty of success this season. Don’t expect it to continue.

About Matt Verderame

Matt Verderame, 26, is a New Yorker who went to school at the frozen tundra of SUNY Oswego. After graduating, Verderame has worked for Gannett and SB Nation among other ventures.

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