Week one matchup could feature Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota

The topic has been danced around here and there, but post draft the table is now set for the possibility of the top two drafted players facing off in a week 1 season opener. That would of course be two quarterbacks, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston (drafted from Florida State) and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota (Oregon). Indeed the Bucs are scheduled to host the Titans in week 1 at 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 13th. Much still needs to happen for either player to start on 9/13, though, and the most significant road blocks are Mike Glennon and Zach Mettenberger. One has to assume the NFL schedule makers paired this matchup for week 1 with the idea of Mariota vs. Winston being a distinct possibility, though. And you can imagine the national interest should both players end preseason atop their respective depth charts.

Should they start, it will be fun to see how they perform against each other head to head when you consider how much they’ve been compared to each other for the better part of the last year. Prized 1st round rookie quarterbacks in their first start tend to be protected with a conservative gameplan, so it will be interesting to see how this game is called. And while the ceiling for these two players is sky high, game one performance expectations should be tempered.

Here’s a look at how other 1st round rookie quarterbacks since 2010 fared when starting for the first time in their rookie season:

Player Team Pick Selection Comp/Att Yards TDs Ints Result
Blake Bortles Jaguars 3rd in 2014 29/37 254 1 2 14-33 loss to Chargers
Johnny Manziel Browns 22nd in 2014 10/18 80 0 2 0-30 loss to Bengals
Teddy Bridgewater Vikings 32nd in 2014 19/30 317 0 0 41-28 win over Falcons
E. J. Manuel  Bills 16th in 2013 18/27 150 2 0 21-23 loss to Patriots
Andrew Luck Colts 1st in 2012 23/45 309 1 3 21-41 loss to Bears
Robert Griffin III Redskins 2nd in 2012 19/26 320 2 0 40-32 win over Saints
Ryan Tannehill Dolphins 8th in 2012 20/36 219 0 3 10-30 loss to Texans
Brandon Weeden Browns 22nd in 2012 12/35 118 0 4 16-17 loss to Eagles
Cam Newton Panthers 1st in 2011 24/37 422 2 1 21-28 loss to Cardinals
Blaine Gabbert Jaguars 10th in 2011 12/21 139 1 1 10-16 loss to Panthers
Christian Ponder Vikings 10th in 2011 13/32 219 2 2 27-33 loss to Packers
Sam Bradford Rams 1st in 2010 32/55 253 1 3 13-17 loss to Cardinals
Tim Tebow Broncos 25th in 2010 8/16 138 1 0 23-39 loss to Raiders

As you can see, the first time performances since 2010 have been quite poor. So while the media will push Winston vs. Mariota (if it happens) as must see TV, don’t expect an electrifying performance. The storyline is compelling but the play is unlikely to be. Since 2010, 1st round pick quarterbacks have combined for a woeful 2-11 record with 13 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. Only three of the 13 listed above delivered a performance that can be considered impressive in their debut (Bridgewater, Newton, Griffin) and only two of those were able to win.

About Andrew Juge

I write about football.

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